So, when Joe Biden announces that he's not running...

[MineralMan]

What happens?

I think what happens is that people switch back to Hillary and the polls will reflect that. Right now, Hillary Clinton's drop in polling coincides with Biden's name appearing in those polls. Bernie is staying about the same.

So, when he announces that he won't be running, candidate Clinton will get a nice fat boost in her poll numbers. I wonder if that isn't the goal, really, of this whole "maybe he'll run" flyer.

Call me cynical or call me stupid, but I think he won't run, and his announcement of that will give the Clinton primary campaign a nice boost in the polling. If that's the case, it's a pretty clever bit of political campaign trickery.

[RKP5637]

1. I don't think he's going to run either. He seems too conflicted with it all right now. n/t

[SouthernProgressive]

2. He won't run in my opinion.

Not that Hillary is seeing much of a challenge now, but when Biden announces he won't be running, Hillary will simply be without a real challenger.

[morningfog]

9. No challenge? She's training in the first two contests and sinking nationally.

[R. Daneel Olivaw]

3. There's no way to know until Biden makes his

final descision.

But who knows how much HRC will pick up vs O'mally and Sanders?

[whatchamacallit]

4. You're cynical and/or stupid

Kidding, you invited it. 😝
Even if you can make the argument that much of Hillary's slide is due to a potential Biden run, it still says something about her negatives. Apparently a lot of people will only vote for her if they have to.

[MineralMan]

5. I'm not sure that follows, really.

I've been watching the polls, just like everyone else. Biden's presence in polls has pulled people from Hillary, not Bernie. Biden's positions and history are much closer to Hillary's than to Bernie's. So, if he announces that he will not run, it's more likely that those voters who are now voting for him will switch back to choosing Hillary Clinton.

That's my read on it, anyhow.

For polls like the NH and IA polls, I've been adding Hillary's and Biden's numbers together as I consider those polls. If Biden doesn't declare his candidacy, that's what I think will happen. That would change the picture pretty dramatically, really.

Until Biden actually announces that he's running, he's not running, so I don't look at his polling numbers as a separate thing. I put them with Hillary's numbers. I could be wrong, but that's appropriate, I think, given who Biden and Clinton are, in a political sense.

[whatchamacallit]

6. Right, in other words

Among Clinton supporters, given the choice between Clinton and Biden, many prefer Biden. Meaning her support is soft.

[HooptieWagon]

7. Biden is on ice as the DNCs Plan B.

He will make an announcement if Hillary continues to plummet. Your suggestion that his support will go to Hillary if he doesn't enter the race is just a guess. The numbers seem to indicate it will be divided.

[aikoaiko]

8. thats not unreasonable, but if switching to Biden was a "not HRC" move, then some

or many may end up going to Bernie. Bernie's message more accessible now than it was 2 - 5 months ago.

[Gothmog]

10. Biden moving his decision back to early November means he is not running

The only way that Biden would run would be IF there was a meltdown or implosion with the Clinton campaign. I do not see this happening. November is too late to start a campaign against a well financed and seasoned campaign like the Clinton campaign but is soon enough to run against candidates who are not well financed and who are out of themainstream.

There is very little chance that Biden will get into the campaign at that late date just to split the establishment vote to help Sanders. That is not going to happen.

I do not expect there to be a Clinton campaign meltdown and I doubt that Biden will get into the race. That may well provide a bounce for the Clinton campaign