Rueters/Ipsos: Clinton-55% Sanders-18%

[Adrahil]

Here's the poll:

http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=14767

Biden in this one.

So, this continues the trend of national polls stabilizing with Clinton in the mid-50's and Sanders in the upper teens or low 20's. We'll need more polls in NH to see if the Bernie break-through there is real, or an outlier.

[Picking Dem]

1. Worthless information. National polls are useless for primaries

I'd rather see state polls.

[Adrahil]

3. whistling in the dark?

Of course they aren't useless. If Clinton has a lead of 30+ points, that is not "useless" by any means. It won't tell you what a specific state primary will do, but it does tell you the level of support nationally. Don;t ignore data just because you don't like it. But don't overstate it either. This is one piece of data.

[SonderWoman]

9. Its a Dem primary poll, meaning 'States'

[ibegurpard]

2. The NH poll was a state poll

This is a national poll
You are comparing apples to watermelons.

[Adrahil]

4. I'm not comparing this to the NH....

.... I'm saying that national polls show stability, but that we'll need more NH polls to see if that one poll was an outlier or not.

[moobu2]

5. Only polls showing Bernie up and Hillary down

are legitimate around here apparently.

[redstateblues]

6. Obviously an outlier funded by neoliberal corporatists

[Agschmid]

7. For real?

Yah I know...

"For real."

[frylock]

11. You might have a point if there were a national primary election

[Admiral Loinpresser]

8. The more accurate reflection is 43% to 16%.

On Page 9, the Dem plus independent sample is much closer. This reflects the national trend and the pure Dem numbers will continue to move in Bernie's favor. And if you add GOP voters, his numbers go up even further. He has cross over appeal which Hillary is lacking.

[Adrahil]

10. That's one analysis....

I don't usually pay attention to independent voter polls unless the independent expresses and inclination to vote in the Dem primary.

Those firms polling both HRC and Sanders in General Election match-ups typically show HRC with a slight advantage versus the Repugs, so I don't see your "crossover" advantage reflected there.

But even with your analysis, I'll still take a 27 point leads, thanks.

[Admiral Loinpresser]

12. Fits the trend of shrinking lead. n/t

[Adrahil]

13. How do you figure?

Nearly all the other polls include Dems or Dems and Dem leading independents. This poll is within the MOE from the last Ipsos/Reuters poll.

[Admiral Loinpresser]

14. About a month ago,

somebody claimed the national polls were all ranging consistently between 40-60% advantage for Hillary. Haven't heard that claim for several weeks. Haven't heard that claim in several weeks. Every time a new line is drawn, it is crossed. I don't know what his name recognition is now (last I saw was 44%), but as it grows his numbers grow. Similar to Dean and Obama phenomena in different ways.

[Adrahil]

15. I never made that claim.

And anyone who did wasn't paying attention. Sanders might still be closing the gap slowly, but there was clearly an inflection point a few weeks ago. Just look at the data.

[Admiral Loinpresser]

16. Any graphs?

The NH and IA graphs both show him with an upward trend, as does his name recognition.

[Adrahil]

18. Sure, check out the pollster graph...

Clearly an inflection point about the second week of July. If you look over the last month, Bernie closes by just a couple points, and Hillary loses a few. It's pretty stable. I wouldn't call it flat, but Bernie now needs to really dig into Clinton's support floor to break his own ceiling.

[Admiral Loinpresser]

19. What page, please.

Didn't find anything so far.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

17. Yes I agree

Unlike Hillary Bernie has appeal across the board. Independents, Greens, Republicans etc. People who have just registered after never voting in their lives!