2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumWhy the Sanders Fail?
I am shocked Sanders is as poorly as he is in Iowa. I figured he would win there and New H, then get blown out of the water on Super Tuesday by African Americans and Latinos. But I dont think he will win either of those first states based on Clinton's overwhelming lead.
So what happened?
Metric System
(6,048 posts)leftofcool
(19,460 posts)aikoaiko
(34,172 posts)New Hampshire is leaning toward Bernie now.
And the trends lines in IA are looking promising. Its not easy turning a large ship that has momentum. February is a ways away.
beam me up scottie
(57,349 posts)Vinca
(50,278 posts)It's either Trump all the time or Hillary's dishonesty rating. Bernie, the candidate talking most about our biggest issues, has been "disappeared."
moobu2
(4,822 posts)I can't stand that nasal accent and monotone voice.
Fawke Em
(11,366 posts)Or you like it when she tries to talk Southern and sounds completely stupid?
Bluenorthwest
(45,319 posts)nt
JI7
(89,252 posts)Its new hampshire where he has been doing well
arely staircase
(12,482 posts)Maybe his appeal is more limited than I thought.
Armstead
(47,803 posts)That alone is a success, regardless of the ultimate outcome.
arely staircase
(12,482 posts)Sure
Armstead
(47,803 posts)and second of all, a big part of the goal is to get an important perspective into the mainstream campaigns, and demonstrate that there is a large movement of people who want to see actual change and reform in the system
Z_California
(650 posts)I witnessed an Iowa caucus (in Lisbon, IA) in 1984. The results of the caucus can be a lot different than the polls taken even the day before. I think the caucus format is an advantage for Bernie. If he gets to within 10% in the polls I think he'll win the caucus.
arely staircase
(12,482 posts)Juicy_Bellows
(2,427 posts)cali
(114,904 posts)him by 10 to one or so?
arely staircase
(12,482 posts)Now I don't think so. If he carries a state (other than VT) it will be NH. But once it moves to the South it is over for the Bern. Those primaries are often a majority AA and Hispanic - game , set match. Look forward to working with you in the fall.
ibegurpard
(16,685 posts)You do know the Iowa caucuses aren't until February right?
SheilaT
(23,156 posts)Have the Iowa caucuses been held and I missed them? Damn!
You DO realize it's still August, yes?
If not, read the following carefully:
Today is August 27, 2015. The Iowa caucus date is February 1, 2016. That's a bit over four months from now.
The New Hampshire primary is February 9, 2016, a week later.
A lot could change between now and then.
Keep in mind, that Bernie still has rather limited name recognition, because the mainstream media is barely noticing him. As more people find out about him, the happier they are, the more they move to voting for him.
Motown_Johnny
(22,308 posts)He is gaining in Iowa and ahead in NH. Plus, Iowa is a caucus and movement candidates like Bernie have an advantage in that type of contest.
Lets see where things are after a couple debates. It is way to soon to know how this race shapes up. Besides, Biden may still get in and that will shake things up a bit too.