Brand new Ipsos Reid poll-HRC-55% SBS-18%/ JB 11%/ M O 2%---DT 21% JB 12%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/ipsos-reuters-22559

[sufrommich]

1. Who is DT? nt

[Picking Dem]

2. The guy with the gerbil as his hairpiece

[sufrommich]

3. D'Oh! Of course,thanks. nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. The gentleman with the most interesting hair.

EOM

[PoliticAverse]

4. "Who is DT" - If you don't know, consider yourself lucky. n/t

[Adrahil]

5. National polls appear to have stabilized. nt

[brooklynite]

7. The more things change, the more they stay the same...

[brooklynite]

8. Look at the Republican results: Carson/Fiorina taking off; Walker tanking...

Donald Trump (R) 21%
Jeb Bush (R) 12%
Ben Carson (R) 8%
Marco Rubio (R) 8%
Mike Huckabee (R) 7%
Rand Paul (R) 6%
Carly Fiorina (R) 6%
Ted Cruz (R) 5%
Scott Walker (R) 5%
Chris Christie (R) 3%
Lindsey Graham (R) 2%
Rick Perry (R) 2%
Bobby Jindal (R) 2%
John Kasich (R) 1%
George Pataki (R) 1%
Rick Santorum (R) 1%
Wouldn't vote 10%

[Agschmid]

9. Wow at the "wouldn't vote"...

As in "in this poll" or "in the election"

[Adrahil]

14. They don't say. That number struck me too, though it's not inconsistent with turnout.

I would guess "in the election," since the normal response would "no repsonse, don't know."

[Agschmid]

15. Agree.

I'm more familiar with a "no responses" vote.

Thanks.

[DCBob]

10. I'm still betting on Jeb.

Trump will flame out.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. John Kasich (R) 1%

If that poll is correct Kasich might find himself excluded from the big boys and girls debate next time.

[taught_me_patience]

16. Kasich behind Jindal and Rick Perry

Is real good news. This guy would be a serious contender for the general if he were nominated.

[Stallion]

29. Its a HORSERACE: "Wouldn't Vote is Charging Quick on the Rail

[DCBob]

11. Looking good for Hillary.

[SidDithers]

13. DU rec...nt

Sid

[taught_me_patience]

17. Didn't Nate Silver recently suggest Bernie's surge had plateaued?

And he was promptly thrown under the bus by the Bernistas. Yeah... it looks like Bernie is flatlining at about 18-22%.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

21. Nate also makes a compelling case that the Vermont senator can win IA and NH and lose ...

Nate also makes a compelling case that the Vermont senator can win IA and NH and lose everywhere else:


http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/bernie-sanders-could-win-iowa-and-new-hampshire-then-lose-everywhere-else



And the NH poll that some folks are touting to the moon might be an outlier:

Sam Wang retweeted
Daily Kos Elections ‏@DKElections Aug 11
Franklin Pierce's poll was conducted by R. Kelly Myers, who used to run UNH, one of the worst pollsters in the world https://www.linkedin.com/in/rkellymyers

Sam Wang ‏@SamWangPhD Aug 11

God, you people are saps. First poll from this organization in six years, no track record, outlier data point. Geez.

Drew Linzer ‏@DrewLinzer Aug 12
It's possible @SenSanders could catch @HillaryClinton in NH, but a robust poll smoother shows he's not there yet.

Daily Kos Elections ‏@DKElections Aug 11
So, pollster who apparently hasn't polled any elections since 2008 releases buzz-y poll on 2016. Hmm.

Daily Kos Elections ‏@DKElections Aug 11
Just checked Nexis. Can't find any Franklin Pierce U. polls since 2008 *primaries*. They really didn't even poll the general?

Daily Kos Elections ‏@DKElections Aug 11
Franklin Pierce's polling arm falls under the Marlin Fitzwater Center: http://www.franklinpierce.edu/institutes/mfcc/about_mf.htm … He was press sec'y for Reagan & Bush

[totodeinhere]

18. That's a meaningless national poll.

What's more important is what is happening in early primary and caucus states. Bernie is much more competitive there.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

19. Please feel free to ignore...

Please feel free to ignore every other state and national poll because Bernie Sanders is leading in one isolated poll in homogeneous New Hampshire.

[totodeinhere]

27. I referred to early states in the plural, not just New Hampshire.

And it's all about momentum. If he does well in Iowa and New Hampshire that gives his campaign momentum going forward. Then there's Nevada where I am. We are already making significant efforts to get organized for Bernie at the precinct level going into the caucuses.

[BainsBane]

22. In NH

He's in single digits in S Carolina, which makes him less competitive there than in national polling.

[DCBob]

24. SC might be the end of Bernie.

He will lose by such a large margin I suspect he will give it up.

[totodeinhere]

26. I doubt it. He has probably already written off South Carolina and is looking past it

to other contests down the road,

[Adrahil]

25. Meh... my primary isn't until May....

I HATE our primary system. I never really get to influence it.

Except by polls. I've been polled a number of times. At least THEN my voice gets heard.

[DCBob]

30. It shows Bernie has little appeal outside a few states that fit his sweetspot.

Even if you just look at the early primary and caucus states Hillary is still looking very good. Only in NH does it appear to be close.

Here's how I see it playing out.

Iowa: Hillary wins by about 5-10 points.
NH: Bernie wins by a point or two... if everything goes perfectly for the Bern.
SC: Hillary wins in a blowout.
Nevada: Hillary wins by about 5-10 points

Super Tuesday: Hillary has a very big day and Bernie surrenders.

[totodeinhere]

31. I know this is anecdotal but I live in Nevada and I'm active at my local precinct level.

At least in my neighborhood Bernie has strong support and Clinton does not.

[DCBob]

32. There has not been much polling for Nevada so its not too clear but..

I suspect it will be similar to Iowa.

[totodeinhere]

35. The conventional wisdom is that Clinton has strong support in Clark County

and Bernie is leading everywhere else. I don't think it's any coincidence that Bernie has been to Las Vegas several times. He needs to cut into Clinton's lead there.

[Fawke Em]

34. I'm in Tennessee and the only Democratic bumper stickers

I've seen are for Bernie.

I've seen some Trump and Carson on the Republican side, but not one Hillary sticker.

[SonderWoman]

20. K&R!

[billhicks76]

23. Yawn

Just because Wall St and the Military want Hillary and Jeb doesn't mean we have to give it to them. Shame.

[Frances]

28. I want any Dem to win over any Repub

But I hope Sanders and his supporters are more empathetic with black voters in the future because without black voters turning out for the Dems in the general election, the Dems will lose

To be honest, when Sanders said that Obama lost touch with the grass roots, my first thought was that Sanders was losing touch with black voters. Obama is the first black president; he has accomplished more than most presidents against much greater odds than other presidents. After all, the Republicans decided from the very first that their goal was not to do what was best for the country, but to defeat Obama in a second term.

I think many of us Dems wondered why Sanders was attacking Obama and not the Repubs. It sounded as though he was disrespecting our black President to me.

Bottom line: If a Dem wants to win a general election, he/she should attack Repubs, not Dems.

[Fawke Em]

33. Yawn.

Another national poll when we don't vote that way.

[lunamagica]

36. K&R.

[moobu2]

37. People dont really know who Bernie Sanders is

because the media has basically given him a free ride without looking into his past. Once he gets some real coverage and people get to know him he'll be lucky to get 10%.