2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNew poll shows Trump leading GOP field, getting obliterated by Hillary in a general election matchup
Poll: Trump Leads GOP Field, but Trails Hillary by Huge Margin
In his latest rejoinder to Hillary Clinton posted on Facebook Tuesday morning, Donald Trump concluded with this statement about the presumptive Democratic nominee: The last person she wants to face is Donald Trump.
We will have to assume he wrote that line before seeing the results of the latest early poll on the 2016 field, this time from USA Today/Suffolk University.
On the one hand, the new poll contains good news for Trump. After leading Jeb Bush 15% to 11% in last weeks Economist/YouGov poll, Trump once again finds himself on top of the heap with 17%, compared to 14% for Bush.
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The bad news for Trump comes in the hypothetical general election match-ups against Clinton. While Clinton is only four points ahead of Bush, 46% to 42%, she leads Trump by a whopping 17 points, 51% to 34%.
Look for Trump to tout his success against Bush in this latest poll but conveniently ignore his dismal performance against Clinton.
http://www.mediaite.com/online/poll-trump-leads-gop-field-but-trails-hillary-by-huge-margin/
London Lover Man
(371 posts)As in Bernie vs the REpublicans?
Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)Recursion
(56,582 posts)He's lost all of them, but they were a few weeks ago.
Renew Deal
(81,859 posts)There is a lot of time left and people aren't serious.
ibegurpard
(16,685 posts)One can dream though
Az_lefty
(3,670 posts)yallerdawg
(16,104 posts)to stand by their values and vote for Donald Trump as Republican nominee for president!
Hell, I'll even cross over in my state's open primary and vote for the Trump!
Well - it's Alabama - they probably won't need me.
Oh please oh please...
still_one
(92,190 posts)JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)David Paleologos is a GOP shill who wants to make Bush look good and Trump look bad for obvious reasons:
Even Bill O'Reilly couldn't believe what he was hearing: David Paleologos, pollster for Suffolk University, was announcing on Fox News that he was pulling out of Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina for good. Romney, it seems, has them in the bag. "Weve already painted those red, were not polling any of those states again, Paleologos said.
This is an absolutely bizarre decision on its face. The Real Clear Politics polling average currently shows a tie in Florida, Obama up 0.3 percent in Virginia, and Romney up three in North Carolina. There's still nearly a month left until Election Day. How could a pollster possibly call those states for Romney?
...
"I think all three of those states are still toss-ups," Public Policy Polling's Tom Jensen told us. "Weve already polled Virginia since the debate and Obama was up by 3. I dont agree with his assessment, and I dont know why he would have made it without even conducting any polling after the debates."
Gary Langer, who runs the ABC News/Washington Post poll, quipped tartly, "With that kind of foresight, we should find out who he likes in the fifth at Aqueduct."
SurveyUSA CEO Jay Leve was harsher. "This guy from Suffolk is obviously a jackass," he said.
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2012/10/suffolk-poll-paleologos.html
Fuck, they should have given me a $500.00 finder's fee and I would have found them an untainted and unbiased pollster.
rocktivity
(44,576 posts)I mean, even a democratic socialist could...
rocktivity
BrotherIvan
(9,126 posts)should scare the shit out of everyone. That's margin of error basically.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/06/walker-bush-rubio-lead-gop-field-clinton-still-dominant.html#more
BrotherIvan
(9,126 posts)Look, if the number one reason to vote for Clinton is because she can beat Bush, then this number should scare the shit out of you. It scares the shit out of me.
And since you haven't been listening, I will reiterate what many people have been saying: that based on the midterms, conservadems lose. Period. If puts the lie to all of your arguments about the Supreme Court, etc. She is a very vulnerable candidate against Republicans. And this poll, and we all know you love polls, shows that.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)Clintons popularity in a comparatively uncluttered Democratic field reflects her better performance relative to Bush and Trump among her partisan and ideological base, as well as some key demographic groups. Shes viewed positively by 82 percent of Democrats, for example, while 63 and 57 percent of Republicans like Bush and Trump, respectively.
Further, while Clintons seen favorably by 76 percent of liberals
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trumps-popularity-rises-negative-clinton-regains-positive-territory/story?id=32450539&page=2
From the same poll her positive ratings are 88-6 among African Americans and 66-29% among Latinos
When you look at the poll of polls Madame Secretary's lead is well outside the margin of error:
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-bush-vs-clinton
Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence.
-John Adams
Now if you please excuse me I have to go back to watching the greatest president in my lifetime's Iran press conference.
Thank you in advance.
Gothmog
(145,242 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)See post #9
ismnotwasm
(41,980 posts)I can't believe Trump is doing as well amount Republicans as he is-- but then I could believe it when George W made it to the presidential primaries..
Iliyah
(25,111 posts)NOT.
There were several polls showing RMoney leading Pres O back in the day. One I believe "Pew" had RMoney taking over and leading with young "White" women by a huge margin. Blacks and other minorities were coming on board, blah blah. Even RMoney himself thought he had won, including, KKK Rove.
Like Pres O, HRC has polling companies who are more factual in their polling. Nevertheless, HRC will not let her guard down.
AgingAmerican
(12,958 posts)Then that one will flame out and the process will repeat itself many times.
trusty elf
(7,393 posts)[img][/img]