Why Bernie Sanders’s Momentum Is Not Built to Last

[Little Star]

Bernie Sanders is surging. He trailed Hillary Rodham Clinton by as much as 50 points in the polls a few months ago, but he has pulled within 10 points in New Hampshire, according to some surveys. He has doubled his support in Iowa over the last month. The signs of his support are palpable: Last week, about 10,000 people attended an event in Madison, Wis., and he announced that he raised $15 million in the first three months of his campaign.

But the Sanders surge is about to hit a wall: the rank and file of the Democratic primary electorate.

Mr. Sanders is now doing nearly as well as Barack Obama did among liberal voters in 2008. That makes him competitive in relatively liberal contests, like the Iowa caucuses or the New Hampshire primary.

But Mrs. Clinton still holds a huge lead among moderate and conservative Democrats — white and nonwhite alike. Whether Mr. Sanders can close the gap among these voters will determine the seriousness of his candidacy and whether he can pick up more delegates in other primaries. There aren’t many reasons to expect he will break through, and he certainly isn’t doing it yet.

If he doesn’t, he will lose by a wide margin.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/09/upshot/why-bernie-sanderss-momentum-is-not-built-to-last.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=second-column-region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0&abt=0002&abg=1

[Ichingcarpenter]

1. Hillary Clinton and Inevitability: This Time Is Different... same author

Feb /2015

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/22/upshot/hillary-clinton-and-inevitability-this-time-is-different.html?abt=0002&abg=0

[virtualobserver]

5. maintaining the inevitability shield is hard work.....

with Bernie rising in the polls.

[kenfrequed]

6. +1

Or something.

But, yes. I completely agree! They are getting kind of desperate at trying to stop another non-Hillary candidate.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. I believe you have the Nates mixed up, one's last name is Silver, the other is Cohn./nt

[Ichingcarpenter]

14. Nate Cohn wrote both articles n/t you are mixed up

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. My bad. You are correct./Mea culpa.

[global1]

2. Can Someone Here Define What A Liberal, Moderate And Conservative Democrat Is?......

It seems to me that Bernie's main message is an 'economic message'. I believe his message appeals across all of these labels as well as appealing to Independents and a lot of Repugs.

Don't count Bernie out just yet.

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

8. Conservative Democrats are Republicans who snuck in under the tent flap

and slapped on a D while still holding onto all of their Republican ideas about how to keep most of us working to enrich the few.

[LWolf]

19. His economic message

isn't going to appeal to the hardcore neoliberal Democrats; it will appeal to the rest.

Some Democrats support neoliberal candidates, not because they agree with the message, but because they're afraid the rest can't "win."

The hard work ahead is to overcome that fear.

[global1]

20. What Is A Neoliberal Democrat?.....

What's in a label?

Define these terms; comparre and contrast:

1. Liberal Democrat
2. Moderate Democrat
3. Conservative Democrat
4. Neoliberal Democrat

Do all the American People make these distinctions or is this just an exercise for the analytical political pundits and junkies?

[ChairmanAgnostic]

3. Wow, the Grey Lady REALLY hates Bernie and how he is

upsetting the Chosen One.

[Wilms]

4. I must need more coffee.

I can't stop yawning.

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

7. It only needs to last long enough to put him with more voters than the apparently

untrusted-by-voters Clinton and whatever clown he'll then face in the general.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. Could you please points me to the flaws in his analysis that invalidate his conclusions?

Last edited Wed Jul 8, 2015, 11:15 AM - Edit history (1)

Thank you in advance.

[Comrade Grumpy]

21. Or we could wait and see what actually happens.

This guy has an opinion. He's welcome to it.

[ibegurpard]

11. Guess we'll find out won't we?

[monmouth4]

12. My thinking is that HRC has pretty much peaked. Bernie just needs to catch up to her, which he will

[MelungeonWoman]

16. Mr. Obama. Mr. Sanders. Mrs. Clinton.

Am I the only person who is bothered by this?

[Recursion]

18. By the century-old editorial policy of using Mr. or Mrs. and a last name?

No. Why are you?

[Proud Liberal Dem]

17. The truth is

nobody knows what is going to happen until the primary votes start coming in. High poll numbers, increasing poll numbers, and large crowds aren't a sure sign of anything at this point. Bernie's a nice guy and seems to have some appeal but he will have to be tested wider and farther to see whether or not he can clinch the nomination.