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Fawke Em

(11,366 posts)
Sat Aug 29, 2015, 06:16 PM Aug 2015

New Poll: Sanders pulls within 7 percent of Clinton in Iowa

Liberal revolutionary Bernie Sanders, riding an updraft of insurgent passion in Iowa, has closed to within 7 points of Hillary Clinton in the Democratic presidential race.

She's the first choice of 37 percent of likely Democratic caucusgoers; he's the pick for 30 percent, according to a new Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll.


http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2015/08/29/iowa-poll-democrats-august/71387664/

#FeeltheBern

141 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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New Poll: Sanders pulls within 7 percent of Clinton in Iowa (Original Post) Fawke Em Aug 2015 OP
Ruh roh! Warren DeMontague Aug 2015 #1
It's a good thing that "the Sanders surge is over", John Poet Aug 2015 #33
Clintons Married To Bushes billhicks76 Aug 2015 #44
more like Bushes and Trumps PatrynXX Aug 2015 #136
"the Sanders surge is over" left-of-center2012 Aug 2015 #52
Message auto-removed Name removed Aug 2015 #93
I'm thinking that about two weeks ago SheilaT Aug 2015 #128
Saying he peaked left-of-center2012 Aug 2015 #130
They say as they are submerging Babel_17 Aug 2015 #133
Rated A+ by 538 jfern Aug 2015 #2
Even better news! Fawke Em Aug 2015 #4
1. the 538 ratings are outdated. 2. Even the best polls have outliers at times ericson00 Aug 2015 #97
The only problem is the 'outliers' showing Sanders surging and trending upwards, are becoming sabrina 1 Aug 2015 #122
How do you detect, with confidence, outliers in series following non-linear trajectories? HereSince1628 Aug 2015 #125
Given the trajectories, I'd say this poll isn't an outlier. Fawke Em Aug 2015 #134
well lets hope they're not doing what Quinnipiac is; ericson00 Aug 2015 #48
It's deja vu all over again artislife Aug 2015 #61
waiting for the litany of dismissals and excuses . . . tic, toc, tic, toc . . . zazen Aug 2015 #3
Things are starting to look sketchy for Ms. Inevitable IVoteDFL Aug 2015 #5
I don't sound crazy anymore Robbins Aug 2015 #9
How's chances voters reject both ->Hillary and Jeb! ????? Huddie94 Aug 2015 #118
hell yes AtomicKitten Aug 2015 #6
Great news! neverforget Aug 2015 #7
We're getting there. It's a comin'. senz Aug 2015 #8
Yes, getting there this is iirc the 7th state to have Clinton sink below 50% HereSince1628 Aug 2015 #22
I am so glad this guy came along. senz Aug 2015 #41
I wonder if anyone would have challenged....nt artislife Aug 2015 #62
Kicked and recommended. Uncle Joe Aug 2015 #10
Game changer! ram2008 Aug 2015 #11
"This feels like 2008 all over again," Motown_Johnny Aug 2015 #12
WOW AtomicKitten Aug 2015 #14
Yep, she was leading Obama by 7 in October. Motown_Johnny Aug 2015 #17
Edwards also beat Hillary in Iowa, bvar22 Aug 2015 #18
Edwards talked too much about poor people. Can't have that n/t arcane1 Aug 2015 #59
Edwards worked Iowa for almost 3 years. HereSince1628 Aug 2015 #67
It Biden enters the race we might see the same thing ram2008 Aug 2015 #27
OH, hell! Le Taz Hot Aug 2015 #13
It's so exciting, I don't blame you! Fawke Em Aug 2015 #20
Wait, I was told here by "experts" (err... partisans) nadinbrzezinski Aug 2015 #15
So are they, and they aren't enjoying it Hydra Aug 2015 #80
And this after Clinton has been running advertising! HereSince1628 Aug 2015 #16
96% of the People like Sanders for his ideas. HerbChestnut Aug 2015 #19
I certainly think he has a real chance cali Aug 2015 #21
I'm very glad to see this, because he's GOT to win Iowa, John Poet Aug 2015 #36
Pro Bernie, indeed. nt artislife Aug 2015 #64
As an O'Malley supporter, I am incredibly bummed that he can't get any traction. askew Aug 2015 #23
What was the ad about? eom Fawke Em Aug 2015 #24
Her mom and how she'll fight for working families. askew Aug 2015 #39
I wondered if it was that one. Fawke Em Aug 2015 #43
that's understandable cali Aug 2015 #30
O'Malley is helping the battle for better ideas Hydra Aug 2015 #81
Hell, he could be the VP if Sanders wins. draa Aug 2015 #100
Bernie vadermike Aug 2015 #25
Bernie is already proving... HerbChestnut Aug 2015 #31
Bernie does not need money RoccoR5955 Aug 2015 #65
Maybe from ex-Hillary supporters artislife Aug 2015 #66
Every Hillary supporter, New to me. juajen Aug 2015 #91
Good point! What about the sacred principle of one dollar, one vote? RufusTFirefly Aug 2015 #74
Thankfully the GOP is getting no traction with all of their money Hydra Aug 2015 #84
What needs to happen in NH and IA is happening. aikoaiko Aug 2015 #26
without biden it is K lib Aug 2015 #28
People do not like her. SoapBox Aug 2015 #29
bernie vadermike Aug 2015 #34
I wouldn't worry about the PNW artislife Aug 2015 #68
When this thing gets moving beyond the politicos Puzzledtraveller Aug 2015 #70
If Biden doesn't run Robbins Aug 2015 #32
Excellent news! ibegurpard Aug 2015 #35
Woo-hooo! The end of the dinosaurs! Old Crow Aug 2015 #37
The end of neoconservatives, neoliberals and other neo-anderthals Jack Rabbit Aug 2015 #47
This picture makes me smile. Fawke Em Aug 2015 #49
I'm glad! Old Crow Aug 2015 #55
LOL!! Fawke Em Aug 2015 #73
LOL right back 'atcha! :) (N/T) Old Crow Aug 2015 #75
Love it! peacebird Aug 2015 #89
Nice! Missing a couple more though... cascadiance Aug 2015 #113
LOL! Yes, there are lots more dinosaurs one could add to that image. :) (N/T) Old Crow Aug 2015 #114
Go Bernie! Jack Rabbit Aug 2015 #38
I see your Lennon & raise u 1 aidbo Aug 2015 #72
The quintessential John Lennon, right there. Le Taz Hot Aug 2015 #76
Thank you for posting that!! DiehardLiberal Aug 2015 #112
Steve Earle chimes in that the "Revolution Starts NOW!" cascadiance Aug 2015 #115
It's happening nationally as well hootinholler Aug 2015 #40
First time IA caucusgoers split favoring Sanders. That's a biggie early on. Huddie94 Aug 2015 #119
I really hope the Clinton camp can resist the urge to go cali Aug 2015 #42
Too late, imo. That's why the Ragin Cajun was back on the circuit last week HereSince1628 Aug 2015 #45
Wrong... nadinbrzezinski Aug 2015 #46
Maybe. I could need an old man, a pick-up truck and dogs HereSince1628 Aug 2015 #51
I can see a Bernie ad in there somewhere LiberalLovinLug Aug 2015 #94
Bernie Sanders Could Win Iowa And New Hampshire. Then Lose Everywhere Else ericson00 Aug 2015 #50
That was early July, now the Hill's mudslide is happening in 7 states HereSince1628 Aug 2015 #53
If it helps you sleep better... HerbChestnut Aug 2015 #54
sure but the reality is that it looks terrible cali Aug 2015 #57
Breaking below 50% was a huge psychological barrier...below 40%? HereSince1628 Aug 2015 #63
Don't let reality get u guys down, tho. frylock Aug 2015 #69
America will not elect an old greying self-avowed socialist ericson00 Aug 2015 #83
And what happens if we get a Socialist into the WH? Hydra Aug 2015 #85
wow. you really, really don't like the democratic process. cali Aug 2015 #86
The DNC must also consider how that would tear the party apart HereSince1628 Aug 2015 #87
If it has to come to a smokefilled room, you'll see the lowest turnout in history.. frylock Aug 2015 #88
Two points nadinbrzezinski Aug 2015 #92
socialists in America were/are not oppressed like blacks in America ericson00 Aug 2015 #96
You should read some history nadinbrzezinski Aug 2015 #98
that's not quite slavery or Jim Crow ericson00 Aug 2015 #99
No it is not slavery nadinbrzezinski Aug 2015 #103
To be already invoking such an anti-democratic solution to the "Bernie Problem" Joe the Revelator Aug 2015 #101
Bernie is only 6 years older than Hillary who is also graying Rosa Luxemburg Aug 2015 #109
this ain't 2008 ericson00 Aug 2015 #110
Endorsements Rosa Luxemburg Aug 2015 #111
She is going to lose MoveIt Aug 2015 #131
Do voters choose a candidate based on endorsements? cyberswede Aug 2015 #132
No the endorsement people shifted to Barack in 2008 Rosa Luxemburg Aug 2015 #141
Hillary's good. Bernie is the shit, tho. grahamhgreen Aug 2015 #138
I read that Bernie is only 3 years older than Hillary, not 6 years. EOM. Utopian Leftist Aug 2015 #140
You sound desperate! The poll numbers are making hillary fans nervous! nt Logical Aug 2015 #123
Amazing the things that can happen when you give people AN ACTUAL CHOICE!!!!!!! Indepatriot Aug 2015 #56
Iowa caucuses are in February 2016. I'm feeling it. nt thereismore Aug 2015 #58
Yayyyyyyy Go Bernie Go! eom Duval Aug 2015 #60
HUGE K & R !!! - Thank You !!! WillyT Aug 2015 #71
With a 4.9% MoE; greiner3 Aug 2015 #77
As reported from the Bloomberg side kenn3d Aug 2015 #78
Good news. JDPriestly Aug 2015 #79
Happy to be rec #77. MerryBlooms Aug 2015 #82
I Will No Longer Settle For The Lesser Of Two Corporate Evils - Go Bernie Go cantbeserious Aug 2015 #90
Bernie is kicking ass! Enthusiast Aug 2015 #95
As a non-Sanders supporter, and a person who honestly thought he had a snowball's chance.... Joe the Revelator Aug 2015 #102
As a political reporter nadinbrzezinski Aug 2015 #104
k&r k&r k&r avaistheone1 Aug 2015 #105
People know that the system is not working... SoLeftIAmRight Aug 2015 #106
I'm trying not to get too geeked up by some early polls but GODAMN IT"S LOOKING GOOD!!!!! Indepatriot Aug 2015 #107
Well, there's a small consolation for everyone. delrem Aug 2015 #108
here we go! marym625 Aug 2015 #116
Hillary supporters are starting to sweat Unknown Beatle Aug 2015 #117
Dismissive, condescending, borderline nasty... what's not to like? Huddie94 Aug 2015 #120
Hillary talks the talk Unknown Beatle Aug 2015 #137
but but but HRC has 1/5 of the delegates committed to her -- Bernie is sunk! NOT /nt NCjack Aug 2015 #121
WOW! xynthee Aug 2015 #124
The revolution is gaining momentum 4dsc Aug 2015 #126
Really good CNN interview with him here: CrispyQ Aug 2015 #127
Meanwhile, the Hillary group SheilaT Aug 2015 #129
How many of the 37% pick Bernie as their second choice? Spitfire of ATJ Aug 2015 #135
We need you Hill folks! May the best candidate win:) grahamhgreen Aug 2015 #139
 

billhicks76

(5,082 posts)
44. Clintons Married To Bushes
Sat Aug 29, 2015, 07:18 PM
Aug 2015

What's happens to our country (or what doesn't happen really) if Clinton gets the nod will be on all of you who voted for her. Must be nice believing all the lies just to feel better.

PatrynXX

(5,668 posts)
136. more like Bushes and Trumps
Sun Aug 30, 2015, 01:53 PM
Aug 2015

connected at the hip with Donald if she gets the nod it'll be like Donald getting the nod on the right. you get what you get and we are f*cked.

left-of-center2012

(34,195 posts)
52. "the Sanders surge is over"
Sat Aug 29, 2015, 07:41 PM
Aug 2015

The supporters of some other Democratic candidate posted the other day that Sanders had "peaked".

Response to left-of-center2012 (Reply #52)

 

SheilaT

(23,156 posts)
128. I'm thinking that about two weeks ago
Sun Aug 30, 2015, 11:25 AM
Aug 2015

a lot of people here started posting that Sanders had peaked. It's not worth tracking down the very first post that said that, of course, but ever since he peaked he's continued to climb. How bizarre is that? Obviously the vast herd of potential voters out there don't bother to pay much attention to what's said on DU.

Babel_17

(5,400 posts)
133. They say as they are submerging
Sun Aug 30, 2015, 12:36 PM
Aug 2015

The people who respond to polls aren't property, and they're looking less and less fungible into voters who will show up for you. Imo, it's being proven to have been a mistake to tout so heavily the circular logic of "inevitability". Now ever day instead of it being just a matter of the underdog gaining ground, it's about a contrived edifice crumbling publicly, and loudly. And going by that prior circular logic, that inarguably means something very important. Though when using a more reality based logic, it actually is indicative of sands shifting in an important way.

Hmm, "The sands are shifting for Sanders"? lol

 

ericson00

(2,707 posts)
97. 1. the 538 ratings are outdated. 2. Even the best polls have outliers at times
Sun Aug 30, 2015, 12:30 AM
Aug 2015

and when it is an outlier, lets see how you guys like it.

sabrina 1

(62,325 posts)
122. The only problem is the 'outliers' showing Sanders surging and trending upwards, are becoming
Sun Aug 30, 2015, 09:40 AM
Aug 2015

more and more common. In WV eg, Bernie is surging ahead of Hillary, in NH, same thing, now in Iowa and he has done all this in just a few months starting with practically no name recognition.

When do 'outliers' become the norm? I'm guessing in about another two months.

HereSince1628

(36,063 posts)
125. How do you detect, with confidence, outliers in series following non-linear trajectories?
Sun Aug 30, 2015, 09:54 AM
Aug 2015

As things go negative rapidly, an outlier that has values near the past running avg doesn't look like an outlier.
It works the same way in the other direction.

THere's no reason to believe a priori that Clinton's recent 52% in Iowa wasn't the sort of outlier described above. Just days ago the narrative was how Iowans were remaining loyal to Clinton based on that number.

The only way to see the outliers is fitting the curve and looking at residuals, but the curve fitting itself is problematic at the moving end of a noisy non-linear trajectory where we most earnestly want the truth








Fawke Em

(11,366 posts)
134. Given the trajectories, I'd say this poll isn't an outlier.
Sun Aug 30, 2015, 12:52 PM
Aug 2015

If they weren't following these lines, I might agree. Outliers are those little bumps up and down - not a clear pattern:


 

ericson00

(2,707 posts)
48. well lets hope they're not doing what Quinnipiac is;
Sat Aug 29, 2015, 07:36 PM
Aug 2015

abusing their old rating to get publicity.

Robbins

(5,066 posts)
9. I don't sound crazy anymore
Sat Aug 29, 2015, 06:33 PM
Aug 2015

thinking bernie could win iowa and NH and ms inevitiable could collapse like a house of cards.

 

Huddie94

(25 posts)
118. How's chances voters reject both ->Hillary and Jeb! ?????
Sun Aug 30, 2015, 07:20 AM
Aug 2015

That the two campaigns are linked in voters' minds?

The big change recently in Iowa is that the superPAC supporting Jeb! started running television ads. It's all "personality" stuff pushing a youthful image. And voters don't buy a line of it.

That fits with what you've been saying about the ->Hillary campaign. Her core supporters like her a lot but many Democratic voters react negatively when they see her on the campaign trail. When she went out in that orange pantsuit, it could have been 1994 again. Nobody dresses like that in 2015.

People do not want repeats of the 90s or the 00s. That was failing to get health care reform and the dot.com crashes and then both 9/11 and Iraq. Seems like rejecting Jeb! ties in with rejecting Hillary Clinton. Not sure at all why that works.

HereSince1628

(36,063 posts)
22. Yes, getting there this is iirc the 7th state to have Clinton sink below 50%
Sat Aug 29, 2015, 06:48 PM
Aug 2015

Even with Biden out of the race this is like a floor collapsed.

With Biden in she sinks below 40%...

7 points is approaching margin of error territory.

 

Motown_Johnny

(22,308 posts)
12. "This feels like 2008 all over again,"
Sat Aug 29, 2015, 06:35 PM
Aug 2015

^snip^

"This feels like 2008 all over again," said J. Ann Selzer, pollster for the Iowa Poll.

In that race, Clinton led John Edwards by 6 percentage points and Barack Obama by 7 points in an early October Iowa Poll. But Obama, buoyed by younger voters and first-time caucusgoers, surged ahead by late November.

In this cycle, Sanders is attracting more first-time caucusgoers than Clinton. He claims 43 percent of their vote compared to 31 percent for Clinton. He also leads by 23 percentage points with the under-45 crowd and by 21 points among independent voters.



 

Motown_Johnny

(22,308 posts)
17. Yep, she was leading Obama by 7 in October.
Sat Aug 29, 2015, 06:41 PM
Aug 2015

This is (obviously) still August.

I'm still seeing a trend where Bernie will pull even with her, maybe even be slightly ahead of her, by the first debate.




bvar22

(39,909 posts)
18. Edwards also beat Hillary in Iowa,
Sat Aug 29, 2015, 06:42 PM
Aug 2015

but that doesn't get much mention,
and got NO mention in the Media (MSNBC) that night. Neither Rachel nor Olberman mentioned Edwards by name.
That was weird. How can a news organization cover 1st and 3rd Place,
and not even mention 2nd?

I guess "the word" was already handed down from management about Edwards.

HereSince1628

(36,063 posts)
67. Edwards worked Iowa for almost 3 years.
Sat Aug 29, 2015, 08:10 PM
Aug 2015

That was a disappointment after a tremendous investment of time and resources.

It's possible the word was in from management...about his relationships with you know who. The Enquirer had printed accusations in late 2007 so it's possible that was a factor with someone who controlled production of the coverage.

ram2008

(1,238 posts)
27. It Biden enters the race we might see the same thing
Sat Aug 29, 2015, 06:53 PM
Aug 2015

Bernie taking the caucus by a solid margin, Biden in second with Clinton in third.

History seems to be repeating itself.

Le Taz Hot

(22,271 posts)
13. OH, hell!
Sat Aug 29, 2015, 06:36 PM
Aug 2015

I REALLY need to read the board BEFORE posting. I just posted the same thing. K & R and I'll delete the other one

 

nadinbrzezinski

(154,021 posts)
15. Wait, I was told here by "experts" (err... partisans)
Sat Aug 29, 2015, 06:40 PM
Aug 2015

that this was not going to happen, like ever. I am getting a bad case of 2008 flashbacks.

Hydra

(14,459 posts)
80. So are they, and they aren't enjoying it
Sat Aug 29, 2015, 08:47 PM
Aug 2015

As a friend of mine used to say "I disbelieve..I disbelieve...Dammit, they're still here!"

HereSince1628

(36,063 posts)
16. And this after Clinton has been running advertising!
Sat Aug 29, 2015, 06:41 PM
Aug 2015

Not sure those promisory notes from superdelegates at the DNC summer coffee latch for Clinton are going to mean much.

 

HerbChestnut

(3,649 posts)
19. 96% of the People like Sanders for his ideas.
Sat Aug 29, 2015, 06:43 PM
Aug 2015

This is not an Anti-Hillary vote. This is absolutely a Pro-Bernie vote, and 19% of Iowans *still* don't know enough about him to make a decision. He's going to win Iowa.

 

John Poet

(2,510 posts)
36. I'm very glad to see this, because he's GOT to win Iowa,
Sat Aug 29, 2015, 07:00 PM
Aug 2015

in my opinion.... Bernie really needs to take Iowa AND New Hampshire to have any chance at all.

If he does, I think all the "conventional wisdom" will have to be recalculated, and all the "shallow support" being reported for Hillary in national polling will begin a major shift.

askew

(1,464 posts)
23. As an O'Malley supporter, I am incredibly bummed that he can't get any traction.
Sat Aug 29, 2015, 06:49 PM
Aug 2015

The lack of debates is killing his name recognition. He isn't going to be able to go from 3% (8% without Biden) to a decent showing with 1 debate in November. Not sure how he continues to fundraise with those poll numbers either.

However, the good news is that Hillary's lead is shrinking. She is going to be a dead weight on the Dem Party if she wins the nomination with her horrible favorables/trustworthy #s. So, I am hoping Sanders can pull off an upset and knock her out early.

When I was in Iowa for 1 weekend , I saw Hillary's ad easily 50 times. It was one 3x in one commercial break during the Vikings game. Her campaign has to be seeing some bad #s in Iowa to be airing that many ads. Considering how lame her ad was, I am not surprised it isn't helping her.

askew

(1,464 posts)
39. Her mom and how she'll fight for working families.
Sat Aug 29, 2015, 07:07 PM
Aug 2015

Completely vapid. Lots of close-ups in Oprah lighting of Hillary looking like she is trying to feel our pain and images of her mom. Silly ad. Every time it came on all the Iowans in the room (D and R) would roll their eyes and say there was no way they'd vote for her.

Fawke Em

(11,366 posts)
43. I wondered if it was that one.
Sat Aug 29, 2015, 07:16 PM
Aug 2015

Saw a great rant on that somewhere...


Wish I could find it again. If I do, I'll post it.

Hydra

(14,459 posts)
81. O'Malley is helping the battle for better ideas
Sat Aug 29, 2015, 08:51 PM
Aug 2015

And while he may not get the nomination, the more he is out there promoting the idea that we as a party should stand for things and not be DLCist the better things will be for everyone. He could come out of this as someone known and trusted for later consideration.

draa

(975 posts)
100. Hell, he could be the VP if Sanders wins.
Sun Aug 30, 2015, 12:56 AM
Aug 2015

I could get behind that idea because I like O'Malley almost as much as Sanders. Bernie could certainly do worse.

vadermike

(1,415 posts)
25. Bernie
Sat Aug 29, 2015, 06:52 PM
Aug 2015

He may be our nominee. Would be great but how will we compete with billion dollar GOP campaign. Where would our money come from ?

 

HerbChestnut

(3,649 posts)
31. Bernie is already proving...
Sat Aug 29, 2015, 06:55 PM
Aug 2015

That you don't need the most money to win an election. He has been outspent continuously his entire political life, but look where he is now. Trust in the people.

 

RoccoR5955

(12,471 posts)
65. Bernie does not need money
Sat Aug 29, 2015, 08:06 PM
Aug 2015

Money does not vote, people do, and Bernie has many more people than the GOP can hope for!

 

artislife

(9,497 posts)
66. Maybe from ex-Hillary supporters
Sat Aug 29, 2015, 08:09 PM
Aug 2015

because the will support him in the general according to every H supporter here.


And Bernie, O'Malley and the rest of the people who have had enough of the billionaires buying the elections.

Hydra

(14,459 posts)
84. Thankfully the GOP is getting no traction with all of their money
Sat Aug 29, 2015, 08:54 PM
Aug 2015

I would say the DLC and GOP top brass are dumbfounded that their money advantage is getting them pretty much nowhere.

The problem is that most Americans don't see a bright future for themselves in the status quo. There's no way they can make that looks shiny again.

SoapBox

(18,791 posts)
29. People do not like her.
Sat Aug 29, 2015, 06:54 PM
Aug 2015

And as the campaigns get rolling even more, old as well as new dislike will grow for her...people are tired of her.

But what they needed was a common sense, honest and authentic candidate...we now have him, finally...Bernie Sanders.

Every minute of every single day, hundreds, thousands of Americans hear Bernie's mainstream, non-Bankster, non-billionaire message...and jump onboard his campaign.

Go Bernie! Go Team Bernie!

vadermike

(1,415 posts)
34. bernie
Sat Aug 29, 2015, 06:58 PM
Aug 2015

He is also starting to be competitive with The Clown Car now too.. beating all buttheads in NH ... i wonder how he would fare against the clown car in NV, CO, IA, WI etc and OR WA, OH, PA..... ETC..

 

artislife

(9,497 posts)
68. I wouldn't worry about the PNW
Sat Aug 29, 2015, 08:11 PM
Aug 2015

they had 15,000 and 28,000 show up for him already. They (we) are pretty progressive.


Cascadia rocks!

Puzzledtraveller

(5,937 posts)
70. When this thing gets moving beyond the politicos
Sat Aug 29, 2015, 08:13 PM
Aug 2015

and junkies (us) and the average joes and janes get to chime in, HC is toast.

Robbins

(5,066 posts)
32. If Biden doesn't run
Sat Aug 29, 2015, 06:56 PM
Aug 2015

all his support doesn't go to her.

Hillary would rise to 43% without Biden but Bernie would rise to 35% showing some who support Biden would support Bernie.

O'Malley would rise from 3% to 5% without Biden.

Old Crow

(2,212 posts)
37. Woo-hooo! The end of the dinosaurs!
Sat Aug 29, 2015, 07:01 PM
Aug 2015


Original artwork: "The End of the Dinosaurs" by Mark Stevenson (aka MasPix).

Old Crow

(2,212 posts)
55. I'm glad!
Sat Aug 29, 2015, 07:49 PM
Aug 2015

It still makes me smile, too--especially when I imagine the T-Rex bellowing "Nooooooo!" and flailing its little arms back and forth.

 

cascadiance

(19,537 posts)
115. Steve Earle chimes in that the "Revolution Starts NOW!"
Sun Aug 30, 2015, 02:12 AM
Aug 2015


And Midnight Oil feels that the Beds are BERNING!!!



Banksters are going to be made to say this too when he gets elected!

...
The time has come
To say fair's fair
To pay the rent
To pay our share

The time has come
A fact's a fact
It belongs to them
Let's give it back

How can we dance when our earth is turning
How do we sleep while our beds are burning
...

hootinholler

(26,449 posts)
40. It's happening nationally as well
Sat Aug 29, 2015, 07:08 PM
Aug 2015

The Quinnepac poll has Hillary's lead at 23 points now. That's a 15 point drop from their last poll.

 

Huddie94

(25 posts)
119. First time IA caucusgoers split favoring Sanders. That's a biggie early on.
Sun Aug 30, 2015, 07:46 AM
Aug 2015
"Sanders is attracting more first-time caucusgoers than Clinton. He claims 43 percent of their vote compared to 31 percent for Clinton. He also leads by 23 percentage points with the under-45 crowd and by 21 points among independent voters."


That's from the Des Moines Register piece.

What happened with Obama and Edwards was that their first timers went to the caucuses and stuck it out all evening to vote. Bigger impact than the poll numbers predicted. Enthusiasm matters.

If anything, this cycle's Sanders supporters are hyper-enthusiastic. Look for a big turnout in February if things keep going like what we see today.

 

cali

(114,904 posts)
42. I really hope the Clinton camp can resist the urge to go
Sat Aug 29, 2015, 07:09 PM
Aug 2015

negative. I don't mean minor sniping, but tv and internet ads and a non-stop cavalcade of heavy hitter surrogates. Even if they're sure they can stop him on super Tuesday, they don't want her in a fight with someone who is considered a low stature fringe candidate.

HereSince1628

(36,063 posts)
45. Too late, imo. That's why the Ragin Cajun was back on the circuit last week
Sat Aug 29, 2015, 07:19 PM
Aug 2015

It's going to be as angry as 2007-08.

LiberalLovinLug

(14,174 posts)
94. I can see a Bernie ad in there somewhere
Sat Aug 29, 2015, 11:23 PM
Aug 2015

with some country music in the background.
and maybe Sam Elliott narrating?

I think I'm kidding

HereSince1628

(36,063 posts)
53. That was early July, now the Hill's mudslide is happening in 7 states
Sat Aug 29, 2015, 07:45 PM
Aug 2015

It's looking more and more unlikely that Sanders will only get 2 states.

Of course, the Yellowstone super volcano -could- explode making it all ash covered mootness.

 

cali

(114,904 posts)
57. sure but the reality is that it looks terrible
Sat Aug 29, 2015, 07:53 PM
Aug 2015

for her to be competing with a low stature "fringe" candidate.

HereSince1628

(36,063 posts)
63. Breaking below 50% was a huge psychological barrier...below 40%?
Sat Aug 29, 2015, 08:02 PM
Aug 2015

via a 2 digit fall in 10 days or so? That must be terrifyingly reminiscent to supporters of the experienced re-runner

 

ericson00

(2,707 posts)
83. America will not elect an old greying self-avowed socialist
Sat Aug 29, 2015, 08:54 PM
Aug 2015

and if it has to come to a smokefilled room, so be it. The superdelegates will also not allow a socialist to get the nomination, hence why Hillary has way more endorsements than at this point in 2008.

Hydra

(14,459 posts)
85. And what happens if we get a Socialist into the WH?
Sat Aug 29, 2015, 08:59 PM
Aug 2015

Mind you, Bernie is a mild one, but what happens when the unthinkable occurs, and the red scare goes away?

What happens when an actual socialist movement gains steam and rolls back the Reagan Revolution/Overthrow of our democracy?

Scary stuff to consider...

HereSince1628

(36,063 posts)
87. The DNC must also consider how that would tear the party apart
Sat Aug 29, 2015, 09:07 PM
Aug 2015

The progressive side has been fed up with the conservative side of the party for a decade. That was so obvious the DLC had to rebrand.

The superdelegates over-turning the base would be traumatic and destructive in the states that form "the blue wall" just at a time when demographics really start to favor democrats across the country.

But, grabbing defeat from the jaws of victory isn't unheard of for the DNC

frylock

(34,825 posts)
88. If it has to come to a smokefilled room, you'll see the lowest turnout in history..
Sat Aug 29, 2015, 09:07 PM
Aug 2015

if the party machine decides to select Clinton, you show an entire generation of new voters that the system is rigged.

 

nadinbrzezinski

(154,021 posts)
92. Two points
Sat Aug 29, 2015, 10:53 PM
Aug 2015

you'd better watch this... if you truly want a brokered convention.

http://www.history.com/topics/1960s/videos/violence-batters-1968-democratic-convention

(Copyright note, fair use)

And after you are done, tell me, was America ready to elect a black man in 2008? Because I swear I heard plenty of supporters back then say this... "the country will never elect a black man to the white house." Or my favorite variation, "perhaps some day."

 

ericson00

(2,707 posts)
96. socialists in America were/are not oppressed like blacks in America
Sun Aug 30, 2015, 12:27 AM
Aug 2015

nor are they as large a population or constituency anywhere in America.

 

nadinbrzezinski

(154,021 posts)
98. You should read some history
Sun Aug 30, 2015, 12:36 AM
Aug 2015

starting with the Turner raids in the 1920s before you make such assumptions about persecution and all. Make a stop with HUAC as well.

Regardless, the red scare is no longer as popular as it was even 20 years ago. We have had a whole generation that has grown up after the fall of the wall, and have no idea why they should fear them damn commies. In fact, they don't.

Heck, I spent my evening with friends. Some of them are from that dreaded leftist persuasion and...self identified leftists. Some of these are kids who are also looking forwards to voting for this guy...and they were part of the Obama coalition as well. Sorry but after a certain point they all start to look like kids, even 30 and late 20 something's.

Anecdotal, but poling data by age supports this observation.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/12/29/young-people-socialism_n_1175218.html

By the way, they will be the generation that will see the end of the 20th century 'isms...incidentally that does include left, right and yes...people are also talking of post capitalism.

 

nadinbrzezinski

(154,021 posts)
103. No it is not slavery
Sun Aug 30, 2015, 12:58 AM
Aug 2015

but as far as Jim Crow, many of those who were identified as commies lost their livelyhoods. Most died in penury, some spent years in jail. You really need to learn some history. More than just a few left the country as political refugees, incidentally like more than one African American intellectual. Some were one and the same.

So if this is not as bad as Jim Crow then bloody commies should have an easier time getting elected? I am just using your pretzel logic here.

And you still have to address the dreadful idea of a brokered convention. I guess we need another riot outside the convention, and a generation of new voters to learn how rigged the political system is..after all, we need another very public Chicago 7 trial. Yup, that is the ticket

Is a democratic socialist, incidentally not the same as a socialist, or run for them hills a....communist (gasp!!!) scares you that much? Serious. That you are actually endorsing going back to the pre 1968 party selection system? While at it, should we reconvene the HUAC?

And people did do the exact same shit in 2008. Some even became PUMAs. Are we heading the same route? I think we are.

 

Joe the Revelator

(14,915 posts)
101. To be already invoking such an anti-democratic solution to the "Bernie Problem"
Sun Aug 30, 2015, 12:56 AM
Aug 2015

Does not bode well for Sec. Clinton.

Rosa Luxemburg

(28,627 posts)
109. Bernie is only 6 years older than Hillary who is also graying
Sun Aug 30, 2015, 01:30 AM
Aug 2015

In 2008 even though she had endorsements and delegates she still lost.

 

MoveIt

(399 posts)
131. She is going to lose
Sun Aug 30, 2015, 12:03 PM
Aug 2015

It's substance-free attack posts like yours that make me look forward to when Sanders and O'Malley wipe the floor with her in the debates.

kenn3d

(486 posts)
78. As reported from the Bloomberg side
Sat Aug 29, 2015, 08:39 PM
Aug 2015

Sanders Within Striking Distance of Clinton in Iowa
..."It looks like what people call the era of inevitability is over," said J. Ann Selzer, president of West Des Moines, Iowa-based Selzer & Co., which conducted the poll. "She has lost a third of the support that she had in May, so any time you lose that much that quickly, it’s a wake-up call."
---
The decline in Clinton's rating in the poll comes despite her dominance of the local broadcast airwaves. During the past month, she was the only Democratic candidate or political action committee advertising on Iowa broadcast television stations. The heavy Clinton buy, which aired in Des Moines and Cedar Rapids, focused on her biography and her record as a champion of American families. According to Kantar/CMAG data, the Clinton campaign was not only unopposed on the Democratic side, but had more than twice as many spots in the markets where it bought, than all Republican advertising combined.
---
The biggest surprise is Sanders. Unlike his recent strong showing in New Hampshire polls, his performance here cannot be dismissed as a result of the Vermont lawmaker’s regional appeal.
---
"On paper, he’s not the kind of candidate that traditionally ends up as the nominee," Selzer said of Sanders. "But he’s making them feel good about being a Democrat."
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-08-29/sanders-within-striking-distance-of-clinton-in-iowa
 

Joe the Revelator

(14,915 posts)
102. As a non-Sanders supporter, and a person who honestly thought he had a snowball's chance....
Sun Aug 30, 2015, 12:57 AM
Aug 2015

This is pretty amazing to watch.

 

nadinbrzezinski

(154,021 posts)
104. As a political reporter
Sun Aug 30, 2015, 01:09 AM
Aug 2015

who gives two shits who wins I am getting whiplash to 2008...including proto-PUMAS. I admit, I gave Bernie good odds...alas I started taking Trump seriously well before the MSM is just starting to.

It is the historic moment we are. And his method is now spreading to a local council race...go to the people and get them behind you.



A usually boring and predictable race, even locally, will not be. I am happy.

 

SoLeftIAmRight

(4,883 posts)
106. People know that the system is not working...
Sun Aug 30, 2015, 01:20 AM
Aug 2015

Give them a choice and they will take it

THE TIME IS RIPE

 

Indepatriot

(1,253 posts)
107. I'm trying not to get too geeked up by some early polls but GODAMN IT"S LOOKING GOOD!!!!!
Sun Aug 30, 2015, 01:26 AM
Aug 2015

I'm thinking its very possible that by February it WON'T EVEN BE CLOSE. Sanders message resonates DEEP with the Middle and Working Class and I think he's going to win going away......

delrem

(9,688 posts)
108. Well, there's a small consolation for everyone.
Sun Aug 30, 2015, 01:30 AM
Aug 2015

Clearly Hillary hasn't bottomed out yet, and Bernie hasn't plateaued.

So we've all got something to look forward to!

yay!

 

Huddie94

(25 posts)
120. Dismissive, condescending, borderline nasty... what's not to like?
Sun Aug 30, 2015, 08:07 AM
Aug 2015

We're such idiots to support Bernie Sanders.

Thing is, Hillary Clinton has been speaking of Bernie's efforts as though he's no more than an annoyance for most of 2015. And now the Hillary supporters emphasize that she's getting all the insider endorsements -- missing it entirely that Bernie's messages are attracting followers precisely because of Democratic Establishment failures.

"Establishment endorses Hillary" is perfect for Bernie.

Income inequality, global warming, student debt, insider attacks on SCHIP/food stamps/Social Security, protecting voting rights and more -- Hillary's Establishment have failed the American people. They're not quite as bad as the Republican fascists. Big whoop.

With $150,000,000 in income mostly from the financial industry, Hillary can hardly deny the Clintons' relationships there.

 

4dsc

(5,787 posts)
126. The revolution is gaining momentum
Sun Aug 30, 2015, 11:08 AM
Aug 2015

Although this is good news for Bernie fans we must remember that Hillary has quite the organization here in Iowa. She has a representative in every precinct in Iowa. But I wonder how many of them have turned though ..

CrispyQ

(36,476 posts)
127. Really good CNN interview with him here:
Sun Aug 30, 2015, 11:15 AM
Aug 2015
http://my.democrats.org/page/s/contact-the-democrats

Jack Tapper does a good job! He asks questions & then shuts up & lets Bernie talk. I was impressed.
 

SheilaT

(23,156 posts)
129. Meanwhile, the Hillary group
Sun Aug 30, 2015, 11:38 AM
Aug 2015

seems either completely unaware of the rapid decline in her numbers, or simply repeat that he's peaked, she has all the endorsements, and byGod it's her turn now!

Oddly enough, they point to his being from a very White People state as proof of his unelectability.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/110717424

And if he's not picking up at least some of the supporters that used to be hers, where in the world is his support coming from?

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