PPP: Warren and Brown tied in MA Senate Race

[WI_DEM]

Brown, Warren tied
PPP's newest poll on the Massachusetts Senate race finds it dead even, with Elizabeth Warren and Scott Brown both at 46%. Warren's now been at that exact same 46% mark in three PPP polls in a row dating back to last September. Brown's increased his support from levels of 41% and 44% on those previous two polls.

Brown's numbers have experienced a bit of a resurgence in the last few months. His approval rating is back over 50%, with 51% of voters approving of him to 38% who disapprove. He had been at 45/42 and 44/45 on PPP's last two polls. Brown's approval with independents who have an opinion about him is now better than 2:1 at 60/29. And he's reclaiming some of his crossover support from Democrats with 30% approving of him, up from 23% in March.

Brown is conveying the sort of centrist, independent image he'll need in order to win this fall. Only 34% of voters think he's too conservative to 48% who say he's ideologically 'about right.' And 49% say he's been an 'independent voice for Massachusetts' to 39% who say he's been more a 'partisan voice for the national Republican Party.'

Warren's popular too with 47% of voters rating her favorably to 38% with a negative opinion. Political races where voters like both candidates have been few and far between in recent election cycles. Warren was at 46/33 in March so her negatives have climbed a little bit since then, but it could be a lot worse given the press coverage she's received since that time.

Brown's running even in the heavily Democratic state for two main reasons. One is that strong standing with independents- he leads 57-33 with them, up from 48-36 three months ago. And he's also getting a good amount of crossover support, with 18% of Democrats voting for him compared to 9% of Republicans who are supporting Warren.
This race is ultimately going to be decided by Obama independents. The undecideds for Senate are planning to vote for Obama over Mitt Romney by a 60/13 margin. 62% of them are independents to 31% who are Democrats and just 7% who are Republicans. On paper it seems like Warren has a lot more room to grow. But those who haven't made up their minds yet like both candidates. Brown has a 43/19 approval rating with them and Warren's favorability is 40/15. Unlike in the Presidential race where swing voters are trying to decide who they think is the lesser of two evils, in this contest voters are trying to choose between two candidates who they see pretty favorably. There are already a lot of Obama/Brown voters and it's quite possible there will be more of them.

The Massachusetts Senate contest has been tight ever since Elizabeth Warren announced she was getting into the field, and there's not much reason to think that's going to change any time soon.


http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/06/brown-warren-tied.html

[Dawson Leery]

1. Considering Brownie was leading all potential challengers by 20 points last year,

this is a vast improvement. Also, Brownie's slanderous campaign against Warren's heritage is not working.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

2. Bring on the debate(s)!

That should tip the balance in Warren's favor- if Warren can actually get Brown to stop coming up with excuses to avoid a good debate.

[Rosanna Lopez]

3. Good, but needs to be better

It's good that Warren is tied with Brown in the polls, but that's not enough of a cushion to guarantee a victory in November. Warren was ahead by 5 points in a PPP poll earlier this year. The conventional wisdom appears to be that if Warren goes into election day tied with Brown, she should pull out a close race since a lot of voters will vote straight ticket and vote for Warren when they vote for Obama since MA will obviously pick Obama over Romney. However, Brown still has the greater name recognition as the incumbent, and that could give him an edge when people see his name on the ballot on Nov. 6.

If I were Warren's team I would want to get her higher in the polls so that she has a cushion of a few points ahead of Brown going into Nov 6. so it's not all left to a 50/50 chance on election day.

[aaaaaa5a]

4. Obama is running strong enough in MA....

that he should be able to carry Warren across the finish line. I actually think Brown will need a solid 3-5 point lead in the RCP average (outside the margin of error) to overcome Obama's dominance at the top of the ticket. Ticket splitting is not that popular anymore. Any poll showing Warren close, and we should be okay to turn the seat blue in the fall.

[Rosanna Lopez]

5. Gender issue?

I have a question that may seem unusual at first, but here it is: to what extent is gender an issue in MA politics? The reason I ask is that someone told me that MA has never elected a woman Governor or a woman Senator. Perhaps this is just an anomaly, but considering how many other states have elected women as Governor or to the U.S. Senate, it's surprising it hasn't happened in MA yet.

Is being a woman a disadvantage in MA politics? Did that hurt Martha Coakley? Is it a factor in the Warren race?

[Arkana]

6. It wasn't a factor in the Coakley race.

Her complete inability to realize Scott Brown posed a real threat was her Achilles heel. That, and the fact that she couldn't debate to save her life.

Other than that bullshit about the Cherokee heritage thing, Warren has largely avoided Coakley's mistakes so far. She hasn't put the people of the state at arm's length, which is excellent--it's how Scott Brown campaigned last time (as repugnant as I find the man, he ran a strong campaign.)