Joe Biden’s Schrödinger’s Cat Campaign. (A very interesting perspective by Nate Silver)

[still_one]

2016 ELECTION 10:23 AM AUG 3, 2015

Joe Biden’s Schrödinger’s Cat Campaign

By NATE SILVER

Pundits — bored with the prospect of a Hillary Clinton coronation — have conjectured for months that Joe Biden might run for president, but the vice president has remained on the sidelines. So you’d be right to indulge some skepticism toward the latest round of speculation about Biden running.

But let’s consider Biden’s position from our outsider’s view. Does it make sense for Biden to enter the race? Not so much for Biden himself, but does it make sense for the Democratic Party to have Biden run? That’s the relevant question from the “The Party Decides” paradigm, which would claim that Biden’s candidacy would be futile unless he can win the backing of a substantial constituency of influential Democrats.

The problem for Biden is that under this “The Party Decides” view, the Democratic Party has already decided in favor of Clinton. As measured by her level of endorsements, Clinton has more support at this stage of the primary campaign than any Democrat in the modern era.1

Rank-and-file Democratic voters love Clinton too. Her favorability ratings within her party range from 75 percent to 85 percent, depending on the poll, which are among the highest intraparty ratings ever for a non-incumbent candidate. (Most of the recent slippage in her ratings has come from independent voters instead of Democrats.)

Oh, and Clinton has already raised $68 million.

These indicators of party support don’t tell us very much about what sort of general election candidate Clinton might be.2 But you’d have to lose the forest in a field of cherry-picked trees to suggest that Clinton is in all that much trouble for the nomination. Betting markets put her chances at about 80 percent.

Furthermore, it’s not clear what advantage Biden would offer Democrats relative to Clinton. As The New Yorker’s Ryan Lizza put it on Sunday:


http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/joe-bidens-potential-2016-presidential-campaign/

[KoKo]

1. Good Read....

interesting snip further in the article which does explain the "half in/half out" strategy and the reporting Buzz of "will he or won't he.":

But here’s the dilemma: The longer Biden waits to officially enter the race, the more of a problem his late start would become. He couldn’t easily make up for lost fundraising opportunities, for example. And at some point — likely in mid-November — he’d begin to encounter logistical challenges, like having failed to meet the filing deadline in New Hampshire and other early states.

At the same time, Biden has little rationale to enter the race this late except as a break-glass-in-case-of-Clinton-emergency candidate. His formal entry into the race would imply that Clinton’s campaign was under serious threat. The party establishment, most of which is extremely supportive of Clinton, wouldn’t like the signal that sends out.

[still_one]

2. I thought so too. Whether he runs or not, what bothers me is how the MSM has been painting this

as though Biden would be a "supposed replacement for Hillary, because her campaign is falling apart, and he represents the best alternative."

That Bernie or O'Malley are not even mentioned when discussing this, tells me that whoever is behind this is either trying to fragment the Democrats, or just trying to stir crap up, hoping something will stick.

We will see in the course of time what happens, but if Biden doesn't run, I am sure the McCarthyesque news media that we have will hardly mention it.

[DanTex]

4. Or maybe they're just realistic about the chances of O'Malley and Sanders

winning.

[still_one]

6. So in their infinite wisdom they have decided even before the first debate, or primary that Sanders

or O'Malley are "realistically" written off?

However, in contrast they were telling us that Trump doesn't stand a chance, and he will go away after the first debate. That didn't happen either.

The media's prognostic abilities do not have a very good record. From the first reports that the SC ruled the ACA unConstitutional, Iraq's WMDs, and of course the "criminal investigation of Hillary", that WASN'T, at the very least I do not have much faith in their abilities as journalists.

[ericson00]

3. Biden is merely Obama's leverage

to support him on Iran, given that polls have the public ambivalent on it. If he were actually going to run, he'd have formed an exploratory committee by now.

A lot of Clinton supporters, usually the older white ones, out there are still bitter enough too that if Biden came in and took her nomination away, they might vote Trump.

[DanTex]

5. Umm, no. Clinton supporters are not going to vote for Trump.

And the Biden talk has nothing to do with Iran.

[restorefreedom]

7. yawn.

yes, nate you want to proceed with the coronation and you think bernie and om are wallpaper.

we get it

[still_one]

8. He isn't even talking about Bernie, he is talking about Biden entering the race? Where are you

getting that from?

[restorefreedom]

10. he, like the rest of the establishment,

is trying to paint this as default hillary unless someone like biden gets in the race.

typical dnc bullshit and arrogant imo

[still_one]

11. no that is not where Nate is coming from, and if you read my OP I said pretty much what

I said about the MSM.

You are also right it is part of the establishment, but Nate is NOT the establishment. You don't have to agree with his guesses, but that is what he does, he tries to predict outcomes, not just politics, but sports and other things also.

[restorefreedom]

15. just not a big nate fan

haven.t been for a while. but i agree with you on the biden stuff. its like they are planning for him to swoop in and save the day if clinton's campaign runs into any serious issues. as much as i am not a hillary fan, i don't like this. can't help but wonder if her gender is affecting them. even if the establishment hates sanders, there are four other people in the race. it smacks of left handed chivalry. they might as well put him on a white horse.

[Peacetrain]

9. Why does Schrodingers Cat make me think of The Big Bang Theory??

[ellisonz]

12. He's not running. n/t

[still_one]

13. I would be shocked if he did. However, I think Elizabeth Warren might

[restorefreedom]

16. i haven't been following her ...has there been talk?

i'm thinking is that as an uber progressive, she knows or should, that she would pull support from bernie and not just hillary. also, she is doing terrific work in the senate. hmmmm i really wanted her to run at the very beginning, but now not so much. i think each of the 5 has staked out their place pretty well. wonder if there has been any polling with her in the mix.

[still_one]

18. I was being sarcastic

[restorefreedom]

19. oh. missed it.

a little tired today.

never mind

[still_one]

20. I should have put in the sarcastic symbol

[delrem]

14. Nate seems to've been on the receiving end of a big payday, recently.

He's working overtime on "message".

Of course with the incredible amount of money being spent on campaigns nowadays, directly and indirectly through PACs and the owners of the MSM, I hardly blame anyone for succumbing to the temptation of cashing in. Esp. a famous pollster, someone at the center of the $$frenzy$$.

But he's coming out WAY too soon with his pushpolling articles.

[restorefreedom]

17. agreed. nt