The Bernie Sanders Surge Is About Bernie, Not Hillary

[DemocratSinceBirth]

“The recent rise of Bernie Sanders,” wrote Vox’s Jonathan Allen last week, “points as much to [Hillary] Clinton’s vulnerability as Sanders’s strength.” Allen went on to argue that Joe Biden should run for president. “The Sanders surge shows that Democratic activists want an alternative to Clinton,” he explained.

We’ve seen this idea before. For at least a year, journalists have been urging, sometimes almost begging, Biden to enter the race. The more elaborate versions of the idea liken the 2016 campaign to 1968, a year in which the incumbent president, Lyndon B. Johnson, withdrew after the liberal, anti-war candidate Eugene McCarthy finished a close second in the New Hampshire primary. The nomination was eventually won by Johnson’s vice president, Hubert Humphrey, after Robert F. Kennedy (who had entered the race after New Hampshire) was assassinated. In the 2016 narrative, Clinton is Johnson, Sanders is McCarthy and Biden is some composite of Kennedy and Humphrey.

But these comparisons suffer from a fatal flaw. Unlike LBJ, who (mostly because of the Vietnam War) had approval ratings only in the mid-50s or low 60s among Democrats during the 1968 campaign, Hillary Clinton is beloved by voters in her party. In national polls, her favorability ratings among Democrats usually exceed 80 percent.

...

So if you’re going to speculate about a new candidate entering the race, at least do it in a way that’s consistent with the evidence. Since Sanders’s surge is mostly about Democrats liking a really liberal candidate, you could argue that Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren should run for president. She’s also extremely popular with liberals but carries less baggage than Sanders.2 But it’s going to be hard for any Democrat to beat Clinton as long as she has an 80 or 85 percent favorability rating within her party.


http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-bernie-sanders-surge-is-about-bernie-not-hillary/

[William769]

1. Kick & Recommended.

[onehandle]

2. Bernie 'activists' wanted Elizabeth Warren about five minutes before she declined for the 20th time.

The Bernie Sanders 'Surge' Is About 'Not Hillary,' Not Bernie.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

3. It's true I was a big Elizabeth supporter & was bummed she's not runnin. But now, it's ALL about Bernie. Course, it don't hurt that Hillary is an awful campaigner.

Go Bernie Go!

[MoonRiver]

5. "Awful campaigner" = 35 pts ahead of your guy?

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

12. Ummm...yeahhh...I shuda said Hillary is a "worse than awful" campaigner considering she hada 60-point lead when she began seeking her coronation...

Now that her lead has been cut in half in only a few short months, it's pretty clear there's a real nomination battle being waged and, at this rate, Bernie soon will be trouncing Hillary, maybe even by the end of the summer.

Go Bernie Go!!!

[MoonRiver]

14. Dream on, friend, dream on.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

16. As the Everley Bros used to sing: When I want Bernie in my arms...When I want him & all his charms...Wheneva I want him... All I have to do is dream...

...Dream, dream, dream...

of Berrrnnniiiieeeee!! yesssss!!

[cascadiance]

22. We're just remembering what happened in recent history a while ago...

History is not on Hillary's side, even with a big lead.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

25. She's 40 points ahead at this point using the same methodology

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-democratic-primary


What's twenty or twenty five points among friends, any way?

[LiberalLovinLug]

30. thanks for the chart

I was wondering what was in the news at that exact time when it looks like Obama suddenly surged, and Hillary dropped. Sometime in the late fall of 2007. Was this when Hillary had her 'mistaken" recollection about being under fire in Bosnia? Or something Obama said? Just curious.

[cascadiance]

34. Well it was during primary season, and it was about the time that Edwards pulled out of the race...

... right at the end of this poll and when Obama surged in late 2007 was about the time that the road game started and campaigning for the Iowa caucuses was in full swing then.

When Bernie is out on the road campaigning during primary season, I would expect surges during those times for him too, as people get to know him by meeting him in person more then too.

[LiberalLovinLug]

36. hmmmm

It just seems like that was the definitive turning point for both candidates, and whatever that was it happened in the time frame of one or two days. From one days news events, Both candidates reversed direction dramatically. There was no overlap at all. Obama went up, and Hillary went down, and it never changed. Curious.

[cascadiance]

37. It's interesting to read a Des Moines Register Article from that time a month before Iowa caucuses..

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071201/NEWS09/71201009

... where they talk about Obama surging to the lead in their polls then. It would seem like there were factors in her support for a war with Iran then amongst other things that had voters shift to supporting Obama. Probably the January 4th caucuses win for Obama solidified his upward swing then too.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

54. Hillary supporters, like the candidate herself, are in complete denial, but the trend lines don't lie. The good news is there's still room on the Bernie bandwagon. Everyone skootch ova...all aboard!

[London Lover Man]

40. Moving goalposts?

Last month it was 60 points....

[MoonRiver]

52. I don't move anything. Just reporting the facts.

Not surprising that Bernie has caught up some. I expect him to top out pretty soon.

[JaneyVee]

31. "Awful campaigner". She won the popular vote over...

Obama, arguably the greatest campaigner in US history.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

55. Yes but 4 those of us who understand politics & that Obama came from complete obscurity 2 defeat the mighty Hillary, viewed by most as unstoppable-the closest thing to a sur bet-it's clear she was

BEYOND AWFUL as a campaigner.


Hillary's continuous missteps in this campaign show she has learned nothing from her past mistakes and history will repeat itself.
Hillary is feeling the Bern! Love it! Go Bernie Go!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. Warren would have the same problem expanding her base beyond what Sanders has expanded his base.

[onehandle]

9. The important thing is that Secretary Elizabeth Warren has had several private meetings with...

...our next President, Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Oops. I've said too much...

[MoonRiver]

10. Got it!

Whatever cabinet position she wants, she would ace!

[PoliticAverse]

18. Yeah I can't wait to see Hillary appoint Warren Attorney General...

Which is probably about as likely as Donald Trump being elected President of the US.

[MADem]

51. Why would she appoint Warren AG? Warren isn't a crimefighter.

Treasury, or Fed Chair, is her wheelhouse.

[London Lover Man]

41. Thus this question: Who is their base?

All I see from Clinton is this: Establishment Dems and low info Democratic voters who doesn't even do their research.

Bernie, on the other hand, has all the progressives, independents and Republicans who thinks their candidates are insane.

And Bernie wins on both counts.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

42. Thus this question: Who is their base?

All I see from Clinton is this: Establishment Dems and low info Democratic voters who doesn't even do their research.

Hillary's base is African Americans, Latinos, Asians, glbtq persons. and down scale whites. if you believe they are "low info Democratic voters who doesn't even do their research " there is nothing I can do to disabuse you of that notion.

[raouldukelives]

15. Well, I can only speak for myself but I've always liked Bernie more.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10024159835

I'm not sure where Warren was clocking in at Presidential declines at this OP's point.

Maybe the 18th refusal?

[lunamagica]

28. Right. Where was the "Draft Sanders" movement. One minute E. Warren was our only hope,

the next minute Sanders was the most perfect candidate ever in the history of candidates... huh?

I wonder what would happen if Elizabeth Warren changed her mind and entered the race...

[Luminous Animal]

33. The "Draft Sanders" movement definitely exhisted. It even had state affilitates.

There was a "Draft Sanders" for 2012, as well.

[lunamagica]

39. Not on DU, anyway. On DU it was all about Elizabeth Warren. eom

[Iliyah]

6. K & R

The fixation on the "surge" outweighs any information that follows. "Beloved" by voters of her party holds no water since on the DU HRC is hated.

Thank you, DSB!

[Maedhros]

17. Not hated - opposed, with reason. [n/t]

[Ed Suspicious]

21. This. Anything else is absolutely dishonest.

[sufrommich]

8. Good analysis from 538, as usual. nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. Nate is invariably right and seldom wrong...

Even when it comes to sports his analysis and prognostications are stunningly precise and accurate.

[London Lover Man]

43. Except for a few problems.

He's not sampling the right amount of people, and he's underscoring the disaffected and non-voters.

But on the other hand, you can praise Nate all you want, but at the end, his libertarian streak will show.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

44. He could be an anarchist for all I care...

His work stands on its own.

[London Lover Man]

46. His work shows that he is capable of being the President of the United States.

Clinton's barely worked and thinks she is entitled to the mantle since 1992.

100% name recognition, and her polls are slipping to a soon-to-be-previously-unknown candidate by the name of Bernard Sanders.

It must be aggravating to you to see that..

[DemocratSinceBirth]

49. See Post 40

I have a better chance of running through Hell in a gasoline suit than BS has of deposing HRC

[sufrommich]

50. Clinton has barely worked?

That's an interesting statement.

[okasha]

11. i love the smell of reality in the morning.

Go, Hillary!

[SoapBox]

19. Dear Nate...

Let me guess with candidate you support? Hmmm...

And all the use of "really liberal" when talking about Bernie...well, news! Income inequality, college debt, immigration issues, etc. etc. etc.

Well, those aren't very liberal...they're damned mainstream issues.

Sounds like you are spending too much time in the big money bubble, Nate.

[sufrommich]

20. This is what the GOP accused him of when polling

didn't go their way.They accused him of being a democratic plant. He makes his living off his reputation for being accurate,he's never going to throw that away for a politician.

[thesquanderer]

24. I agree. Ad hominem attacks are bad no matter which side you're on. (n/t)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

26. The guy is a sage...

He is rarely wrong about anything, period...

[thesquanderer]

27. Yes, but mostly he's great with numbers.

Subtext can be more subjective. Moreover, numbers can change over time. The farther out you're extrapoloating, the more room there is for things to move a different direction.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

29. That's why his models are dynamic...

But I watch his politics and sports number crunching and he is just so good.

[London Lover Man]

45. And you're ignoring the downward trend that Clinton has..

And getting worse by the week...

The more people that learns and knows about Bernie, the more they are ready to nominate him for the Democratic spot.

You can yell at me that Clinton has such a huge lead, but all I have to do is remind you of 2008, and the fact that Bernie is even better than Obama, and history repeats itself.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

48. She is nearly forty points ahead... If gets within ten I will sweat...

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-democratic-primary

Bernie is even better than Obama,

That's like saying the guy in the dark trunks is better than the guy in the light trunk at boxing:

[Gamecock Lefty]

23. “Awful Campaigner” “Hit Her Ceiling” “Corporatist” “Coronation” Yawn . . .

A lot has been said about Hillary hitting her ceiling. That makes perfect sense when nobody was running against her. But here’s the deal, nobody else in the race will ever match Hillary’s ceiling. None. They’ll always be clawing and crawling and scraping and inching out every percent trying to catch Hillary and she’ll always be looking at them in her rear view mirror.

Objects, this time, are not closer than they appear.

RAISE HILL 2016!

[London Lover Man]

47. The objects are MUCH closer than they appear

You can scream GO CLINTON GO until you are hoarse, but at the end, Clinton will not be the nominee, and wouldn't even muster anywhere close to the necessary delegates she needs to close out Bernie.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

32. Funny how the comments are all about Hillary.

[mmonk]

35. Different times, different issues.

[NCTraveler]

38. K&R nt.

[hack89]

53. "Sanders is winning about half the support of white liberal Democrats, ..."

Sanders is winning about half the support of white liberal Democrats, but little support from other groups within the party. That works out to around 25 or 30 percent of the vote in Iowa and New Hampshire but more like 15 percent among Democrats nationally.

And that is Bernie's problem in a nutshell.

[tymorial]

56. If these posts were musical compositions

They would all be variations on themes. Bernie can't win. Hillary isn't progressive. The only reason people support Bernie because they don't like Hillary. Hillary is in wall street's pocket. Bernie only has white supporters. Bernie doesn't care about gun control. Hillary isn't progressive. Bernie isn't progressive. Hillary isn't progressive. Bernie isn't progressive. Hillary isn't progressive. Oh I repeated myself there. Sorry.