538's Harry Enten: "We Got Berned"

[Attorney in Texas]

A few weeks ago, I wrote a piece headlined “The Bernie Sanders Surge Appears To Be Over.” The article (and, more emphatically, the headline) argued that Sanders’s rapid ascent in the presidential primary polls had slowed or stopped in polls of New Hampshire and Iowa, at least based on the polls we were seeing at that time. Ever since then, Bernie Sanders fans have been tweeting at me — sometimes kindly, sometimes not — after every new poll that showed their candidate doing well.

And guess what? ... polls in August showed Sanders continuing to pick up support in New Hampshire...

First, let’s talk a bit more about his recent gains in the polls, .. Sanders picked up the pace in August, and support for Hillary Clinton has slowly dropped, according to live-interview polls. ... There was a lot of coverage of this weekend’s Des Moines Register poll (produced by top-notch pollster Ann Selzer), which found Clinton leading Sanders by just 7 percentage points, 37 percent to 30 percent. ... So, Clinton’s margin over Sanders is at its lowest in both Iowa and New Hampshire. And while national polls weren’t the focus of my initial article, Sanders has also closed in on Clinton in those.

the whole article.

[cali]

1. weasel words, harry.

[AtomicKitten]

2. "herp derp"

[Le Taz Hot]

3. Ah, he's still covering his ass.

Bernie's a "factional candidate." Repeating the same DNC talking point about minorities COMPLETELY IGNORE THE FACT that most people STILL don't know who he is.

[VanillaRhapsody]

5. Why dont they?

He's been there 40 years

[cali]

7. lol. most people don't know who the vice president is, 'nilla

[druidity33]

8. maybe because

he hasn't had a single major scandal attached to his name?

[VanillaRhapsody]

9. Maybe its because

He's passed so many successful bills?

[SMC22307]

27. I work with people who happily take advantage of FMLA...

but have no fucking clue that Ted Kennedy was behind it. Successful legislation, used every damn day, and Americans are clueless.

And as cali mentioned up-thread, an embarrassing number of Americans can't name the VICE PRESIDENT at any given time. Hell, I'd wager many Americans can't even name their own senators. So it really shouldn't come as any surprise to you that a Vermont senator is unknown to many. But that's rapidly changing...

[VanillaRhapsody]

32. Annnnnnnnndddddd this means what?

40 yrs my friend.....please show me this "success" people dont know about

[morningfog]

17. And how long will you last this time? A day?

Two?

[Bobbie Jo]

22. Ok so is this a thing, or what?

Again with the hall monitor schtick.

[morningfog]

23. Are you monitoring me?

Lol!

[Bobbie Jo]

24. Just reading the thread

and remembering that this appears to be a thing of some sort.

[Scootaloo]

30. Looks like either a betting pool or a drinking game.

I hope the former; I'd rather lose five bucks than die of alcohol poisoning.

[Fawke Em]

25. Oh! You're live.

Most people don't know who he is because of my former, yet still beloved profession, the media.

The halcyon days when I could report the facts and give people information somehow evaporated over the past 12 years. No, I don't accredit that to my having to leave the profession as a young stay-at-home mother who still freelanced, but had to leave because I was divorcing a serial cheater. I hated leaving the one and only profession I wanted and was suited at doing from the time I was 12 so I could go into PR, a profession I was also trained into as a communication major, so I could stay in my hometown with a family to help me raise the toddler my ex abandoned.

I worked in a very right-wing area, but I got to interview Al Gore: he called me at home as a student reporter when we were trying to make campus police records public. He, our Uncle Joe and Orin Hatch, of all people, were pulling for the judge to open them. If not, those three were going to introduce a bill. We won in summary judgement. I always knew when then Sen. Gore was in town. He was a sweetie, a prankster, the fun guy. Why he became wood on TV, I'll never know. That's NOT how I know Al.

I interviewed Jack Kemp. On a bus. In the heat with my news editor, who was a Republican at the time. That was a big deal for our little tourism berg of the world.

I got to interview John McCain.

I spent a whole day with Fred Thompson touring what could have been the thank-you-so-much-for-your-contrabution Smokey Mountains. And he didn't do it.

So... you go do what you need to do to make yourself sound pretty.

[VanillaRhapsody]

33. Annnnnndddddd his successful

Legislation?

[Fawke Em]

36. I'd rather stop trying than to send hundreds

to their deaths.

If that's all you got out of all that, then I feel so sorry for you.

[VanillaRhapsody]

37. thats It?

In 40 yrs, tha's all you've got?

Psssssstttttt Protip...Bernie said he wont even end the drone program

[Fawke Em]

40. Protip: Your candidate loves to kill Muslims.

[VanillaRhapsody]

51. Evidently then

So does yours....drones don't tickle

[Cry]

59. Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaandd here's your answer...

https://www.congress.gov/member/bernard-sanders/S000033?resultIndex=2&q=%7B%22search%22%3A%5B%22bernie+sanders%22%5D%2C%22sponsorship%22%3A%22cosponsored%22%2C%22congress%22%3A%22all%22%2C%22bill-status%22%3A%5B%22law%22%2C%22introduced%22%5D%7D

4,935 bills co-sponsored, 203 bills became law.

Of 350 bills that he sponsored, only 3 became laws. One bill helps the veterans tremendously, and two P.O. names.

Hillary?

https://www.congress.gov/member/hillary-clinton/C001041?resultIndex=1&q=%7B%22search%22%3A%5B%22hillary+clinton%22%5D%2C%22bill-status%22%3A%22law%22%2C%22sponsorship%22%3A%22cosponsored%22%7D

74 bills co-sponsored, all became law.

Of 407 bills she sponsored, only 3 became law - and all of them are names.

Next argument, please. VanillaRhapsody.

[VanillaRhapsody]

64. That HE proposed...or just agreed with?

Afterall the discussion is why isnt he famous?

[VanillaRhapsody]

66. No the discussion is

Why isnt he famous after 40 years there..

Success brings fame....

[dsc]

10. except that isn't true

He is now known by a majority of even minorities (it seems even they have things like TV, books, and the internet). It isn't a huge majority but a majority and his numbers still aren't rising amongst them.

[Le Taz Hot]

11. Really?

I haven't seen stats on that, that the majority of minorities now know him. Thanks in advance for the link.

[dsc]

12. I provided the link in another thread

but here are the numbers while I track it down. In NC, we don't have a very early primary here so we are not an especially attentive audience, the numbers are 37 favorable, 20 unfavorable, and 43 no opinion among blacks. 43 isn't a majority and your exact words were a majority don't know him, not less than a majority do.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NC_81915.pdf

He is down to her 55/19 over all and 68 to 10 among blacks in the same poll.

No it isn't the nation as a whole but I do think it is a reasonable stand in. NC isn't an early primary state, we aren't having ads run in here, we don't have campaign events even in Charlotte which is near the boarder of SC so we are pretty much like any other state in that regard. We also have a good mix of both rural and urban. 57 percent have an opinion of him (ie know who he is) and 43 don't.

[Le Taz Hot]

13. Well, then I stand corrected.

43% in North Carolina don't know who he is. I'm venturing a guess that 100% have heard of Hillary. Time is on his side. Hillary? Not so much.

[dsc]

44. you are wrong about that too

NC had about 13 percent who had no opinion of her it is at the link try reading the links you demand people produce. edited for type

[Scootaloo]

31. Sanders has room to grow. Clinton only has room to shrink.

I think of it like advertising. Every dollar spent on advertising gets less of a result than the one spent before it. It's diminishing returns. At some point your return-per-dollar is 0; you've saturated your target market. At that point the only direction left to go is down. You're no longer spending to reach a market, you're spending to keep a market. Your competitors have plenty of room to grow - at your inevitable expense, and you have to spend, and spend, and spend on advertising to keep your market loyal to you against them.

This is why advertising eats so much money from the coffers of the big companies - it's all a n attempt to tread water, to keep their market position, hold on to what they've got, against the constant downard tugs from the competition.

This is the position Clinton finds herself in. Yeah, she's on top - but her target market is saturated, and - being Democrats - notoriously fickle about their "brand loyalty." Strong competition is gaining on her, and she's already throwing money like Mardi Gras krewes throw moon-pies, five months before a single primary vote is cast.

She could very well hold that position all the way through. Maybe she will. But I wouldn't bank on it.

[VanillaRhapsody]

34. Good luck

You cannot win with just White males...
http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/55ca47f6e4b0f73b20bad91a

Or see post 4

[Fawke Em]

39. Thank you for the next bar to overcome.

We will.

Meanwhile, tell your Chicago-born woman to stop trying to speak Southern or Black or whatever her flat accent was trying to do to stop. It's demeaning.

[VanillaRhapsody]

41. she has about 97% of thier support

Already..... I dont think her accent is a problem ...why should you?

[Fawke Em]

42. "Their"

And I'm Southern.

It's demeaning.

Bernie doesn't come down here and sound like something out of the "A Streetcar Named Desire," Blanche.

[dsc]

45. she lived in AK for decades

that makes her more southern than half of NC are we all fakers too.

[bigbrother05]

52. Could she see Sarah Palin? or did you mean AR

Apologies for the snark, just a peeve

[VanillaRhapsody]

50. And I'm half

Should I speak Southern or not?

[Cry]

60. half what?

I could think of a few, but not going to go that far.

[VanillaRhapsody]

67. Half Southern

My father is...my mother is not...

So if I say Y'all am I just faking it?

[Scootaloo]

46. Thanks for your well-wishes! n/t

[VanillaRhapsody]

49. You are going to need all can get

[Scootaloo]

63. That grey splot on your avatar keeps making me think my screen needs cleaning

Is that s'posta be there? It's not as bad as that guy with the crawly bug signature at least.

[VanillaRhapsody]

68. Yes....its the shit getting kicked out

[Scootaloo]

69. Creative n/t

[VanillaRhapsody]

4. Herp derp indeed

And guess what? They sorta have a point. Although his gains may not be as great as before, polls in August showed Sanders continuing to pick up support in New Hampshire (the situation in Iowa is less clear). But the fundamentals of the race haven’t changed very much. In particular, Sanders has shown little sign of winning over votes from African-Americans or Hispanics, which would limit his growth as the race moves on to more racially diverse states.

[ram2008]

14. Very low quality article once again...

Nate should be the one making the articles not Harry.

Seems to be an article devoid of any real math and just non-sensical speculation.

"Bernie needs to do better with minorities " Duh, he does. Now tell me why you think that's not possible... or what happens when he actually does start taking some of the minority vote.

"Hillary leads in endorsements" Obviously she's the establishment candidate, she will probably win every single other Democratic endorsement from the party.

The whole article is starting with the faulty assumption that Bernie cannot win over minority votes, yet there is no reason at all to believe this will be the case.

[Rod Beauvex]

28. I fully beleive...

That was the whole point of adding all these clowns to 538, was to diminish the words of Nate Silver, who I believe conservatives blame for making them lose.

[VanillaRhapsody]

38. well Silver is no friend of Sanders..

Last I heard he gave him a 2% chance

[Rod Beauvex]

48. My point still remains. :p

I think Nate, just by posting the facts, has the ability to influence the elections now. The R's know this, and do whatever they can to drown him out.

[Cry]

61. And immediately discredited.

Grain of salt and all that - you know, his libertarian streak.

Bernie stands an excellent chance of being our nominee. Just wondering if your rhetoric will change when that happens.

[pa28]

15. Summary: Ice unexpectedly encountered and bulkheads failed. Ship unsinkable. Strike up the band.

[John Poet]

47. “God himself could not sink this ship.”

The extent of the damage was not immediately evident.

[aikoaiko]

16. Bernie supporter haters really loved that original piece.

It's nice to see crow served up so nicely for dinner.

[morningfog]

18. It really is a thing of beauty.

[VanillaRhapsody]

35. What crow?

He still only has a 12% chance....dont count your crow babies before they are hatched.

[MoveIt]

58. "nom nom crow babies"

[frylock]

19. womp womp..

and judging by the tone of the article, Harry hasn't learned a thing by putting his hand on the Berner.

[WillyT]

20. HUGE K & R !!! - Thank You !!!

[morningfog]

21. Just kickin it.

[MannyGoldstein]

26. "But *this* time, we're really right!"

LOL.

[Scootaloo]

29. It's very weird watching people try to cash in their slips before the horses leave the gate.

[Warren DeMontague]

43. Well, well.

[Gothmog]

53. Did you read past the title of the article? This article is not the helpful to Sanders

I actually read all of the article and more importantely understood it. http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/bernie-sanders-new-hampshire/

And guess what? They sorta have a point. Although his gains may not be as great as before, polls in August showed Sanders continuing to pick up support in New Hampshire (the situation in Iowa is less clear). But the fundamentals of the race haven’t changed very much. In particular, Sanders has shown little sign of winning over votes from African-Americans or Hispanics, which would limit his growth as the race moves on to more racially diverse states.....

So why do I still think Sanders is a factional candidate? He hasn’t made any inroads with non-white voters — in particular black voters, a crucial wing of the Democratic coalition and whose support was a big part of President Obama’s toppling of Clinton in the 2008 primary. Not only are African-Americans the majority of Democratic voters in the South Carolina primary (a crucial early contest), they make up somewhere between 19 percent and 24 percent of Democrats nationwide. In the past two YouGov polls, Sanders has averaged just 5 percent with black voters. Ipsos’s weekly tracking poll has him at an average of only 7 percent over the past two weeks. Fox News (the only live-interview pollster to publish results among non-white voters in July and August) had Clinton leading Sanders 62-10 among non-white Democrats in mid-July and 65-14 in mid-August. Clinton’s edge with non-whites held even as Sanders cut her overall lead from 40 percentage points to 19.

There are other indications that Sanders is unlikely to win the nomination. He hasn’t won a single endorsement from a governor, senator or member of the U.S. House of Representatives (unlike Obama at this point in the 2008 campaign). Sanders is also well behind in the money race (again, unlike Obama). These indicators haven’t changed over the past month.

But even if you put aside those metrics, Sanders is running into the problem that other insurgent Democrats have in past election cycles. You can win Iowa relying mostly on white liberals. You can win New Hampshire. But as Gary Hart and Bill Bradley learned, you can’t win a Democratic nomination without substantial support from African-Americans.

Why are the Sanders' supporters so happy about this article??? Sanders is not going to be the nominee of the Democratic party.

[Attorney in Texas]

54. The long journey of Harry Enten's admission that he was wrong quite naturally begins with baby steps

[Gothmog]

55. You got to be kidding

The conclusion of the 538 people have not changed at all. Sanders will need to show some support among Hispanci and African American voting blocks in order to have a chance of being the nominee. The article did reflect any real change in the position of the 538 group.

[Attorney in Texas]

56. Harry Enten (who has been the most bearish at 538 on Sanders) said that Sanders had plateaued; now

Enten admits he was wrong.

No one at 538 says Sanders is now the favorite (likewise, I support Sanders, but I expect that I will probably be voting for Clinton in the general election) .

If this post was not an admission that Enten was wrong, what was the theme of his 538 post entitled "We got Berned"?

[Gothmog]

57. Again that is not my reading of the article

I read that last three paragraphs and it is clear that Eaton and 538 have not changed positions. You really should read the entire article

[Attorney in Texas]

62. You ought to re-read “The Bernie Sanders Surge Appears To Be Over” - Enten's analysis has changed.

Enten originally said

"In just a few months, the Vermont senator halved Hillary Clinton’s lead in Iowa and moved to within shouting distance of her in New Hampshire. But it’s probably time to change the verb tense. No longer is Sanders surging. He has surged. ... Sanders is maxing out on gains simply because of increased name recognition."

After predicting that Sanders rise was over in New Hampshire and Iowa, Enten is now admitting that Sanders' surge is actually increasing in pace:

"First, let’s talk a bit more about his recent gains in the polls, starting in New Hampshire. In the original article, I wrote that “Sanders rose from June to July in the Granite State, but his ascent slowed.” But Sanders picked up the pace in August, and support for Hillary Clinton has slowly dropped, according to live-interview polls."

Enten's admission of his error has conceded that Sanders (44%) has now passed Clinton (37%) in New Hampshire (which is not what happens after a "Surge Appears To Be Over” as Enten predicted). Enten also acknowledged that the "top-notch" Des Moines Register poll "found Clinton leading Sanders by just 7 percentage points," which is also contrary to Ebten's earlier prediction.

If Enten can admit that his original analysis was wrong, why is that so hard for you to admit?