"In Close Race, Obama’s Plan B Is Paying Off" Posted by John Cassidy at The New Yorker

[applegrove]

In Close Race, Obama’s Plan B Is Paying Off

Posted by John Cassidy at The New Yorker

http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/johncassidy/2012/07/obama-reelection-strategy.html

"SNIP.........................................

Both sides have said that the election is going to be close, and there is no reason to doubt it. For now, though, the momentum is running in favor of Obama, who is taking a few days off before embarking a bus tour of Ohio and Pennsylvania. His victory in the high court buoyed the spirits of everyone in Democratic Party, and it wasn’t the only good news that last week brought him. A number of opinion polls taken before the Supreme Court’s decision suggested that his campaign’s Plan B, which was adopted in wake of the economic slowdown earlier this year, is starting to bear fruit.


Plan A was to say that the hard slog of the past four years had been worth it, and that the economy was finally recovering. For an incumbent, this is a pretty standard message: things are getting better—stick with me. Over the winter, when job growth appeared to be perking up, it looked like a winning strategy, but then came the job figures for March, April, and May, which showed the growth in payrolls falling sharply. This Friday, the Labor Department will release the job report for June. Wall Street is expecting the payroll figure to come in at about a hundred thousand. Anything below seventy-five thousand would be another big blow to the White House; anything over a hundred and fifty thousand would be bad news for Romney, whose campaign has gone all in on the notion that the economy needs a new savior.

The Obama campaign’s Plan B is based on the assumption that the economy will continue to stutter along without slipping, once again, into an outright slump, which would probably insure a Romney victory. The basic idea is to try to neutralize the economic headwinds by changing the subject as often as possible, and by raising doubts about Romney’s record, both at Bain Capital and as the governor of Massachusetts. “We’ve got to make sure people fully appreciate Mitt Romney is not some safe alternative,” David Plouffe, one of Obama’s senior advisers, told the Times. Assuming the economy doesn’t get any worse, Obama’s strategists believe that they can eke out a narrow victory by mobilizing the same coalition that the campaign relied on in 2008—young people, minorities, women, and highly educated professionals—and by turning enough white working-class voters against Romney to deprive him of the surge in the Midwest that he needs in order to win.

A month ago, with the national and battleground state polls showing Romney cutting into Obama’s lead—and in some places surpassing him—Plan B seemed like wishful thinking. More recently, however, the polls have shifted in Obama’s favor. In the national head-to-head match, the Real Clear Politics average of recent polls shows him leading Romney, 47.6 per cent to 44.1 per cent. On June 18th, just two weeks ago, the difference between the two candidates was less than one percentage point. Now, an Obama lead of 3.5 percentage points shouldn’t be exaggerated: Romney is still within striking distance. But his post-primary surge seems to have come to an end, and recent local polling suggests that he is facing difficulties in some key battleground states.


Read more http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/johncassidy/2012/07/obama-reelection-strategy.html#ixzz1zhiGxoEr

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[AnotherMcIntosh]

1. The strategists want to mobilize the 2008-type voters? Then it's time to abandon the 2010 strategy?

How about going with what works? How about going with what most people want? It worked in 2008.

[Jackpine Radical]

3. I still have my Obama 2008 sticker on my bumper.

I keep it because what I really want is the Obama I thought I was getting in 2008.

[Malikshah]

2. I hope the New Yorker got a refund. Cassidy's by-the-numbers

summary of polls is dispiriting, not because of the numbers, but because the method speaks to what is wrong with "journalism" and politics these days.

To live and die by numbers is the ultimate in missing the forest for the trees (I know it sounds counter intuitive, but it isn't)

The polls are such red herrings. What is worse, the polls are cherry-picked red herrings.

To base and article on such specious information is pretty damn pathetic.

[Cosmocat]

5. The simple fact is - Romney got a post nomination consolidation bump

When Santorum packed it in, he got the consolation of the party behind him and the race went from BO vs whoever to BO vs Romney. This was always going to give Romney a "bump."

Things have normalized, and the race remains what it was all along. A solid incumbant vs a guy who looks the part but has no real appeal, and unless the economy backslides or there is a major security issue, people are very likely to stick with the personable and competent incumbent.

Romney will get a bump from his convention, and when whoever he picks as VP get the breathless Sarah Palin STAR treatment, but it will dissipate with the quick turnaround with the D convention, and while the "liberal media" will scream about the horse race BO will be back to about the same place in a few weeks.

[John Robinson]

4. Always support you

Good job!