"I was a really staunch Clinton candidate (IA)

[Omaha Steve]

Supporters of Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders gather in the staging area before the Denison Independence Day Parade on Friday afternoon. (Photo: Kevin Hardy/The Register)


http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2015/07/03/bernie-sanders-unite-democrats-presidential-campaign/29682335/


Snip: "I was a really staunch Clinton candidate. I'm a woman and I really want a woman to be president," Andrie said. "But she's not as strong a candidate as she was. She doesn't quite have the energy she had before. There's something lacking there. I haven't quite figured out what it is."

Andrie said she's also "really concerned because Hillary's not getting young people out. They're so discouraged because they wanted so much more from Obama than what he gave them." Sanders is the kind of candidate that can fire up the youth, she said.

Earlier in the day, after his event in Storm Lake that pulled in 140 people, Sanders told reporters that his campaign is "putting together a strong infrastructure which is going to give us a strong chance of winning Iowa."



A supporter in Denison holds a sign refering to Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, who was active in the 1960s Civil Rights movement. (Photo: Kevin Hardy/The Register)

[JaneyVee]

1. Isn't she leading with millennials?

And every other demographic?

[shenmue]

2. Yep

[BrotherIvan]

3. Reddit says nyet

The polls that measured millenials were from late April. I'm sure there has been a huge shift. Plus, any poll that doesn't use cell phones is basically useless.

[JaneyVee]

8. The poll I saw on PPP was from 3 days ago..

She leads with millenials, women, men, blacks, whites, liberals, etc.

[BrotherIvan]

9. PPP poll

Paragons of accuracy.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. Your interlocutor cited a poll demonstrating she is doing well in a demographic

Your interlocutor cited a poll demonstrating she is doing well in a demographic you are suggesting she isn't. Surely you can cite a poll that undermines her claim.



As an aside PPP has been applauded for its accuracy, your suggestion they aren't notwithstanding:

Fordham's political science department has published a list of the most and least accurate pollsters of the 2012 campaign between President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney.

The top and bottom of the list are equally surprising. Two left-leaning Democratic pollsters top the list: Public Policy Polling, which nailed the election prediction if Florida goes for Obama, and the Daily Kos/SEIU/PPP poll, a weekly tracking poll.



http//www.businessinsider.com/most-accurate-polls-of-2012-election-obama-romney-ppp-daily-kos-gallup-rasmussen-2012-11#ixzz3exKG6CVp

[BrotherIvan]

16. You win

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. You should be out enjoying your Fourth and not cooped up arguing about politics like me.

The perils of getting older...

[BrotherIvan]

19. I am about to

Hope you do as well, whatever it may be. Hope you treat yourself to something good to eat! We may disagree, but I don't mean it personally.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

20. I live near a park in the SFV where there will be fireworks so I can watch them from my window.

Have a great rest of your holiday weekend.

[1StrongBlackMan]

40. 2012 gop re-visited ... only this time its the left wishing upon a star. n/t

[roguevalley]

81. The left are dems. who would say no.

[1StrongBlackMan]

84. No ...

There plenty of folks on DU claiming to be of the left that will tell you at every opportunity of the Democrats that are not of the left ... and when they are being particularly honest, they will tell you that they, themselves, are not Democrats.

[guillaumeb]

30. But how about all the other people?

Oh wait a minute, your list takes in most of the people. Amazing how people can always find a poll to support what they wish to believe. The poll I will believe will be conducted on election day.

[Admiral Loinpresser]

100. At this stage,

trends are more important than polls. But I need to get back to organizing for Bernie. Still more to be done and there is so much low-hanging fruit to harvest, that is is a waste of time to debate HRC die-hards. Let the best campaign win.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. Reddit is a polling organization ? /NT

[BrotherIvan]

17. It is one of the places milennials spend lots of time

Not on major news networks and not on landlines. Most milennials do not get their news from MSM tv.

[JI7]

24. most don't go in reddit. while the site might mostly have younger people

Younger people overall don't go on it.

[BrotherIvan]

45. You do know that reddit has millions of users, correct?

169 million distinct visits per month and 36 million user accounts. That includes international users, but that's not chicken scratch.

The Sanders reddit group has 56,488 members
The Hillary Clinton group has 313

Y'all post polls with sample sizes of less than 1000. I think reddit eclipses that by orders of magnitude especially when talking about under 50.

[JI7]

64. still not scientific , going by what you say Ron Paul should be President since he dominates

many websites which has a lot of users.

the fact is scientific polls show Hillary is leading among young people.

[AgingAmerican]

53. I work with lots of them

Most of them live and breathe Reddit.

[MADem]

32. Somewhere, I read the definition of a Reddit user as a fifty-some odd year old in a cubicle

PRETENDING to be a Millenial!!!



I've never once been polled on my cell phone, either!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

38. That goes to the old saw that the hot nineteen year old you are chatting with...

That goes to the old saw that the hot nineteen year old you are chatting with is a bald man in his fifties with a paunch instead of a stomach.

[MADem]

39. Or the young lady on the "phone sex" line....!

"Wanna go skinnydipping in the CEEE-ment pond???"

[djean111]

42. Well, my 20 YO grandson is 20, and he is a Redditor. He lives with me, no cubicle.

Saving up for college.
He introduced me to the Bernie subReddit, about 58,000 subscribers, lots of info on registering and voting, etc. Hillary has 303 subscribers. Like I have said elsewhere, Reddit does not dislike Hillary, they are just not interested because to them she is Wall Street, and Wall Street has not done them much good.

[MADem]

43. He just might be an outlier, not the 'rule!' nt

[djean111]

44. It really doesn't matter, I have no need to convince you.

I'll just trust what I see on Reddit, you trust your polls.
Neither of us was going to do anything like switch our support because of some polls or some (right now 56,484) subscribers to the subReddit for Bernie. Grandson and his also 20 YO friends (here in town) love Bernie and are now interested in Politics. Fun to watch!

[MADem]

48. I don't trust any polls--it's way too early, no matter what people say on DU.

DU said President Kucinich was a lock, or at least the nominee--I didn't believe DU back then, either!

Great discussion at this website, but I'm not taking my prognostications from the assembled pundits here...!

[BrotherIvan]

46. See post #45

That's quite a lot of 50 year olds in cubicles.

[MADem]

47. There are millions of fifty years olds in cubicles. You want me to see a post, put a link. nt

[BrotherIvan]

50. You win

[padfun]

83. I'm one

but only for two more months. Then I will be a 60 year old cubicle dweller.

[Elmer S. E. Dump]

85. I turned into one last December - 6 more years to retirement!!

If I can take it that long!

[AgingAmerican]

54. so out of touch

Nt

[MADem]

55. Yeah, here's one of those "youthful" redditors....

http://gawker.com/5950981/unmasking-reddits-violentacrez-the-biggest-troll-on-the-web

[AgingAmerican]

58. One?

Profound.

[MADem]

59. With a HUGE following--were they all teens? I think not.

Are these racist assclowns the "youth" of reddit, too?

More than "one" of those pigs in that group....and I doubt they're young, either.

[AgingAmerican]

60. You think Millennials are teens?

so out of touch...

[MADem]

61. No, but they aren't the bulk of Reddit users--GENX and up are.

And nearly half of the users are from outside the USA....!

Teens are about eight percent of the total users.

The site is not the powerhouse the rabid fans want to think it is.

It's trolly and nasty and cliquish. It's full of angry white males who are furious that they can't gratuitously insult individuals anymore.

It's not the center of moral thought or progress in the USA or the world, much as some might wish.

Step back from the keyboard--it's not as important as you think it is!

[JI7]

66. exactly, people can claim to be all kinds of things on the internet

[CoffeeCat]

65. My daughter is a Millennial...

…and she is very disinterested in Hillary Clinton. It's not that she doesn't like her. She doesn't care.

She has no memory of Bill Clinton and his Presidency. The Clinton name does not carry the weight that it did with older generations.

She has nothing against Hillary Clinton, but she has heard nothing from her that would spark interest or support from my daughter. She's heard plenty from Sanders that excites her and makes her want to support him. I will take my daughter to hear all of the candidates that come to our state. It's good experience for her. She'll of course, make up her own mind.

And my daughter reads Reddit and gets her news from Reddit, Twitter and other online sources.

Anyone who suggests that Sanders Reddit 58,000 subscribers to Hillary's 303 subscribers--means nothing--doesn't understand Reddit or the significance of that site.

[djean111]

70. Exactly. And - they can jeer all they want, it does not change things.

I think that, for millennials, the "political tribe" concept just does not exist. Don't know the ramifications, perhaps that means the 1% won, or something, but yeah, my grandson gets all of his news from Reddit and other online sources, too.

[Report1212]

101. She has enormous name ID and thats what gets her up in polls now

But the people who are paying attention -- like NH and Iowa -- she's losing those groups.

[BrotherIvan]

4. This is the most important part of the entire article

One audience member, 59-year-old Council Bluffs Democrat Richard Grondek, said he didn't think Sanders had a realistic chance of winning the Iowa caucuses "until he started drawing crowds like this."

BOOM. Exactly!! The bigger the crowds, win a few early caucuses, and he's warp speed. There will be a massive shift in his numbers. Some people want to vote for him, they agree with him, but they keep hearing the tired meme that "he can't win." The same one we heard about Obama in 2008. Once he won some early caucuses and Edwards dropped out, Obama started racking up wins.

Once it becomes clear that if Sanders can beat the most formidable opponent in the race--the most well-known, the most money, the most insiders--he can beat anyone, even Jebba the Bush.

[Ed Suspicious]

6. +1

[bvar22]

22. I feel the same way.

A few weeks ago, I believed that the best possible outcome would be for Bernie to pull Hillary to The Left (at least in campaign rhetoric....and it DID), but I didn't believe he could WIN.


I have changed my mind.
Bernie can WIN,
and I will be working harder to help him.

[BrotherIvan]

23. I'm still not certain he can overcome the party and the Clinton machine

He will be Dean screamed and red baited until next November. But I am getting more and more hopeful that people won't buy it after the Summer of Sanders. I hope the enthusiasm keeps up while the campaign gets boring and shitty.

[99Forever]

27. I have said for over a year...

... Bernie Sanders will be our next President.

[madokie]

25. Without a doubt

[MADem]

49. Crowds made up of white people....! nt

[BrotherIvan]

51. I'm too tired of fighting people who just want to snark

Have at it.

[MADem]

52. That wasn't snark.

The figures are the figures--Iowa is a predominantly white state: http://www.infoplease.com/us/census/data/iowa/demographic.html

[Omaha Steve]

62. Yet the white guy holds up a sign about Rev Dr Martin luther King Jr

Classy.

[MADem]

63. Why do you suppose that is?

Perhaps as a substitute for the lack of diversity in the crowd?

[Omaha Steve]

72. Perhaps not every white American waves a confederate flag

NEBR and IA fought for the North.

[MADem]

73. I'm not suggesting that anyone in that crowd would ever do such a thing.

There's no real reason for that kind of behavior.

The state is not diverse, though; the demographic information at the link above proves that rather decisively. The entire state is sparsely populated, relatively speaking--it has about as many people in it as the city of Chicago, but it's a homogenous caucasian population, not diverse like Chicago.

[Omaha Steve]

74. But blacks will know Bernie marched with MLK as the word gets out

50 plus years of marching by Bernie is a game changer on race.

[MADem]

78. I think it's nice that he showed up way back when.

But truth to tell, "What have you done for me lately?" is probably the question most will ask.

All politics IS local. Tip O'Neill had that figured out.

[Omaha Steve]

79. These and other questions...

Will be answered next year.

[Elmer S. E. Dump]

88. "nice that he showed up"

Sounds a bit condescending to me. Are you really getting that nervous about Bernie?

[MADem]

93. The sixties were a long, long while ago...and I'm not at all nervous.

Most people don't think he can win. Many minority voters do want to know "What have you done for me lately?" His appeal is to majority voters, and mostly males.

He's fun to listen to, but he's not perceived as viable. I don't think that will change much.


YMMV and probably does--nothing wrong with that, but don't expect me to modulate my POV to suit you.

[Elmer S. E. Dump]

95. We will see. Best of luck to you.

[DhhD]

77. It is a poster of Solidarity, that We the People will all walk together in a Movement toward the

renewal of the American Dream, as in, MLK's, "I have a dream ......". Bernie Sanders is our hope for the renewal of democracy and fair treatment in America. In my opinion, We the People have become the whipping boy of the TBTFBC-To Big To Fail Banking Complex.

[AgingAmerican]

56. The race card

nt

[MADem]

57. Uh, Iowa is a state made up of mostly white people. That's like saying

you're playing the "race card" when you note that the population of Ghana is largely Black.

So....big FAIL, there...

[YoungDemCA]

87. "The race card"

A turn of phrase invented by right-wingers who didn't like being called out on their racism.

[AgingAmerican]

92. "The race card"

Using race as a political football.

[Elmer S. E. Dump]

86. Is that Bernies fault?

Throw lots of crap at the wall and hope some of it sticks? Pathetic.

[Enthusiast]

68. +1!

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

76. "nothing succeeds like success."

Each and every supporter who bothered to show up at a rally, to donate, to talk Bernie up has boosted his actual chances by simply letting other people know they're not alone, that other people also like him.

[BrotherIvan]

94. There is an OP in there

People need to realize that they, by their support, are leading the way for others. Facebook likes and tweets, youtube views, that matters too because they are quantitative participation. So even if you don't have a single follower, start participating in social media because it will be counted for news articles and on tv. And going to events, that is the most visible way to support him. People are really doing a great job.

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

98. As a matter of fact

I signed up for Twitter specifically to follow him and boost his numbers. Now I also followed another 29 or so accounts of various sorts of interest, but I'm not tweeting, and have no real plans to.

[BrotherIvan]

99. They count retweets or likes

No need to make original ones. You can also tweet articles or pictures around the web and use his twitter handle or a hashtag like #FeeltheBern. They measure hashtag trends and such.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

80. As an early believer, welcome all of you latecomers to the Bernie Bandwagon. It's a lil crowded, but everyone scootch ova & make some more room.

Go Bernie!!!

[4dsc]

90. This is exactly what Hillary folks don't want to see

Until Hillary comes clean and is more specific about her plans the worse it gets for her. Ambiguity will not win this election.

[Ed Suspicious]

5. The hope is still there, the change wasn't quite as much as I wanted.

That's why there is fire for Bernie and not as much so for other more establishment candidates.

[BrotherIvan]

7. Yup

Obama paved the way for Bernie Sanders. This is the only time in modern history that a candidate like him has a shot.

[swilton]

31. +

Obama was a sell-out yes, but he did pave the way for reform...

[SoapBox]

10. Great post.

I admittedly used to like HRC and thought she was the best chance ever for a female President.

But...over the years, like the person in the article said, something has changed...I think it's the money. We got so royaly screwed by Wall Street and the Banksters (we still are) and I doubt she's going to even mention much regulation of them. My gut also tells me that she's just a weather-vane, turning which ever way the wind blows. And I swear if it's between her and Jebbie, he will win. There is Bush burn out but I think there is more Clinton burn out (I've got 4 single/divorced/widowed neighbor ladies that have already expressed how they "cannot stand the woman" and would never vote for her, ever).

Bernie has spent a lifetime, working for the 99%...his message has been consistent, honest and authentic.

I will work to make him President.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. Yet she handily beats him in all published polling.

If it's between her and Jebbie, he will win.

Yet she handily beats him in all published polling:


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_bush_vs_clinton-3827.html

This is the point where my interlocutor tells me the polls are meaningless because it's early so I should ignore them and I should rely on the opinion of a random internet poster because of a feeling in his or her gut.

[PADemD]

14. Watch for the tipping point.

If Hillary polls less than 50 per cent in Iowa, Bernie can win. Hillary is trending down, and Bernie is trending up.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. Let's not move the goal posts, please...My interlocutor said HRC would lose to JEB

And even in the unlikely event Senator Sanders wins IA and even NH his campaign eventually peters out because he has demonstrated little ability to attract African American, Latino, and Asian Democrats who will account for four out of every ten Democratic primary voters.

[Stainless]

26. Bernie has fought for civil rights since the sixties.....

African Americans will come around when they become better informed of the facts. Latino's and Asian's will also come around when they realize that Bernie is exactly what this country needs and that he has been consistent in his vision for many years now.

I was a Hillary supporter until I realized that she is merely a corporatist tool. Her DNC credentials are not what this country needs. The only serious challenge to the 1% is Bernie Sanders. Hillary doesn't have any inclination to stand with the 99% and she never will.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

28. The Clintons have been assiduously courting African Americans and Latinos

The Clintons have been assiduously courting African Americans and Latinos for over forty years since they were field organizers in south Texas for George McGovern in his 1972 presidential campaign. Many Latinos look at Hillary Clinton with something approaching veneration. Toni Morrison referred to Bill Clinton as the "first black president."

Such bonds aren't easily shaken and certainly aren't upset over night and I look forward to that proposition being tested as the campaign goes into the more heterogeneous states.

[Elmer S. E. Dump]

89. Bernie has time and righteousness on his side. I'm not worried.

Seems like the Clinton camp is having conniptions.

[appalachiablue]

33. Most of this is the truth and very close to my own fatigue of 20+ years of neoliberal

establishment candidates, their banker and corp. allies and what's happened to the country as a result. This will be the pivotal election for the future of the US.


Go Bernie!

[McCamy Taylor]

21. Thick ankles just are not hip.

[djean111]

41. I know you are a Hillary supporter and are being sarcastic (I assume, anyway) but I really

hated that in 2008, when I was a Hillary supporters, and I still hate it.

In any event, my 20 YO grandson is a devout Redditor, he loves Bernie, the Bernie subReddit has about 58,000 subscribers and is really well organized. Hillary's subReddit has 303 subscribers. Grandson says they don't hate Hillary or anything like that - she just represents business as usual. They love what Bernie has to say. Plain and simple.

[orpupilofnature57]

29. How a story of another Sanders Victory is dogged by an account of her polls, but never her

philosophies or plans .

[rhett o rick]

35. They are hanging on to their polls for dear life, like deja vue. She can't compete

with Sen Sanders because she agrees with him on social issues but agrees with the republicans on economic issues, war, foreign policy, fracking, Trade Agreements, NSA domestic spying. The people are hungry for a candidate with integrity.

[orpupilofnature57]

36. + 1000 Well Put !!!!!!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

37. Are you familiar with a gentleman's sweep ?

In basketball it refers to a best of seven series where the eventual winner lets the loser win one game to maintain a semblance of dignity...


That's where us supporters of Madame Secretary are now , leaning toward a modicum of charity.

[Enthusiast]

69. Integrity!

It's what we want!

We will accept no substitutes.

[WillyT]

34. Huge K & R !!! - Thank You !!!

[Enthusiast]

67. Bernie isn't just a candidate for president.

Bernie is also the heroic candidate, the patriotic candidate and the honest candidate.

Bernie is the single candidate that I will consider.

[GeorgeGist]

71. Cute anecdote ...

although I am perplexed at the meaning of "Clinton candidate"

[ChairmanAgnostic]

75. That's akin to the Chicago definition of an "honest politician."

Once bought, an honest politician stays bought. And Wall Street has invested millions in Hillary.

[CANDO]

96. Didn't they give Chelsea a "job"?

And isn't her hubby a hedge fund manager? Mr Mezvinski

[ChairmanAgnostic]

97. Tawdry, no matter how you look at it.

[Babel_17]

82. They want more than ice cream?

HRC looked good in 2007/2008 partly because she appeared fired up to roll back the damage done by the incompetency and lunacy of the Bush administration. Conditions have evolved, and times have changed, and so the question for our party is "Where do we go now from here?".

Framed in a perspective that lacks the struggle to defeat the Bush legacy's champions, McCain and Palin, the HRC campaign has to focus on how it will improve on what President Obama's administration has accomplished. And when you frame it like that, when the perspective shows Clinton's vision on one side, and Sanders vision on the other, the younger voters will run towards Sanders. Progressives who felt pushed to the side will choose Sanders. People who are tired of Democrats giving in to big money will tend to choose Sanders.

The enthusiastic Sanders voters who've donated time and/or money, or who talk up the Sanders campaign on social media, who go to rallies, are not in play. HRC can't sway that block of voters. Every block of voters that support other candidates is in play to be picked up by Sanders. Even women voters show a sharp downturn in support for HRC.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2015/07/02/ok-now-hillary-clinton-is-starting-to-have-some-problems-in-iowa/

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=2259

http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/07/04/bernie_sanders_pulls_closer_to_hillary_in_polls_spends_long_weekend_in_iowa.html

Sanders has the solid blocks of support to build on. This become more obvious every day, and with lots of photos and video to demonstrate it. People read the Sanders platform and like it. They see his support and think it looks like the real deal.

It's the real deal that people are looking for, in these very hard times.

[mother earth]

91. K & R! TY, Steve.