Bernie Sanders surges ahead of Hillary Clinton in N.H., 44-37

[kcjohn1]

http://www.bostonherald.com/news_opinion/us_politics/2015/08/bernie_sanders_surges_ahead_of_hillary_clinton_in_nh_44_37

I guess surge is not over yet!

[840high]

1. Makes my heart happy.

[HappyPlace]

2. Plateau!!11!

[pa28]

3. Racially charged spin incoming. Duck and get ready to take a long shower.

[CharlotteVale]

4. A new desperate meme is on its way.

[kath]

7. Ohhhhhh, yes, and it'll be a doozie!

Or several of the old ones will get recycled all at once.

Incoming!!!

[Qutzupalotl]

47. "At this rate, he'll be at 986% by 2027!"

[AgingAmerican]

5. He gains 2%-3% every week

And SEVEN months to go. Oh my!

[HooptieWagon]

6. Talking points haven't been distributed yet.

Wait for "polls don't matter" (unless they show Hillary ahead).

[virtualobserver]

10. I put $25 on "outlier"

[Ed Suspicious]

13. I would not bet against that.

[jeff47]

29. I got $25 on pretending national polls matter more.

Though "posting a poll from a late primary state" is a close second.

[Persondem]

60. You are probably correct and I agree

The polling outfit rates a C- from 538 so I won't buy this new "Bernie surge" until a few more polls confirm it.

[HooptieWagon]

76. You were the winner! Nt

[djean111]

56. I think SOCIALIST!!!!!!! is up next. n/t

[restorefreedom]

8. i really wonder what it will take

before people in media start admitting that this is going to be a competitive primary. I don't know what kind of numbers they're waiting for. Besides, if everyone thinks that their candidate is the best, then a competitive primary should not be frightening to anyone.

[virtualobserver]

9. Bernie has to win South Carolina

Even if he wins IA and NH , not enough -too white

[restorefreedom]

14. and nh is next to vt blah blah

but interestingly enough, back when i was still watching hardball before i couldn't take matthews' smarmy dismissal of bernie, i remember howard fineman saying that if bernie wins both iowa and nh hillary could have a very tough time coming back. he even suggested that it could be game over. i almost fainted, but those two wins with his momentum would be very good.

[virtualobserver]

17. I agree with that analysis -Hillary wasn't crying for America in NH in 2008

She knew it was game over if she lost......momentum is everything

[restorefreedom]

19. don't care for howard f. that much

but he tends to be spot on a lot of the time.

I actually have hope..

[John Poet]

74. So if Hillary LOSES South Carolina,

she should just get out of the race, right?

[appalachiablue]

84. JEB! = Just Elect Bernie!

[Spitfire of ATJ]

32. The Beltway is still chanting, "This is a center-right country"....

As such, pundits are all puzzled.

They look at Bernie's crowds and can't wrap their heads around the idea that there are enough Liberals out there to fill a meeting room in the back room of a Denny's much less a stadium.

[restorefreedom]

33. i think part of it

is that many of his supporters don't necessarily see it as liberalism. they see it as fairness. he is getting all kinds of support, even from republicans.

sooner or later, the 2x4 of reality will catch up to them..

[Spitfire of ATJ]

37. The Republican Base has YEARS of HATE stored up for the Clintons....

If she's not running but some old white guy talking about expanding Social Security is out there then even if they can't bring themselves to vote for a Democrat the urgency to vote against Hillary won't be burning in their "brain" so Republican turnout will suffer.

Especially if they run Jeb.

(Or is it, "Jeb!"?)

[restorefreedom]

40. good point

i looked on fr yesterday and they hate jebbie. some even said they would vote third party trump

it is an anti establishment election for sure

[Spitfire of ATJ]

45. A lot of it is a desire to put the 20th century behind us and start the 21st.

[restorefreedom]

51. in 2015

that would be nice...

[arcane1]

35. The numbers they are waiting for are dollars from Super-PACs buying ad time.

The media doesn't want this, but we don't need them. How many TV stations advertised these rallies?

[restorefreedom]

36. it really is amazing

social media is free, and that is what is working.

love the millenials and the others who are unplugged to teevee.

[artislife]

38. Xer...no tv

I get everything from the net or papers or Books...yeah!

[restorefreedom]

44. i think a lot of xers are tuning out too

seems that conventional tv is still popular among some older folks, but i bet even some of them are getting sick of it all.

[artislife]

48. I pet sit for a living

It supplements the income. Granted I live in the Puget Sound so we have a lot of tech people and tech friendly people. Most of my homes are not connected to cable. They have Amazon Prime, Netflix, Hulu, HBO go and apple tv. Even when there is cable, I rarely watch it.

These are Boomers, Xers and Millinials. The over 65 crowd still watches cable...so I get to see Outlander and Orphan Black. Yippee!

But so many have cut the cord.

[djean111]

57. And Hillary's 4 million twitter followers? According to TwitterAudit - half fake, just like Mitt's.

I don't think her campaign really knows how social media works. They don't know (or arrogantly don't care) that X-ers and Millennials cannot only see behind the curtain, they make it a point to look behind the curtain. And, yeah, they don't watch expensive TV ads.

[Le Taz Hot]

11. This is among likely Democratic voters . . .

which is exactly the ones used by HRH's most ardent supporters. Wall Street and Yellow Dog Democrats are her only supporters and it looks like some of the Yellow Dogs might be feelin' the Bern. And this is five months out. No wonder the Clinton campaign is starting to write off New Hampshire. They can still manipulate Iowa but Iowa is nothing but a horse race and media show and, I think too many people forget (or didn't know in the first place), the Iowa caucuses are non-binding.

[winter is coming]

15. +1. Iowa is visibility and bragging rights. n/t

[appalachiablue]

83. Chris Matthews might be worked up enough about NH to bring out the

SOSHIALIST drama again, avec spittle. Can't wait. I copped your S. word, hope that's ok.

[Le Taz Hot]

85. This is DU,

everybody borrows from everyone else. Never been an issue.

[Bubzer]

12. Awesome!

[Ed Suspicious]

16. I want to call him a political master, but a think an old shoe could run on his platform and win.

It's so what we need right now.

On edit, that's not true. Its not just about the platform, but the consistent record to back it up.

[virtualobserver]

20. Bernie also redefines coolness

[FlatBaroque]

79. Has anyone ever snapped him wearing dark sunglasses?

Obama has them, Hillary has one. Bernie needs a dark sunglasses picture. I would make that my avatar.

[appalachiablue]

86. You got that, one cool dude. Bernie's also a fighter which is good & a sweetheart.

In following him for several years these qualities are quite clear, not to mention beaucoup brains, compassion, integrity, endurance and stamina. The man also has far more patience than many, esp. in his field.

[Joe the Revelator]

24. If that was the case, O'Malley would be gaining more traction...

....though my super prediction is that there are going to be some states that finish Sanders, Omalley, Clinton and/or Omalley, Sanders Clinton. Assuming Joe doesn't get in.

[Ed Suspicious]

27. You might not have noticed my edit to add long-term consistency as a factor.

I agree with you.

[SoapBox]

18. But, but, but...he's already "peaked."

Go Bernie!

[Zorra]

21. Bwaahaahaa! WOW!

[tritsofme]

22. Outlier. 1 out of every 20 polls conducted will have results outside the margin of error

Even under ideal conditions.

Unless you start seeing any further polls confirming, this is the most likely explanation.

[virtualobserver]

26. ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding!

[kath]

30. 25 bucks to virtual observer!!!

Somebody pay the wo/man!!

[Zorra]

31. heehee! Well done!

[Juicy_Bellows]

42. Holy guacamole! Haha!

You seer of seers!

[hootinholler]

54. Winner winner Chicken Dinner!

[ibegurpard]

34. 5 more months till Iowa

That's a lot of time for more and more outliers...

[artislife]

41. You win a snickerdoodle!

Yummy. You can have it with milk, or cocoa or even a coke. It's yours!

[beam me up scottie]

72. I'll even put extra cinnamon sugar on top!

[tritsofme]

73. Sorry to interrupt your party with a dose of reality...

I know that is a controversial topic.

[Zorra]

75. No problem, we knew you were coming before you did.

We even made snickerdoodles.

There is real, unreal, and the third way, the corporate manufactured illusion of real.

You want real? We can help!

[kath]

88. Ha!

[tritsofme]

91. I see you've chosen the blue pill...

[Fairgo]

87. Actually

No, the SEM implies a 1 in 20 chance that the outcome is due something other than whatever it was your instrument was measuring. So, no, outlier is actually one if the less likely reasons for the outcome.

[tritsofme]

90. Care to speculate on a more likely reason?

That this poll produced results inconsistent with other publicly available information?

Polls are typically structured to have a 95% CI, 5% of the time it can be expected that the results will fall outside of the MoE.

[jalan48]

23. Great to hear. Hope builds.

[Godhumor]

25. Not a Bernie supporter, but good for him

Can't find anything in the methodology to dismiss the poll, so we will see if the next round of NH polling shows the same move.

[bobbobbins01]

28. Best news I've heard all week!

Thats a pretty big leap too...with plenty of time to keep spreading the word, man I'm excited. But I'm sure its going to be a pretty bumpy ride, the powers that be are going to fight tooth and nail.

[JI7]

39. i hope Sanders wins NH

[mmonk]

43. Uh oh.

[JI7]

49. Sanders needs to get to South Carolina

and i mean do house to house and small local events to start off.

[Fawke Em]

50. As much as I'd love this... it's the Herald.

But... maybe that right wing rag thinks they're helping...


Hmmmm

[Zorra]

53. "The socialist senator trailed Clinton by a 44-8 margin in a Franklin Pierce/Herald poll in March."

[Fawke Em]

58. I know...

Just can't stand the Herald.

[rocktivity]

52. I don't think it's asking too much that he do well in a state

he shares a border with. It's his Iowa numbers that he has to improve by February.


rocktivity

[brooklynite]

55. Good for him...

...should make for an interesting weekend when I go up there the weekend before...

[Robbins]

59. Wait for talking points

NH is right next to vermont and NH is mostly white.

I have always maintained if bernie wins Iowa and NH her lead collopses like house of cards.we saw something similar in 2008 after Obama won Iowa.

this race is tougher for clintons due to Bernie not being negative and he has consent record.

[Agschmid]

61. Kick.

But wow... there is some ugliness in this thread, and lots of gloating.

It's not pretty.

[Roy Ellefson]

62. huh?

where's the ugliness?

[Agschmid]

63. Throughout the thread.

It's not hard to miss.

[Puglover]

64. Howdy fellow Sanders supporter!

Always Johnny on the Spot with your support for Senator Sanders.

You're consistent if nothing else.

[Agschmid]

65. Well when you actually support someone and want to do it...

without tearing others down its realatively easy to be consistent, and still have people respect you.

It's one of those things where if you give respect, you get respect.

[Puglover]

66. LOL

okey dokey.

When you dig up any horrid posts I have made about Hillary Clinton please get back to me.

Have a nice day.

TIA.

[Agschmid]

67. Not going to dig.

I don't have to, in your first response to me just now I was not treated with respect. It's right there, and anyone who gets it will see it clear as day.

[Puglover]

68. Clear as day.

On that we fully agree.

[Agschmid]

69. Yah I except I'm supporting someone...

And all that happens is I get beat up by other supporters? You think that's a good thing?

Thank god DU isn't the real world, and thank god you guys aren't actually on the ground in NH.

[Puglover]

71. Yes thank God.

[WI_DEM]

70. I think it is increasingly likely that VP Biden will eventually enter the race...

What HRC had going for her was her 'inevitability' but if she shows vulnerability and loses some primaries and caucuses to Bernie--I think the VP and his people will take it as a sign of weakness and will get in the race. I think it is a possibility that nobody will have enough delegates when the convention meets and we might have an open convention where almost anything could happen.

[HooptieWagon]

78. You may be right.

Biden could be on standby for the 'establishment's' Plan B. Hillary's email scandal just took a turn for the worse, and Biden might be the DNC's backup. However, the longer they wait, the stronger Sanders gets. The Corporatists are probably getting pretty nervous. Good. I hope they become pants-shitting urine-misting frightened.

[KamaAina]

77. That depends on what the meaning of the word 'plateau' is.

[lame54]

80. that's with a media blackout

[George II]

81. Keep in mind this is one poll, it's rated C- (below average with respect to accuracy)

....and it's sponsored by a newpaper owned by a former executive of News Corp.

[sabrina 1]

82. I thought he had plateau'd!

Can you surge AND plateau at the same time?

[moondust]

89. Let the coronation begin!!!!