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2016 Postmortem

demwing

(16,916 posts) Mon Jun 25, 2012, 08:28 PM Jun 2012

Interesting thing about the Bloomberg "Outlier" poll

It shows Obama over Romney:

Obama - 53%
Romney - 40%
http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/rQyA68BW5P20

Which is not that far off from the Intrade %s each candidate currently pulls:

Obama - 53.6% likelihood of winning
Romney - 42.3% likelihood of winning
http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?eventId=84326

Yeah, I get that we're looking at different data sets.

Intrade says that is the election were run 100 times, Obama would win 53 times and lose 47 times.
Where as Bloomberg reports that if you ask 100 random people who they would vote for, 53 would say Obama, 47 would not.

Somehow, it makes me inclined to believe that Bloomberg is not as for out as some think.

2 replies

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Interesting thing about the Bloomberg "Outlier" poll (Original Post) demwing Jun 2012 OP

i don't believe it is an outlier. I believe corporate media *needs* to have a close race BlueCaliDem Jun 2012 #1

So Bloomberg is not "corporate media"? Marzupialis Jun 2012 #2

BlueCaliDem

(15,438 posts)

1. i don't believe it is an outlier. I believe corporate media *needs* to have a close race

Reply to demwing (Original post)

Mon Jun 25, 2012, 08:31 PM

Jun 2012

in order to rake in all that campaign dough in campaign ads to see their bottom line get nice and fat.

Marzupialis

(398 posts)

2. So Bloomberg is not "corporate media"?

Reply to demwing (Original post)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 06:53 AM

Jun 2012

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