"OK, now Hillary Clinton seems to have some problems in Iowa"

[Divernan]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2015/07/02/ok-now-hillary-clinton-is-starting-to-have-some-problems-in-iowa/

The photo above was taken in Madison, Wis., a little more than 100 miles from the border of Iowa, where a reported 10,000 people came to hear Bernie Sanders speak Wednesday. The polling strength of Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) in Iowa is almost certainly in part due to the proximity of his state, so all of those excited Wisconsinites aren't what Clinton's team wants to see.

The new poll from Quinnipiac University shows Clinton's lead in the state down to 19 points. It was 45 points in Quinnipiac polling in May.

What's interesting is that this is not the same scenario as we see in Bloomberg's polling. Clinton has seen a tangible erosion of support among men and the very liberal -- to the point that she actually trails among the latter group. But she's also seen a big drop in support from women in the state. That's a 12-point drop among women, in a poll with a margin of error of 3.6 points. It's real.

When we were tossing cold water on the Bloomberg poll, we aggregated the anyone-but-Hillary vote to compare it to the front-runner. Here, you can see that the not-Hillary vote has markedly increased -- meaning that the number of people voting against Clinton isn't just switching between candidates, but that people are moving away from her. The contingent of people who prefer a not-Clinton candidate is at 44 percent. That's ... not good for Clinton. (M)ore polls like this one -- and more photos like the one at the top -- and Clinton staffers will need to start ordering Ambien by the crate.

[BrotherIvan]

1. HOLY SMOKES BATMAN!

How could this be??????????????????????????????????????? Gotta go post another poll and get the talking points out toot sweet!

[BrotherIvan]

2. From the article for those who do not follow link

What's interesting is that this is not the same scenario as we see in Bloomberg's polling. Clinton has seen a tangible erosion of support among men and the very liberal -- to the point that she actually trails among the latter group. But she's also seen a big drop in support from women in the state.

https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=&w=1484

The contingent of people who prefer a not-Clinton candidate is at 44 percent. That's ... not good for Clinton.

https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=&w=1484

[Divernan]

3. Thanks: those are important! And very encouraging for Bernie!

Please post these charts in the thread I started on the Sanders forum.

[elleng]

4. Interesting.

[L0oniX]

23. This will only piss off the "right" people.

[djean111]

5. I am starting to think that thinking in terms of discrete demographic groups might not really be the

way to go this time around. Have to think about that some more, but perhaps starting a campaign where, for example, Dem women were supposed to be a lock might have not worked out well. Bernie is just saying pretty much what he has always said, no focus groups that I am aware of, no tailoring his speeches or stances to any particular demographic. I am perhaps a bit bemused by the large number of Reddit subscribers - Bernie just answered their questions, he was not trying to target them specifically. Except, I guess, for talking with them in the first place.

[BrotherIvan]

6. If they broke out those groups by age, the change would be very significant

Younger than 50 are really going for Bernie. I think that might be because if you are older than 50, you remember a time before Raygun when Democrats represented your principles and so being a party loyalist was a fairly safe bet. Not anymore! And younger people are much more wary of the party machinations and fake populism.

This is just a theory I cooked up. I would love to hear if others agree or disagree. I have never seen so much loyalty to the party until I came to DU. Even when you are stabbed in the back, the party is above everything--that just doesn't work in my brain. I think that is the reason for the sharp divisions on DU. There are some people who are so angry that Sanders is not a Democrat in name, totally forgetting that he best represents the principles. Bizarre.

[Le Taz Hot]

7. Party Loyalty, particularly the Blind kind,

is more of a personality disorder having nothing to do with age. Almost every Bernie supporter I have been IRL contact with have been people over 50, 60 and 70.

Bernie supporters come in all shapes, sizes, backgrounds, races, religions and ages and we all have one thing in common -- we're working our asses off to ensure that Bernie Sanders is the next president of the United States.

[BrotherIvan]

8. Good on you

Perhaps it really is just the authoritarian follower mindset. In studies on propaganda, they have seen that some people are just plain resistant to it and some are very receptive. That must be what's going on with you and your fellow supporters. That's why an honest candidate is so appealing. I know it is for me.

[Le Taz Hot]

9. Serioulsy, we are the Activists.

We're the people who marched in the 1960's, '70's, '80's, '90's 2000's and 2010's. All this talk about how the Boomers sold out is just BS. Only about 10% of us were active back then but guess what? We haven't gone anywhere. We're still active. We still know bullshit when it's being handed to us and we'll continue to fight the oligarchy whenever and wherever we can.

Now, having said that, I think we're all in agreement that we are WAY ready to pass on the torch and I think the millennials will not only match what we did, but far exceed it. We're also all in agreement that we have their backs and will be activists until the day we die.

[imthevicar]

16. My 62 Y/O Boss,and

2 other co-workers all over 50 are enthusiastic about Sanders. don't count out vets and the over 50 crowd for "feeling the Bern".

[sadoldgirl]

20. I cannot agree with this totally.

Whenever I have gone to Bernie meetings organized
by PDA ( a group that pushed Bernie to run) I have
seen more gray or white hair than youngsters.

To the contrary to your idea, Most of these people
were children of the FDR generations, and they want those
ideas back.

Just my observations.

[sabrina 1]

10. I think Bernie has often chatted with people on Reddit long before he decided to run

president.

He is known to them so it makes sense they would be supporting him now.

[winter is coming]

11. I've always thought that was suspect.

The whole "soccer mom" or "NASCAR dad" stuff is crap. People are more complex than that, and a lot of them don't appreciate being pandered to.

[Fuddnik]

17. Do you think Bernie will go down to South Carolina and use that phony, cheesy, southern accent?

The phony twang that Hillary used?

[djean111]

18. To be fair, seriously, I was born and raised in South Philly, until I was about 21.

40-some-odd years later, having lived in Illinois for a long time, then Durham for a little while, then Florida since 1987 - if I am talking to old friends who stayed in Philly, I very quickly start talking really fast and with a "Saouth" Philly accent. Other than that, I have lost that accent completely. Hillary spent a long time in the South, maybe it is just that she relapses, like I do.
Changing accents doesn't bother me; changing/adding/deleting policy stances to suit the audience does.

[winter is coming]

12. Even with media's ever-present desire to create horse races,

it does look like the ground is shifting in Iowa. Realistically, HRC started off so high (largely due to name recognition) that it's only to be expected that she'd lose some support as time goes by, but this does not look good for her campaign.

[TerrapinFlyer]

13. Iowa.. the Great Bastion for the Progressive Movement

The Iowa polls are like the New Hampshire Polls.. meaningless at the National level!

[Fearless]

14. Where are the oversold Hillary rallies?

Where is the excitement in her camp? Looks like people were satisfied with an average candidate but really crave a good one.

[SoapBox]

15. Well said!

Go Bernie!

[zeemike]

19. I don't think she is counting on excitement to get her the nomination.

I think she is counting on money and the power of the political machine to get it.
And we shall see just how that works out for her.

[Fearless]

21. Good luck with that!

[L0oniX]

22. K & R