New FL Poll- HRC 65% -Bernie 21%/ NJ Poll HRC 63% -Bernie 15%/MI Poll- HRC-57% -Bernie 25%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/current-democratic-and-republican-polling-in-florida/


http://publicmind.fdu.edu/2015/150629/



http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_MI_6302015.pdf

[HooptieWagon]

1. He's steadily closing the gap,

...as more people hear his message.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. Those numbers are truly remarkable.

It is truly a shame for him the rest of the nation's Democratic primaries and caucuses don't have Iowa's and New Hampshire's homogeneous demographics. Well, there's always Idaho and Nebraska.

[HooptieWagon]

3. He hasn't made a single stop in Florida, nor a single ad.

That's all word of mouth and social media getting him those #s. And it's only been a couple months...Hillary has "running" for 15 years.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. " A wish is a dream the heart makes."

" A wish is a dream the heart makes."

-Cinderella

[Ed Suspicious]

41. Condescend more. Makes me feel fuzzy inside.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

42. "When In Greece, do like the Greecians"

"When In Greece, do like the Greecians"

-Shaquille O'Neal

[Ed Suspicious]

43. That's the stuff! Just don't let it go to fisticuffs.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

44. I don't think I can top that.

[sheshe2]

51. Here~

On Fri Jul 3, 2015, 07:37 PM an alert was sent on the following post:

" A wish is a dream the heart makes."
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=423281

REASON FOR ALERT

This post is disruptive, hurtful, rude, insensitive, over-the-top, or otherwise inappropriate.

ALERTER'S COMMENTS

Very rude. We want our pony!

You served on a randomly-selected Jury of DU members which reviewed this post. The review was completed at Fri Jul 3, 2015, 07:55 PM, and the Jury voted 0-7 to LEAVE IT.

Juror #1 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: If we hid every post where someone sounded like a jerk, this would be a slim forum.

It's not over the top.

Plus, let people expose themselves.

(Also, is the misquote part of the dig, or just a misquote? This is pretty stupid.)
Juror #2 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #3 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: Annoying, yes. Hide-worthy, no.
Juror #4 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #5 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #6 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #7 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: FFS! What a stupid alert. Are you trying to silence all the Hillary supporters on this board? Stop with the alert stalking. Leave it!

Thank you very much for participating in our Jury system, and we hope you will be able to participate again in the future.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

54. When someone posts a pro-Bernie thread I largely leave it alone...

When someone posts a pro-Bernie thread I largely leave it alone unless Secretary Of State Clinton is used as a foil. I have been personally insulted at least four times in this thread...

[sheshe2]

58. Yes, I can see that you were.

[raindaddy]

56. It's early, what we're seeing now is name recognition

We saw the same thing with Obama.. The more people actually experience Hillary Clinton and her various ways of skirting the issues that Bernie specifically addresses daily the less they want her in the White House.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

59. I am out of snark so I will just wish you and your candidate well...

BTW, I just saw Louise Harrison on TV... A Beatles cover band is doing a concert in L A , I believe...


Huge Beatle fan here.

[raindaddy]

62. It's politics.. A little snark is fine

Same here with the great Muhammad Ali...
The fights I missed on TV watched them on YouTube ..

Enjoy your 4th of July weekend.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

68. That photo of him with the Beatles is iconic.

I love this one too:





Elvis gave Muhammad Ali a robe That said "The People's Champion" on it that cost $3,000.00... Ali wore it in his first fight with Ken Norton that he lost. He never wore it again.


They were actually more than casual friends...Elvis spent two weeks in Deer Lake which was Muhammad Ali's secluded rural Pennsylvania training camp because he wanted to get away from all the press and fans.


BTW, back to the Beatles... I saw Sir Paul in concert four times.

[raindaddy]

74. Bigger than life both of em

Never got to see Paul or the Beatles live. Bought all of Harrison's solo stuff and watched his bio twice..

[DemocratSinceBirth]

75. It doesn't even look like Ringo in that photo.

I remember buying the All Things Must Pass three album set , the Dark Horse album, and the Living In The Material World album...

I loved his work at the Concert For Bangladesh... Also, loved Leon Russell's work there too...

[freshwest]

82. *What* is happening in that picture? Please explain! n/t

[DemocratSinceBirth]

83. Love to talk about the Beatles and the GOAT

Love to talk about the Beatles and the GOAT (Greatest Of All Time)...

That photo was from 1964 when the Beatles were playing in Miami. They visited Muhammad Ali while he was training at the 5th Street Gym in Miami Beach:




http://www.5thstgym.com/

Did you know when the Beatles played Jacksonville they refused to play unless the audience was integrated...

[Sheepshank]

84. I wonder then, what was Bernie doing for 20 years that didn't get his name out?

Sure he was only a Senator...but to have been so invisible for so long....... Well, never mind I'm glad you guys are finally getting the word out. He's making the race quite interesting.

[Agschmid]

61. If by running you mean involved in politics sure...

Serving as a Senator, and Secretary of State.

By that measure Bernie has been running just as long.

What an asinine post.

[HooptieWagon]

64. No. By running, I mean she had her eye on the WH since moving out in2001

Her Senate seat and SoS gigs were just honing her name for the "grand prize", and she courted Wall St to build up her Rolodex. That's all quite obvious to anyone who's eyes were open.

[Agschmid]

65. So she had ambition?

What a ridiculous thing to fault someone for.

[HooptieWagon]

70. Just recognizing it for what it is.

You claimed she wasn't running. Now you admit it. Good job. Hillary has been running for POTUS for essentially 15 years. Bernie for a few months. Off course he's going to start well behind, but he's catching up much faster than even his supporters imagined. No wonder Hillary supporters are so angry...it looks like she's going to blow it again.

[Agschmid]

72. I admitted nothing, I've got no dog in this fight.

Being involved in politics and having ambition is something all our candidates have in common, you can't fault them for that.

[frylock]

7. Bernie Sanders doesn't care about black people.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. Why would you turn the most loyal group of Democratic voters into a political football?

eom

[frylock]

11. When did I do that?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. That's a horrible thing to say:

Bernie Sanders doesn't care about black people.

-frylock

Oh, and Senator Sanders is a fine man.

[frylock]

25. It's sad that you don't have anything better to do on a holiday than trying bait people..

in hopes of getting a hide under your belt.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

27. I am not the one who was making very unpleasant innuendos.

eom

[frylock]

31. Your dog whistle was heard loud and clear

[Comrade Grumpy]

32. Yep. n/t

[DemocratSinceBirth]

80. An impartial panel of our peers disagrees with you and him.

Please look below.

This is the second time in a week a supporter of another candidate has impugned by character and an impartial jury has rendered there disapproval:

A good name is better than fine perfume.

Ecclesiastes 7:1

[DemocratSinceBirth]

36. Social Science research must not be your forte./nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

40. Projecting seems to be one of yours...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

46. I swear to G-d I didn't alert on Post #38

eom

[MineralMan]

47. No, you didn't. I did.

Calling other DUers trolls is right out as a personal attack. Period. It always has been and should always be.

You posted some poll results. That's always a legitimate thing to do.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

48. I don't know why he called me names...

My dad had a ninth grade education, god bless his memory, but he taught me "if you don't have anything nice to say to someone, don't say anything at all."

[MineralMan]

49. Spirited arguments have their place on DU.

Name-calling does not. I alert rarely, but I alert when I see name-calling personal attacks. I will continue to do that as long as I am a DUer. We need civility here if we're going to accomplish anything.

Polls are useful information. How useful varies, but they're all useful.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

50. Several people have called insulted me in this thread. Ad hominem attacks ...

Several people have insulted me in this thread. Ad hominem attacks are often the last refuge of someone on the losing end of an argument.


I did make one snarky comment as an addendum to my thesis for emphasis that I regret but I would never, ever question the motives of my interlocutors. It's unbecoming.

[MineralMan]

52. I only alert on direct name-calling.

Other ad hominems don't get hidden by juries. Actual name-calling does a lot of the time.

People who attack the message can almost always do that with impunity. Attacking the messenger personally, though, is very bad form on DU and should be hidden.

[99Forever]

79. Yup.

Then later on, this one will be crying about how mistreated Hillary supporters are.

Kind of sad really.

[Joe the Revelator]

10. This is what you're resorting to? Race Baiting?

That's pretty pathetic, friend.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. I didn't mention race, friend.

I mentioned the composition of the electorate.

[Joe the Revelator]

15. Lame. And you know it.

Same old story.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. I am an empiricist...

I can not describe a phenomenon without describing a phenomenon.

Here's a statement:

If the Republicans can not improve their standing among African Americans, Latinos, and Asians, it is unlikely they will ever win another presidential election.


Is that race baiting or describing a phenomenon?

[1StrongBlackMan]

21. Well put ...

But likely to be ignored.

Noting that: a) Bernie's economic primacy platform plays well to white (males); and, b) those (geographic) areas where Bernie is speaking and making his gains, are heavily white, is not "race-baiting."

Though I would argue that deliberately misquoting Black people as saying, "Bernie doesn't care about Black people" could be.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

23. Throwing around terms like race baiter is intended to quell discussion

eom

[1StrongBlackMan]

24. Yep ...

Now. Get the hell off my lawn!

[still_one]

77. LOL. I like the get off my lawn analogy. Reminds me when I was a kid growing up

[BainsBane]

33. exactly.

Or accusing them of engaging in "Atwater tactics," "the Southern Strategy," or "pretending" to be black.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

37. It's a bullying tactic employed to stifle dissent.

It is literally frightening.

[ismnotwasm]

76. Yes indeed

Very.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

78. I have been here for over a decade, made some 55,000 posts, engaged in my fair share of invective...

I have been here for over a decade, made some 55,000 posts, engaged in my fair share of invective, but almost never questioned a fellow member's motives.

[Cha]

91. It's facts, sir.. just the facts. "If the Republicans can not improve their standing among African

Americans, Latinos, and Asians, it is unlikely they will ever win another presidential election."

Stopping their race baiting might be a step in the right direction..



EarlG http://www.democraticunderground.com/1017275822

[Comrade Grumpy]

35. I love junior high-level taunting. It adds so much to the conversation.

Maybe you should change your avatar to someone sticking his tongue out and going "Nya-nyah."

[DemocratSinceBirth]

39. I wear your patronizing comments with the same pride...

I wear your patronizing comments with the same pride that my old man wore the Purple Heart he was awarded for taking shrapnel in the eye and contacting malaria in the Battle Of Safi during WW ll...

[tularetom]

5. Keep on citing them polls, dude

You do realize its more than six months until the first primary, don't you?

Sander's message is steadily catching on, and Clinton doesn't wear well.

Check back here in three months and see how things look.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. If my aunt had wheels she would be a car, dude.

Dude, lol

[frylock]

8. Looking forward to the piling on after Sanders' victory..

really going to enjoy that like I did in 2008.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. I am looking forward to the Orlando Magic winning the 015-016 NBA Finals

Both are as likely to occur.

[frylock]

16. Keep on telling yourself that

[BainsBane]

34. In 3 months you'll say check back in 3 more months

and 3 more months . . .

[Doctor_J]

13. hopefully sanders will hang on until the debates

When Clinton has to finally answer some questions, and her policies are compared to Sanders' side by side, her money and media advantage may not be enough.

[rocktivity]

19. Way too early to be any kind of definitive

rocktivity

[hrmjustin]

20. Great news.

[SunSeeker]

22. K & R

[morningfog]

26. Those are great numbers for Bernie to start at in each state.

I am pleased with these numbers and expect them to tighten as Bernie spends time in the regions.

[orpupilofnature57]

28. Wouldn't be the first time FLA fudged the figures .

[DemocratSinceBirth]

29. How do you explain the numbers for the Garden State and The Great Lakes State?

Oh, I hope you are enjoying the Fourth.

[orpupilofnature57]

53. Go to the Cape at the end of the month, lying low . I don't feel a need to explain Jersey .

[DemocratSinceBirth]

55. I haven't been to the Garden State since I was a lil boy...

I'm old enough to remember Atlantic City before they had casinos.

[orpupilofnature57]

60. Friends of mine tell me it was Magical .

I'm going to North Eastham, Cape Cod .

[DemocratSinceBirth]

63. I was from NYC. I remember we went to the Howard Johnsons there because it had an indoor pool...

I remember we went to the Howard Johnsons there because it had an indoor pool. I also remember there was a Planters Peanuts store on the Boardwalk.


This is the late 60s... Gambling was supposed to save Atlantic City but it failed... I read that is because there are so many Native American (Indian) casinos in the NY-PA-NJ area so Atlantic City is no big deal...


It's nice to discuss something beside intra-party politics.

[orpupilofnature57]

71. Refreshing isn't it ?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

73. Yes...

Another thing I remember about yesteryear is all the cars you would see on the side of the Garden State Parkway in the Summer that overheated because car air conditioning was in in its infancy.

[questionseverything]

66. about nj

29% of the dems polled would NOT SUPPORT Clinton..no matter what

we can not win the presidency with numbers like that

PRESDB Is there anyone I just mentioned who you would NEVER support for president, regardless who they ran against? If yes, ask who [precoded] [N = 64]

Lincoln Chafee

14%

Hillary Clinton

29%

Martin O’Maley

24%

Bernie Sanders

11%

Wouldn’t vote (vol)

2%

Other (vol)

13%

DK/Refused (vol)

7%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

69. HRC will easily carry New Jersey and win the White House

A Monmouth University poll released Wednesday showed that Clinton would beat the Garden State governor in his own state 58% to 32%.

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/christie-crushed-clinton-2016-nj-poll-article-1.2103069

That's the only poll a NJ general election poll google search reveals, you are welcome to try to find others. I couldn't....

Also, wasn't there something about 50% of Republicants saying they wouldn't vote for their nominee if that nominee wasn't their original choice?


And nationally Secretary of State Clinton is doing quite well against her presumptive Republican opponents:


http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-bush-vs-clinton

[questionseverything]

81. my copy/paste was from the poll in your op

http://publicmind.fdu.edu/2015/150629/

less than 800 voters were polled, i can not find anything on their dem/repub breakdown but of the dems polled 29% that would never support hillary is huge

i am not a hillary supporter but i was shocked to see that many dems would NEVER support her

i honestly do not believe she can win the general

national polls mean nothing....only state polls matter

[DemocratSinceBirth]

85. How do national polls not matter in a general election?

For instance she is beating all her Republican opponents by 13 to 25 points in the latest CNN poll:


http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2015/images/06/30/trumpbushclinton.pdf


I understand that we have an Electoral College but the Electoral College follows the popular vote...There is not going to be a thirteen point divergence between the popular vote and the Electoral College. It's virtually impossible...

I fully expect those numbers to tighten but if she did win by thirteen percent she would easily win over 400 Electoral college votes.


If you do the research you will also discover she is carrying enough swing states to win the EC any way.

[questionseverything]

87. the popular vote?

tell that to president gore

here are the state to state results from 08......take away 29% of that dem support and obama would of lost

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2008#Votes_by_state

[DemocratSinceBirth]

88. Gore won the popular vote by .05%

Gore won the popular vote by .05%. Hilary leads her closest Republican competitor by 13%. That's twenty six times larger...

It's inconceivable that a candidate can win the popular vote by thirteen points and lose the Electoral College...


And you can't infer from a state poll of only Democrats how a Democratic candidate is going to do nationally...

All the available polling suggests Hillary is getting approximately ninety percent of the vote which is approximately what Barack Obama received in his two national elections.

[questionseverything]

89. the nj poll you posted says hillary 63%

plus 29% that would NEVER support her...so she is NOT @ 90%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

92. That's one poll from one state that doesn't even include HRC V Republican numbers:

All the other available aggregate polling shows HRC doing quite well.


Here:


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_bush_vs_clinton-3827.html


And here:


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_walker_vs_clinton-5335.html


And here:


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_rubio_vs_clinton-3767.html



And here:



http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_cruz_vs_clinton-4034.html



And here:


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_christie_vs_clinton-3766.html




And here:


http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-bush-vs-clinton



And here:



http://www.pollingreport.com/wh16gen.htm

Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence.


-John Adams

[6chars]

30. So HRC leads by more than 3-1, 4-1 and 2-1

and she's losing, right?

[Lucky Luciano]

45. That is pretty impressive for Bernie - a proud "socialist" that had 2% support recently.

I am totally ok with Bernie or HRC as president. HRC is probably better for my wallet, but it is tough to objectively claim that Bernie isn't better for the average person. No question Bernie is better for the average American family...and he knows enough to not play nice with the republican congress...though I doubt he could get much done with those psychos.

[TheNutcracker]

57. Go Bernie!

[Dawson Leery]

67. Though early, these are excellent numbers for

Hillary!

[tymorial]

86. Motivation for candidate support.

There was a questionnaire that was posted on here that paired you with candidates based upon your responses. I gave it to everyone I know and had them fill it out. At least 40 people took it and they all came up with Sanders in 1st. The gross majority still support Clinton. The biggest reason is they do not believe Sanders is electable. Others state that Clinton's name recognition along with the fact that they see Clinton as a 2fer with Bill being by her side. The rest have either refused to answer or claim they don't know. Which leads me to what I wonder... People supported Obama in 08 because they wanted to support a black man for president. Is the same thing happening here? Do not misunderstand me. While I have disagreed with Obama on occasion, I have found him to be an effective leader for the most part. I believe he could have been even more effective had he not had to deal with an obstructionist house. That being said, in the 08 primaries, I supported Clinton. My decision to do so was largely due to the fact that I felt Obama was under qualified for the position. I obviously voted for him during the presidential election but I did feel (and honestly still do) that Clinton was the better candidate. Clinton has even more experience this time but I find myself drawn to Sanders purely on stance and ideology.
-
Again, please do not feel as though I am questioning Clinton or Obama's track record. My question is on the people who make their decision and why... not the people themselves. While I find Clinton's relationship with wallstreet troubling, I do feel as though we could do worse with her in the White House. I do feel however that activism isn't a good reason to select someone for president regardless of their performance should they win.
-
Lastly, I will understand if this comment is too controversial.

[Cha]

90. Go Team Hillary! Mahalo DBS!

[DCBob]

93. Looking good for Hillary!!!