2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumPoll Finds That If Trump Runs As An Independent, Democrats Will Win In A Landslide
SNIP
....The Republican Party will already begin 2016 in a big Electoral College hole. Statistically speaking, the GOP will already require a dramatic shift in the electorate to win the White House. A Trump third-party candidacy of modest popularity would make the election unwinnable for the Republican nominee.
Donald Trump is not a serious threat to win the Republican nomination, but if he stays in the upper tier of candidates through the early primaries, Trump and his ego could launch an independent bid for the White House.
Some Republicans already believe that Trump is a Democratic plant that has been sent to destroy their party, but Republicans created Trump as a political entity, and it would only be right if he ended up costing them any chance of taking back the White House.
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http://www.politicususa.com/2015/07/20/poll-finds-trump-runs-independent-democrats-win-landslide.html
Gothmog
(145,631 posts)misterhighwasted
(9,148 posts)I'm not sure how serious he is, what his purpose in this campaign is, or if this is just what a billionaire does for entertainment.
apnu
(8,759 posts)He could blow 1 billion on a failed presidential bid, and that would affect absolutely nothing in his life. In fact, he'd probably be worth more having run and failed and blown a cool billion on his ego exercise.
Adenoid_Hynkel
(14,093 posts)I tend to think he isn't seriously committed to it.
But, having lost his TV show, he's going to need something to keep his ego in the headlines, so maybe....
If he doesn't run a third party, the GOP is going to have go out of it's way to placate him.
Either way, good news for us.
liberal N proud
(60,346 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,716 posts)gollygee
(22,336 posts)Run Donald Run!
bvf
(6,604 posts)I'll bet on it. The Kochs would blow him up real good (uh, figuratively, of course), before they would let that happen.
ericson00
(2,707 posts)because even tho as the poll shows, Bush gets hurt by Trump a lot more, notice how Hillary does lose a few points enough to keep her under 50%. The media has tried to like this to Ross Perots's supposed effect, which is nothing but a lie. I've shown this debunked in further detail. By far the most damaging thing that happened to Bill Clinton politically (and the center-left agenda) was the 50% of the vote thing; it ruined his mandate twice and hurt him in the media, which brought about Whitewater, Travel"gate," and was the GOP's excuse for their crap. The Perot-myth also gave cover to Clinton haters on the fringe-left and Dixiecrat wings too, hence why some allowed the Whitewater vultures at him. It also hurt his legacy too and gave the GOP an excuse to keep running nutties. I'd rather Hillary win 50.01% to 49.99% with 270 electoral votes than win 46-30-20-remainder with 400 electoral votes.
Trump or no Trump tho, I think Hillary will beat Jeb Bush by at least 8 points regardless and with at least 350 electoral votes. But she needs both the mandate, and also the respect of the left; the effect of Perot keeping Clinton under 50% also took that away in part. I don't know why anyone thinks Bush can win; his brother left with approvals lower than those Jimmy Carter left with, and close to Nixon. Billy Carter coulda been a billionaire and not a drunk and still have lost the 1988 election if he had run and been nominated.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,716 posts)John Kennedy did not have a majority either and he said it affected the legislation he advocated.
ericson00
(2,707 posts)because in most cases, a plurality is as good as a majority. In countries with parliaments, the party with the plurality of seats almost always runs the government anyway, even if they don't win a majority. In most runoff elections, the first place plurality winner wins the majority vote. Some countries have plurality elections like us but with 40% as the cutoff. I wish if Reagan had to have won 1980, he'd just gotten 49.8 instead of 50.8, because then this talking point might not exist, as Reagan is the GOP's god. The Perot lie is also in part a defense of Reagan: they want people to forget that in 1992, his legacy was not popular. People voted Bush Sr. out because they were tired of Reagan/Bush trickle down economics.
JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)Or he'll be bribed to drop out
mmonk
(52,589 posts)cyberswede
(26,117 posts)Someone should start a "Draft Trump" campaign when he's eliminated from the Republican primary field.
Sheepshank
(12,504 posts)Can't alienate Trump for fear he does splinter off on his own.
Can't support him and for fear of irreversable damage to the whole party.
I feel just awful for them.
Bring me wine!!!!!