NBC/WSJ: Clinton-59%, Sanders-25%

[Adrahil]

Here's the poll:

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Components/Photo/_new/15313JulyNBCWSJPOLL.pdf

Couple of quick notes. This one is without Biden. Polls without Biden tend to boost Clinton's numbers, and it does here too, keeping them up around 60%, though still well below the last NBC/WSJ which showed her at 75%, which was likely an outlier (not other poll showed her that high). Sanders shows his advance, but the 25% number, a high for him in national polls, is not consistent with other polls coming out, and will probably prove to be an outlier. I think Both HRC and SBS fans can take something positive from this one. SBS hits his high mark so far, but HRC is still dominating at more than a 2-1 advantage.

[Cali_Democrat]

1. So pro-Biden folks will gravitate to Hillary, not Bernie

This is what I always suspected and other polls over the last few months have confirmed this.

Also if you look at this poll, it shows that a lot of people would actually choose Biden as their second choice:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=493985

This shows that there are a lot of Dems that just aren't that into Bernie for whatever reason.

[Adrahil]

2. That's becoming fairly apparent, I think.

IN a bunch of different polls now, it seems when Biden is not included, his supporters are drawn largely (but not exclusively) to HRC. This makes sense, given what we've seen in the first choice/second choice numbers, and the results seem pretty consistent.

[DemocraticWing]

3. How would we read this poll if it were, let's say HRC 45%, Bernie 25%, Biden 15%

I think a big point here might not be whether Bernie can get to 50% among primary voters, but if he can get to a plurality in enough early states to gain momentum, name recognition, and viability among voters in later states. If Biden enters the race, and if he's taking away from Hillary, that goal seems more reachable. Obama only had to get to 38% in a primarily 3-way race in Iowa in 2008, and while he was closer to Hillary initially (and flat out tied with her nationally going into the caucuses) it was basically a 3-way tie in Iowa in August 2008 with a big Clinton lead nationally.

Of note: NBC/WSJ poll from July 27-30, 2007 had HRC 43%, Obama 22%, Edwards 13%

[Fearless]

4. ^^^^ This ^^^^

[Adrahil]

5. There are still a lot of polls with Biden in them.

And HRC is still typically 30%+ ahead in them. If Biden actually RUNS, I could see him pulling more from Clinton, but he'd also pull from Sanders, and could very well become the second place runner.

I think it's possible Sanders wins Iowa (which tends to favor insurgent candidates a bit), and NH (which is right up his demographic and regional alley). But can he parlay that into victories down the road? I don't know. I doubt it unless something changes fairly drastically.

For now, the the polls seem to be stabilizing, though it will take a couple weeks to see if they really are or not. The polls are a bit noisy.

One note too... while it's true that one poll showed that kind of spread in 2007, most polls showed the race much closer by 08/2007 (typically a 10 point or less spread, with some even showing Edwards in the lead)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. This race looks more like 00 than 08 and Al Gore ran the table despite polling scares in NH.

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh2dem.htm

[brooklynite]

8. The flaw in your argument is that the early States are the easy ones...

...relatively compact, voting one at a time. Then you hit Super Tuesday, with 10 States nationwide, including States like Texas, where winning would involve racking up 1 million votes. This is where Sanders' rallies and speeches approach won't work as well. You need paid staff on the ground and paid advertising to boost awareness for people who don't go to rallies.

[DemocraticWing]

11. He's raising quite a bit of money

And I suspect he would raise quite a bit more if he started winning states. He's not the fundraiser that Hillary is, but he's still going to rake in enough cash to do the things he needs to do. The law of diminishing returns comes into play with paid staff (hiring three people to work an office instead of two probably doesn't get you too many more votes) but you're right about paid ads. We'll see if a torrent of negative ads does Bernie in; I'm certainly hoping not.

[Adrahil]

12. If he can't raise enough to compete with HRC's numbers....

... how can he hope to stay in the game in the generals?

I know, I know.... there will be a huge upswell of grassroots support. But maybe not.

[Larkspur]

6. We don't vote for Prez by national vote

National Prez polls basically reflect name recognition and Hillary has the highest name recognition. That is what this polll shows me.

Polls done by swing state give a more accurate read of the Prez candidates viability.

At this stage, Bernie has raised his name recognition but has more work to do. He has so far shot down the meme that he can not win the general election against Repubs. Now he needs to work on improving his chances with winning the primary. He has time and the energy to do that. Hillary does not have much room to grow her support and she knows it, which is why her campaign is snidely attacking Bernie. She has nowhere to go but down and Bernie has room to grow.

[Adrahil]

7. Please post some statistics on that.

I have seen nothing to indicate that swing state performance in the primaries is predictive of the nominee, especially as compared to national polling.

[FloridaBlues]

9. Another good polling strong and steady for HRC

[ismnotwasm]

10. Very interesting

I thank you

[Qutzupalotl]

14. I doubt there will be much movement until the debates.