The “I would never vote for him/her” factor: Candidate Negatives - the race was never tighter
The “I would never vote for him/her” factor: Candidate Negatives - the race was never tighter.
The fact is, Americans rarely get to vote for their favorite candidate – when Election Day rolls around, it’s usually a matter of the least un-favorite name on the ballot takes all the chips on the table. That’s often the case as political parties tend to nominate candidates that a lot of people intensely dislike.
We are all used to seeing polls that measure favorables, and that is exactly that leading candidates in nominating battles put forward as proof of their ability to win the General Election. We have been shown a lot of those polls here in recent months. It goes along with the “inevitability” meme. But, what the leading candidate may not want you to realize is that a wide variety of polls show that the frontrunner’s negatives are as high or higher than her positives. In other words, more people say they won’t vote for Hillary than will vote for her.
This is nothing new – it was that way in 2008, and – fortunately -- the Democratic Party was prepared to put forward another candidate. As candidate Obama observed in February, 2008: "I think Sen. Clinton starts off with 47 percent of the country against her. That's a hard place to start if you want to win the election," he said.
Will we be so wise and fortunate, again?
HRC: A recent AP poll shows that nearly half of all Americans have a negative opinion of her.
Just 39% of all Americans have a favorable view of Clinton, compared to nearly half who say they have a negative opinion of her. That's an eight-point increase in her unfavorable rating from an AP-GfK poll conducted at the end of April.
The drop in Clinton's numbers extends into the Democratic Party. Seven in 10 Democrats gave Clinton positive marks, an 11-point drop from the April survey. Nearly one-quarter of Democrats now say they see Clinton in an unfavorable light.
"I used to like her, but I don't trust her," said Donald Walters of Louisville, Kentucky. "Ever since she's announced her candidacy for the presidency I just haven't liked the way she's handled things. She doesn't answer questions directly."
And,
http://www.gallup.com/poll/183158/hillary-clinton-unfavorable-score-ticks.aspx
May 1, 2015
PRINCETON, N.J. -- Hillary Clinton's favorable rating from the American people has been steady -- near 50% -- all spring, but her unfavorable rating has inched higher and is now 46%, up from 39% in March. At the same time, the percentage of Americans with no impression of the former first lady, U.S. senator and secretary of state has gone down.
These high HRC unfavorables are almost exactly where they were eight years ago, as numerous polls have shown. This from 2008:
We looked at the times the USA Today /Gallup Poll asked voters whether they had a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Hillary Clinton, going back to January 2007. Her negative percentage fluctuated between 40 and 52, but the average of 21 polls came out to 47.
ABC News and the Washington Post have asked the question at least four times since January 2007. Her unfavorable ratings on that poll came in between 48 and 40, with an average of 44.5. CNN polled four times and found unfavorables between 39 and 44, with an average of 41.5.
Obama's unfavorable ratings tend to be well under 40 percent. In several polls, his unfavorable ratings are in the 20s.
Not every poll rates her unfavorables consistently as high as 47 percent, and poll numbers are always a little bit squishy. But, the USA Today /Gallup Poll has polled often on Clinton's unfavorables, and the average of 21 polls puts her negatives at 47 percent. We find that to be about as solid a poll figure as you can have, so we find Obama's statement True.
JEB BUSH: This does not necessarily play into the GOP’s hands. Jeb Bush is afflicted with the same problem as Hillary:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2015/02/25/the-idea-that-jeb-bush-is-going-to-run-away-with-the-republican-nomination-makes-no-sense/
(T)he topline numbers aren't even the thing that should scare Bush the most in that poll. It's that he is both well known (fewer than one in five voters didn't offer an opinion of him) and not all that well liked (41 percent favorable/40 percent unfavorable.)
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2015/02/25/the-idea-that-jeb-bush-is-going-to-run-away-with-the-republican-nomination-makes-no-sense/
BERNIE SANDERS: But, what about Sanders? Where is he in this Anybody But the Above race?
He has his own problem with 60 years of Cold War labeling.
A new Gallup poll shows that 47 percent of Americans would consider voting for a socialist candidate. Gallup has been polling Americans on their voting preferences for candidates of different backgrounds since 1937, but this year was the first time they inquired about socialism.
When broken down on party lines, a socialist candidate would earn the consideration of 59 percent of Democrats, 49 percent of Independents, and only 26 percent of Republicans. Overall, socialism charted the lowest of all the backgrounds referenced in the poll. Atheist and Muslim candidates ranked second- and third-lowest among the American populace, at 58 and 60 percent respectively.
Bottom Line: It’s a Virtual Three-Way Tie
Right out of the box, about half would never vote for Hillary or Jeb, while roughly the same percent wouldn’t vote for a Socialist. We know that the first two are long-term disabilities.
Bernie Sanders has the lowest personal negatives, as he has been in the national spotlight for just a few months - it is largely up to him to define himself and his own legacy. And, he probably is the only one who isn’t permanently, personally disliked by so many. Advantage Bernie.
They're all a lot closer to each other than you may think, when you factor in the negatives.
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