Quinnipiac Release New Swing State Poll for Primaries & General (with Republicans oversampled)

[ericson00]

Last edited Thu Aug 20, 2015, 08:52 PM - Edit history (1)

I know someone was gonna post the new "swing state" poll Quinnipac has put out. But first, before you start spinning their results, lets look at what they did in the swing states:

1,093 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points. The survey includes 477 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points and 345 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 5.3 percentage points.

1,096 Ohio voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points. The survey includes 371 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 5.1 percentage points and 353 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 5.2 percentage points.

1,085 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points. The survey includes 443 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.7 percentage points and 462 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.6 percentage points.

Also, Sanders never does better in any of the states surveyed! Also, in OH and FL, Republicans are once again oversampled. Biden isn't even declared; of course his numbers are good; everyone knows candidates numbers go down if and when they declare.

QU is not a good poll anymore. Quinnipiac is a 3rd rate party school trying to get publicity bc it cannot move up USNWR! It's also joining forces with the media trying to get Biden in the race.

It also doesn't add given give yesterday's national polls from a SERIOUS poll like CNN/ORC, in which Clinton is landsliding all Republicans; the popular and electoral vote winners only deviate 4 out of 57 elections, 1 in the last 125 years, 2000 was decided nationally by a statistically insignificant margin (.6%), and the highest one ever election's margin was between the top 2 vote getters was 3%. Clinton's lead in all the national polls yesterday from CNN was WAY bigger than 3 percent.

Also, undeclared candidates who are sitting above the fray do well. In 1996, Clinton destroyed Bob Dole, but the exit poll from election 1996 also shows Powell would have theoretically landslided Clinton by 12 points. Easy, right, but he'd have needed to a. seek the nomination, and b. stay above the fray, which wasn't going to happen had he sought the nomination.

[bigdarryl]

1. Yikes!!! Sanders does horrible in match ups with most republican candidates except Trump

[ericson00]

2. and his name rec isn't even high yet

so much for his prospects, but the big problem is the spin around Biden: he's not declared and is above fray; of course he polls well now

[okasha]

11. In polls where Biden is removed

his support goes to Hillary. Sanders is still stalled out and will likely remain so.

[LondonReign2]

16. STALL WARNING!

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html

Oh, wait, you said which one was stalled again?

[WI_DEM]

3. This Q-Poll is useless since they oversampled Republicans by so much--especially in FL

I'm sure it was designed that way so that the media would have their newest talking points.

[ericson00]

4. EXACTLY. Quinnipiac even outside the poll is known as a business

they overcharge their students for everything, and for a subpar education nonetheless. They spent 100 million on a new arena (tho their hockey is good), 50 million on new dorms but the senior class still doesn't have housing, they have a ton of busses that get the kids to New Haven on the weekends, etc.

But these polls get them more applications and thus more fees, and more 60k/year trustfund babies. Also, many of the students there are Republican, which means their parents are also Republicans, and thus it pay$ well.

I just thought it should be pre-empted before the Clinton-haters get to it first.

[Calista241]

5. The question is

Are people going to show up in the same numbers for Hillary that they did for Obama?

I am unconvinced. Obama was a likable, persuasive person, and Hillary is neither of those things.

I think pollsters are trying to come to grips with forecasting a much lower turnout for Democrats and Dem candidates.

[ericson00]

7. that's all subjective, as is most of the criticism against Hillary

who is to decide what "likeable" or "persuasive" is? But what is not similarly subjective is that blacks will still vote and in large number for Dems, Hillary is still extremely pop in the Latino community and the GOP is gonna be much less, most likely, and white working class voters will see a stronger Dem performance. All this together renders Quinnipiac's demographics into crap once again.

[Calista241]

9. I think you're far overestimating Latino dedication to the Democrat cause

Especially if the nominee is Bush or Rubio. Those two will be on Univision and Telemundo every fucking day giving interviews in Spanish.

Hillary is only going to be able to send a surrogate out to do Spanish language content.

What damage Trump did to the Repubs will be long forgotten next year.

[ericson00]

10. just like Sarah Palin was supposed to get McCain the female vote

and still, Rubio's stance on abortion is WAYYYY out of the mainstream. Even if the GOP does pick away some on Latinos, Rubio's stance on abortion is out of the mainstream as Dukakis' stance on death penalty and crime was or McGovern was on defense; Americans by a HUGE amount support allowing abortion when the mother's life is at risk, or the pregnancy is a result of rape or incest (add "always legal" to "illegal except in cases&quot . Whatever votes Rubio could gain in Latinos would be lost with other demographics, whites included, who Hillary will beat Obama in. Same thing with Bush and his last name.

Also, its "Democratic" not "Democrat" when used as an adjective...

[okasha]

12. It takes more than being able to speak Spanish

to gain Hispanic support. Perhaps you don't realize that most Hispanic voters speak English?

[ericson00]

13. and views on abortion that aren't extreme like Rubio

his views on abortion would do to him what Dukakis' view on the death penalty did to him.

[Metric System]

6. This Peter A. Brown sounds like he has an agenda.

[ericson00]

8. well he isn't very smart for such a prominent figure

Brown...has a BS in radio television news and an MS in journalism from Syracuse University

Not exactly the kind of educational credentials I'd expect from such an elite poll.

[ericson00]

14. here's another interesting possibility why they oversample Republicans;

back a few years, their school was ranked one of the most apathetic schools out there politically. These notable polls help them stop political apathy via publicity.

[Motown_Johnny]

15. Quinnipac sucks, but that CNN/ORC poll

shows Clinton's lead in the primary being cut in half in about 3 weeks. From +37 to +18.

I still say we need to see a couple debates before we can see how the race is actually shaping up, but it does look like Hillary's name recognition support is starting to evaporate.