2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumThe media is spinning to create a horse race-Read the trend lines
If you compare 2012 President Obama vs Robme and 2004 Asshat vs Kerry then President Obama is in good shape considering unemployment numbers.
Looking back at 2004 according to real clear politics at this same time of year:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/obama_vs_romney_compared_to_bush_vs_kerry.html
7/16/2004 National average
43.8 - Bush
46.5 - Kerry
Kerry was able to hold that lead UNTIL :
9/03/2004
48.3 -Bush
43.7 - Kerry
Kerry never lead again. Labor day was the difference. Everyone started paying attention after the convention and labor day. According to the averaging of RCP Kerry never lead again. He closed the gap but didn't take the lead. The media is spinning because they want viewers. They NEED a horse race. They need to turn any normal change in poll numbers to Robme's advantage. The fact that UE is above 8% and President Obama is anywhere near a tie let alone still ahead slightly speaks to this mans chances of being re-elected. It's not over yet. Not by a long shot. Once we get to labor day and the debates President Obama is going to take a lead and keep it. I really believe that.
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)Then Obama will have his convention and the race should get more or less even again. The debates, I think, are going to be critical. The jobs numbers are not going to do Obama any favors and, unfortunately, the last one will be on the Friday before the election. If it's bad then you know Romney will hit that during the last 72 hours. Hopefully in the next few months we'll see some marginal improvements in jobs, but I'm not holding my breath.
CoffeeCat
(24,411 posts)The media is incentivized to create a horse race because tgat sparks excitement and increases their ratings.
I seriously think that the Republicans have managed to nominate a candidate so disastrous, that his low numbers in the election could reveal that the polls are all rigged.
I really wouldn't be surprised if he isn't the nominee. Everyday is a disaster in his campaign, with no end on sight. His campaign's success was contingent upon Romney never doing interviews--because he sucks at them and he can't answer basic questions without sounding like an idiot because he's flip flopped do much.
However, with his constant problems and issues, he is forced to do interviews, which only hurts him further.
I don't see how Romney survives all of this.