2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNew Poll: Sanders pulls within 7 percent of Clinton in Iowa
She's the first choice of 37 percent of likely Democratic caucusgoers; he's the pick for 30 percent, according to a new Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll.
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2015/08/29/iowa-poll-democrats-august/71387664/
#FeeltheBern
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)John Poet
(2,510 posts)or Hillary would have to start worrying!
billhicks76
(5,082 posts)What's happens to our country (or what doesn't happen really) if Clinton gets the nod will be on all of you who voted for her. Must be nice believing all the lies just to feel better.
PatrynXX
(5,668 posts)connected at the hip with Donald if she gets the nod it'll be like Donald getting the nod on the right. you get what you get and we are f*cked.
left-of-center2012
(34,195 posts)The supporters of some other Democratic candidate posted the other day that Sanders had "peaked".
Response to left-of-center2012 (Reply #52)
Name removed Message auto-removed
SheilaT
(23,156 posts)a lot of people here started posting that Sanders had peaked. It's not worth tracking down the very first post that said that, of course, but ever since he peaked he's continued to climb. How bizarre is that? Obviously the vast herd of potential voters out there don't bother to pay much attention to what's said on DU.
left-of-center2012
(34,195 posts)I think that was wishful thinking by the supporters of "another candidate".
Babel_17
(5,400 posts)The people who respond to polls aren't property, and they're looking less and less fungible into voters who will show up for you. Imo, it's being proven to have been a mistake to tout so heavily the circular logic of "inevitability". Now ever day instead of it being just a matter of the underdog gaining ground, it's about a contrived edifice crumbling publicly, and loudly. And going by that prior circular logic, that inarguably means something very important. Though when using a more reality based logic, it actually is indicative of sands shifting in an important way.
Hmm, "The sands are shifting for Sanders"? lol
jfern
(5,204 posts)And the previous closest poll (from any firm) was Hillary up 19.
Fawke Em
(11,366 posts)ericson00
(2,707 posts)and when it is an outlier, lets see how you guys like it.
sabrina 1
(62,325 posts)more and more common. In WV eg, Bernie is surging ahead of Hillary, in NH, same thing, now in Iowa and he has done all this in just a few months starting with practically no name recognition.
When do 'outliers' become the norm? I'm guessing in about another two months.
HereSince1628
(36,063 posts)As things go negative rapidly, an outlier that has values near the past running avg doesn't look like an outlier.
It works the same way in the other direction.
THere's no reason to believe a priori that Clinton's recent 52% in Iowa wasn't the sort of outlier described above. Just days ago the narrative was how Iowans were remaining loyal to Clinton based on that number.
The only way to see the outliers is fitting the curve and looking at residuals, but the curve fitting itself is problematic at the moving end of a noisy non-linear trajectory where we most earnestly want the truth
Fawke Em
(11,366 posts)If they weren't following these lines, I might agree. Outliers are those little bumps up and down - not a clear pattern:
ericson00
(2,707 posts)abusing their old rating to get publicity.
artislife
(9,497 posts)zazen
(2,978 posts)IVoteDFL
(417 posts)Robbins
(5,066 posts)thinking bernie could win iowa and NH and ms inevitiable could collapse like a house of cards.
Huddie94
(25 posts)That the two campaigns are linked in voters' minds?
The big change recently in Iowa is that the superPAC supporting Jeb! started running television ads. It's all "personality" stuff pushing a youthful image. And voters don't buy a line of it.
That fits with what you've been saying about the ->Hillary campaign. Her core supporters like her a lot but many Democratic voters react negatively when they see her on the campaign trail. When she went out in that orange pantsuit, it could have been 1994 again. Nobody dresses like that in 2015.
People do not want repeats of the 90s or the 00s. That was failing to get health care reform and the dot.com crashes and then both 9/11 and Iraq. Seems like rejecting Jeb! ties in with rejecting Hillary Clinton. Not sure at all why that works.
AtomicKitten
(46,585 posts)neverforget
(9,436 posts)senz
(11,945 posts)HereSince1628
(36,063 posts)Even with Biden out of the race this is like a floor collapsed.
With Biden in she sinks below 40%...
7 points is approaching margin of error territory.
senz
(11,945 posts)Hate to think what might have happened otherwise.
artislife
(9,497 posts)Uncle Joe
(58,364 posts)Thanks for the thread, Fawke Em.
ram2008
(1,238 posts)Wonder how Nate is going to spin this one .
Motown_Johnny
(22,308 posts)^snip^
"This feels like 2008 all over again," said J. Ann Selzer, pollster for the Iowa Poll.
In that race, Clinton led John Edwards by 6 percentage points and Barack Obama by 7 points in an early October Iowa Poll. But Obama, buoyed by younger voters and first-time caucusgoers, surged ahead by late November.
In this cycle, Sanders is attracting more first-time caucusgoers than Clinton. He claims 43 percent of their vote compared to 31 percent for Clinton. He also leads by 23 percentage points with the under-45 crowd and by 21 points among independent voters.
AtomicKitten
(46,585 posts)Motown_Johnny
(22,308 posts)This is (obviously) still August.
I'm still seeing a trend where Bernie will pull even with her, maybe even be slightly ahead of her, by the first debate.
bvar22
(39,909 posts)but that doesn't get much mention,
and got NO mention in the Media (MSNBC) that night. Neither Rachel nor Olberman mentioned Edwards by name.
That was weird. How can a news organization cover 1st and 3rd Place,
and not even mention 2nd?
I guess "the word" was already handed down from management about Edwards.
arcane1
(38,613 posts)HereSince1628
(36,063 posts)That was a disappointment after a tremendous investment of time and resources.
It's possible the word was in from management...about his relationships with you know who. The Enquirer had printed accusations in late 2007 so it's possible that was a factor with someone who controlled production of the coverage.
ram2008
(1,238 posts)Bernie taking the caucus by a solid margin, Biden in second with Clinton in third.
History seems to be repeating itself.
Le Taz Hot
(22,271 posts)I REALLY need to read the board BEFORE posting. I just posted the same thing. K & R and I'll delete the other one
Fawke Em
(11,366 posts)nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)that this was not going to happen, like ever. I am getting a bad case of 2008 flashbacks.
Hydra
(14,459 posts)As a friend of mine used to say "I disbelieve..I disbelieve...Dammit, they're still here!"
HereSince1628
(36,063 posts)Not sure those promisory notes from superdelegates at the DNC summer coffee latch for Clinton are going to mean much.
HerbChestnut
(3,649 posts)This is not an Anti-Hillary vote. This is absolutely a Pro-Bernie vote, and 19% of Iowans *still* don't know enough about him to make a decision. He's going to win Iowa.
cali
(114,904 posts)John Poet
(2,510 posts)in my opinion.... Bernie really needs to take Iowa AND New Hampshire to have any chance at all.
If he does, I think all the "conventional wisdom" will have to be recalculated, and all the "shallow support" being reported for Hillary in national polling will begin a major shift.
artislife
(9,497 posts)askew
(1,464 posts)The lack of debates is killing his name recognition. He isn't going to be able to go from 3% (8% without Biden) to a decent showing with 1 debate in November. Not sure how he continues to fundraise with those poll numbers either.
However, the good news is that Hillary's lead is shrinking. She is going to be a dead weight on the Dem Party if she wins the nomination with her horrible favorables/trustworthy #s. So, I am hoping Sanders can pull off an upset and knock her out early.
When I was in Iowa for 1 weekend , I saw Hillary's ad easily 50 times. It was one 3x in one commercial break during the Vikings game. Her campaign has to be seeing some bad #s in Iowa to be airing that many ads. Considering how lame her ad was, I am not surprised it isn't helping her.
Fawke Em
(11,366 posts)askew
(1,464 posts)Completely vapid. Lots of close-ups in Oprah lighting of Hillary looking like she is trying to feel our pain and images of her mom. Silly ad. Every time it came on all the Iowans in the room (D and R) would roll their eyes and say there was no way they'd vote for her.
Fawke Em
(11,366 posts)Saw a great rant on that somewhere...
Wish I could find it again. If I do, I'll post it.
cali
(114,904 posts)Interesting about the ads
Hydra
(14,459 posts)And while he may not get the nomination, the more he is out there promoting the idea that we as a party should stand for things and not be DLCist the better things will be for everyone. He could come out of this as someone known and trusted for later consideration.
draa
(975 posts)I could get behind that idea because I like O'Malley almost as much as Sanders. Bernie could certainly do worse.
vadermike
(1,415 posts)He may be our nominee. Would be great but how will we compete with billion dollar GOP campaign. Where would our money come from ?
HerbChestnut
(3,649 posts)That you don't need the most money to win an election. He has been outspent continuously his entire political life, but look where he is now. Trust in the people.
RoccoR5955
(12,471 posts)Money does not vote, people do, and Bernie has many more people than the GOP can hope for!
artislife
(9,497 posts)because the will support him in the general according to every H supporter here.
And Bernie, O'Malley and the rest of the people who have had enough of the billionaires buying the elections.
juajen
(8,515 posts)..
RufusTFirefly
(8,812 posts)Our democracy depends on it!
Hydra
(14,459 posts)I would say the DLC and GOP top brass are dumbfounded that their money advantage is getting them pretty much nowhere.
The problem is that most Americans don't see a bright future for themselves in the status quo. There's no way they can make that looks shiny again.
aikoaiko
(34,170 posts)Bernie needs to work on South Carolina now.
K lib
(153 posts)Hillary 43%
Bernie 35%
Still 19% unsure about Bernie Sanders
SoapBox
(18,791 posts)And as the campaigns get rolling even more, old as well as new dislike will grow for her...people are tired of her.
But what they needed was a common sense, honest and authentic candidate...we now have him, finally...Bernie Sanders.
Every minute of every single day, hundreds, thousands of Americans hear Bernie's mainstream, non-Bankster, non-billionaire message...and jump onboard his campaign.
Go Bernie! Go Team Bernie!
He is also starting to be competitive with The Clown Car now too.. beating all buttheads in NH ... i wonder how he would fare against the clown car in NV, CO, IA, WI etc and OR WA, OH, PA..... ETC..
artislife
(9,497 posts)they had 15,000 and 28,000 show up for him already. They (we) are pretty progressive.
Cascadia rocks!
Puzzledtraveller
(5,937 posts)and junkies (us) and the average joes and janes get to chime in, HC is toast.
Robbins
(5,066 posts)all his support doesn't go to her.
Hillary would rise to 43% without Biden but Bernie would rise to 35% showing some who support Biden would support Bernie.
O'Malley would rise from 3% to 5% without Biden.
ibegurpard
(16,685 posts)Old Crow
(2,212 posts)Original artwork: "The End of the Dinosaurs" by Mark Stevenson (aka MasPix).
Jack Rabbit
(45,984 posts)Fawke Em
(11,366 posts)Old Crow
(2,212 posts)It still makes me smile, too--especially when I imagine the T-Rex bellowing "Nooooooo!" and flailing its little arms back and forth.
Old Crow
(2,212 posts)peacebird
(14,195 posts)cascadiance
(19,537 posts)These dinosaur "friends" should be in this pic too!
Old Crow
(2,212 posts)Jack Rabbit
(45,984 posts)[center]
[/center]
aidbo
(2,328 posts)Le Taz Hot
(22,271 posts)And welcome to DU. You have good taste in music.
DiehardLiberal
(580 posts)When they played that at the Portland rally I had chills...
cascadiance
(19,537 posts)And Midnight Oil feels that the Beds are BERNING!!!
Banksters are going to be made to say this too when he gets elected!
The time has come
To say fair's fair
To pay the rent
To pay our share
The time has come
A fact's a fact
It belongs to them
Let's give it back
How can we dance when our earth is turning
How do we sleep while our beds are burning
...
hootinholler
(26,449 posts)The Quinnepac poll has Hillary's lead at 23 points now. That's a 15 point drop from their last poll.
Huddie94
(25 posts)"Sanders is attracting more first-time caucusgoers than Clinton. He claims 43 percent of their vote compared to 31 percent for Clinton. He also leads by 23 percentage points with the under-45 crowd and by 21 points among independent voters."
That's from the Des Moines Register piece.
What happened with Obama and Edwards was that their first timers went to the caucuses and stuck it out all evening to vote. Bigger impact than the poll numbers predicted. Enthusiasm matters.
If anything, this cycle's Sanders supporters are hyper-enthusiastic. Look for a big turnout in February if things keep going like what we see today.
cali
(114,904 posts)negative. I don't mean minor sniping, but tv and internet ads and a non-stop cavalcade of heavy hitter surrogates. Even if they're sure they can stop him on super Tuesday, they don't want her in a fight with someone who is considered a low stature fringe candidate.
HereSince1628
(36,063 posts)It's going to be as angry as 2007-08.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)it is going to be far, far, far, far angrier
HereSince1628
(36,063 posts)to fend off the mountain lions...
LiberalLovinLug
(14,174 posts)with some country music in the background.
and maybe Sam Elliott narrating?
I think I'm kidding
ericson00
(2,707 posts)Don't let reality get u guys down, tho.
HereSince1628
(36,063 posts)It's looking more and more unlikely that Sanders will only get 2 states.
Of course, the Yellowstone super volcano -could- explode making it all ash covered mootness.
HerbChestnut
(3,649 posts)cali
(114,904 posts)for her to be competing with a low stature "fringe" candidate.
HereSince1628
(36,063 posts)via a 2 digit fall in 10 days or so? That must be terrifyingly reminiscent to supporters of the experienced re-runner
frylock
(34,825 posts)reality is becoming more real by the day!
ericson00
(2,707 posts)and if it has to come to a smokefilled room, so be it. The superdelegates will also not allow a socialist to get the nomination, hence why Hillary has way more endorsements than at this point in 2008.
Hydra
(14,459 posts)Mind you, Bernie is a mild one, but what happens when the unthinkable occurs, and the red scare goes away?
What happens when an actual socialist movement gains steam and rolls back the Reagan Revolution/Overthrow of our democracy?
Scary stuff to consider...
cali
(114,904 posts)HereSince1628
(36,063 posts)The progressive side has been fed up with the conservative side of the party for a decade. That was so obvious the DLC had to rebrand.
The superdelegates over-turning the base would be traumatic and destructive in the states that form "the blue wall" just at a time when demographics really start to favor democrats across the country.
But, grabbing defeat from the jaws of victory isn't unheard of for the DNC
frylock
(34,825 posts)if the party machine decides to select Clinton, you show an entire generation of new voters that the system is rigged.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)you'd better watch this... if you truly want a brokered convention.
http://www.history.com/topics/1960s/videos/violence-batters-1968-democratic-convention
(Copyright note, fair use)
And after you are done, tell me, was America ready to elect a black man in 2008? Because I swear I heard plenty of supporters back then say this... "the country will never elect a black man to the white house." Or my favorite variation, "perhaps some day."
ericson00
(2,707 posts)nor are they as large a population or constituency anywhere in America.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)starting with the Turner raids in the 1920s before you make such assumptions about persecution and all. Make a stop with HUAC as well.
Regardless, the red scare is no longer as popular as it was even 20 years ago. We have had a whole generation that has grown up after the fall of the wall, and have no idea why they should fear them damn commies. In fact, they don't.
Heck, I spent my evening with friends. Some of them are from that dreaded leftist persuasion and...self identified leftists. Some of these are kids who are also looking forwards to voting for this guy...and they were part of the Obama coalition as well. Sorry but after a certain point they all start to look like kids, even 30 and late 20 something's.
Anecdotal, but poling data by age supports this observation.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/12/29/young-people-socialism_n_1175218.html
By the way, they will be the generation that will see the end of the 20th century 'isms...incidentally that does include left, right and yes...people are also talking of post capitalism.
ericson00
(2,707 posts)this is sickening I have to even point that out.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)but as far as Jim Crow, many of those who were identified as commies lost their livelyhoods. Most died in penury, some spent years in jail. You really need to learn some history. More than just a few left the country as political refugees, incidentally like more than one African American intellectual. Some were one and the same.
So if this is not as bad as Jim Crow then bloody commies should have an easier time getting elected? I am just using your pretzel logic here.
And you still have to address the dreadful idea of a brokered convention. I guess we need another riot outside the convention, and a generation of new voters to learn how rigged the political system is..after all, we need another very public Chicago 7 trial. Yup, that is the ticket
Is a democratic socialist, incidentally not the same as a socialist, or run for them hills a....communist (gasp!!!) scares you that much? Serious. That you are actually endorsing going back to the pre 1968 party selection system? While at it, should we reconvene the HUAC?
And people did do the exact same shit in 2008. Some even became PUMAs. Are we heading the same route? I think we are.
Joe the Revelator
(14,915 posts)Does not bode well for Sec. Clinton.
Rosa Luxemburg
(28,627 posts)In 2008 even though she had endorsements and delegates she still lost.
ericson00
(2,707 posts)Also, here is presidential and KEMPT:
Rosa Luxemburg
(28,627 posts)don't mean that she is going to win and she is quite old.
MoveIt
(399 posts)It's substance-free attack posts like yours that make me look forward to when Sanders and O'Malley wipe the floor with her in the debates.
cyberswede
(26,117 posts)I don't.
Rosa Luxemburg
(28,627 posts)grahamhgreen
(15,741 posts)Utopian Leftist
(534 posts)Logical
(22,457 posts)Indepatriot
(1,253 posts)thereismore
(13,326 posts)Duval
(4,280 posts)WillyT
(72,631 posts)greiner3
(5,214 posts)We still have work to do or bu bye!!!
kenn3d
(486 posts)Sanders Within Striking Distance of Clinton in Iowa
..."It looks like what people call the era of inevitability is over," said J. Ann Selzer, president of West Des Moines, Iowa-based Selzer & Co., which conducted the poll. "She has lost a third of the support that she had in May, so any time you lose that much that quickly, its a wake-up call."
---
The decline in Clinton's rating in the poll comes despite her dominance of the local broadcast airwaves. During the past month, she was the only Democratic candidate or political action committee advertising on Iowa broadcast television stations. The heavy Clinton buy, which aired in Des Moines and Cedar Rapids, focused on her biography and her record as a champion of American families. According to Kantar/CMAG data, the Clinton campaign was not only unopposed on the Democratic side, but had more than twice as many spots in the markets where it bought, than all Republican advertising combined.
---
The biggest surprise is Sanders. Unlike his recent strong showing in New Hampshire polls, his performance here cannot be dismissed as a result of the Vermont lawmakers regional appeal.
---
"On paper, hes not the kind of candidate that traditionally ends up as the nominee," Selzer said of Sanders. "But hes making them feel good about being a Democrat."
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-08-29/sanders-within-striking-distance-of-clinton-in-iowa
JDPriestly
(57,936 posts)Feel the Bern.
MerryBlooms
(11,770 posts)Bo Bernie!!!
cantbeserious
(13,039 posts)eom
Enthusiast
(50,983 posts)Joe the Revelator
(14,915 posts)This is pretty amazing to watch.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)who gives two shits who wins I am getting whiplash to 2008...including proto-PUMAS. I admit, I gave Bernie good odds...alas I started taking Trump seriously well before the MSM is just starting to.
It is the historic moment we are. And his method is now spreading to a local council race...go to the people and get them behind you.
A usually boring and predictable race, even locally, will not be. I am happy.
avaistheone1
(14,626 posts)SoLeftIAmRight
(4,883 posts)Give them a choice and they will take it
THE TIME IS RIPE
Indepatriot
(1,253 posts)I'm thinking its very possible that by February it WON'T EVEN BE CLOSE. Sanders message resonates DEEP with the Middle and Working Class and I think he's going to win going away......
delrem
(9,688 posts)Clearly Hillary hasn't bottomed out yet, and Bernie hasn't plateaued.
So we've all got something to look forward to!
yay!
marym625
(17,997 posts)The tides are turning.
Unknown Beatle
(2,672 posts)as evidenced by their posts.
Feel The Bern!
Huddie94
(25 posts)We're such idiots to support Bernie Sanders.
Thing is, Hillary Clinton has been speaking of Bernie's efforts as though he's no more than an annoyance for most of 2015. And now the Hillary supporters emphasize that she's getting all the insider endorsements -- missing it entirely that Bernie's messages are attracting followers precisely because of Democratic Establishment failures.
"Establishment endorses Hillary" is perfect for Bernie.
Income inequality, global warming, student debt, insider attacks on SCHIP/food stamps/Social Security, protecting voting rights and more -- Hillary's Establishment have failed the American people. They're not quite as bad as the Republican fascists. Big whoop.
With $150,000,000 in income mostly from the financial industry, Hillary can hardly deny the Clintons' relationships there.
Unknown Beatle
(2,672 posts)but she doesn't walk the walk.
Welcome to DU, Huddie94
NCjack
(10,279 posts)Wasn't she up by 20 points a week ago??
4dsc
(5,787 posts)Although this is good news for Bernie fans we must remember that Hillary has quite the organization here in Iowa. She has a representative in every precinct in Iowa. But I wonder how many of them have turned though ..
CrispyQ
(36,476 posts)Jack Tapper does a good job! He asks questions & then shuts up & lets Bernie talk. I was impressed.
SheilaT
(23,156 posts)seems either completely unaware of the rapid decline in her numbers, or simply repeat that he's peaked, she has all the endorsements, and byGod it's her turn now!
Oddly enough, they point to his being from a very White People state as proof of his unelectability.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/110717424
And if he's not picking up at least some of the supporters that used to be hers, where in the world is his support coming from?