"Election Forecast: Obama Begins With Tenuous Advantage" by NATE SILVER at the NYTimes

[applegrove]

Election Forecast: Obama Begins With Tenuous Advantage

by NATE SILVER at the NYTimes

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/07/election-forecast-obama-begins-with-tenuous-advantage/

"SNIP..............................................

The first look at the 2012 FiveThirtyEight presidential forecast has Barack Obama as a very slight favorite to win re-election. But his advantage equates to only a two-point lead in the national popular vote, and the edge could easily swing to Mitt Romney on the basis of further bad economic news.

Mr. Obama remains slightly ahead of Mr. Romney in most national polls, and he has had a somewhat clearer advantage in polling conducted at the state level. Mr. Obama would be about 80 percent likely to win an election held today, according to the model.

However, the outlook for the Nov. 6 election is much less certain, with Mr. Obama having winning odds of just over 60 percent. The forecast currently calls for Mr. Obama to win roughly 290 electoral votes, but outcomes ranging everywhere from about 160 to 390 electoral votes are plausible, given the long lead time until the election and the amount of news that could occur between now and then. Both polls and economic indicators are a pretty rough guide five months before an election.

The forecast works by running simulations of the Electoral College, which are designed to consider the uncertainty in the outcome at the national level and in individual states. It recognizes that voters in each state could be affected by universal factors — like a rising or falling economic tide — as well as by circumstances particular to each state. Furthermore, it considers the relationships between the states and the ways they might move in tandem with one another. Demographically similar states like Minnesota and Wisconsin, for instance, are more likely to move in the same direction than dissimilar ones like New Hampshire and New Mexico.

...................................................SNIP"

[Tx4obama]

1. K & R :) -- Lots of good stuff on page at the link in the OP - on the right side of the page

[mr_liberal]

2. I wish Ginsburg and Breyer would have retired

I think it was especially foolish and selfish of Ginsburg not to retire because its been obvious for a year now (because of the economy) that Obama could lose

Its too late now though; theres no way a justice would retire during a election year.

[bigdarryl]

3. There could be a depression on election day and Obama will still carry the popular vote

[jeanV]

4. The NYT title is slightly misleading

Election Forecast: Obama Begins With Tenuous Advantage

Go & check on Realclearpolitics.com, or any pollster site (Rasmussen, etc)

Obama started with a big lead end 2011, but it faded out.

'Obama's lead narrows down to a Tenuous Advantage' would have been a truthful title.


I hate spin, wherever it comes from.

[Drunken Irishman]

5. Then why do you do it?

Obama's current margin over Romney (average) at RCP is 2.6%.

At the end of '11, it was 1.6%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

So, what big lead are you talking about?

[jeanV]

6. On average of all polls, Obama's lead has vanished (as I said)

Here is the composite of all polls in 2012, with boxes added by me to differentiate lead/no-lead periods:

The original of the graph comes from this PoliticalDerby.com: http://politicalderby.com/composite-poll/

[Drunken Irishman]

7. 5/6/12 - it's 6/9/12...

That's a month old.

[jeanV]

9. Latest polls confirm what I was saying.

7. 5/6/12 - it's 6/9/12...

That's a month old.

No Obama lead in June either:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

[Drunken Irishman]

10. No they don't...

You're pointing to Rasmussen, one poll, that leans right. I just linked you to an average of all the recent polls, which shows Obama leading by +2.6%. You ignored it. Your whole point is not valid.

I'll do it again, since you obviously ignored it the last go around:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

Even Rasmussen has Obama up.

Here's another one from Pollster.com which shows Obama leading 46.7-44.2 - his largest margin since April.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2012-general-election-romney-vs-obama

Admit it. You're wrong.

[jeanV]

11. Mea culpa

I stand corrected

[jeanV]

12. I stand corrected, but my original contention about the NYT's title holds

Even when looking at the RealClearPolitics graph, the conclusion that obama's lead has eroded stands.

You can check from the Obama lead graph that the period of significant lead (>3%) has shortened.

[Drunken Irishman]

13. The graph shows how volatile this race has been...

Obama went from a significant lead a year out +6 at the start of February '11, to trailing in October. Still, he's led for much of your whole graph and more importantly, while there has been ups and downs, Obama's numbers always rebound. They did after taking a dive in April '11. They did after taking a dive in fall '11 and again in March and again in May. To say his numbers have eroded suggests he's on a downward trajectory. He isn't. Your own graph shows, over a prolonged period, his total is consistent, though it does ebb and flow.

[Godhumor]

8. No it is not, this is Nate's first forecast for 2012

So the forecasting begins here.