New Poll: Obama +5 in Nevada

[aaaaaa5a]

This is from (R)asumssen:


Obama 50
Romney 45


http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/nevada/election_2012_nevada_president

[jaysunb]

1. If Razz says it's +5 Dem, it's probably +10. :) nt

[aaaaaa5a]

2. If Obama carries the 2004 Kerry states...

all he needs is NM, NV, CO and IA to be President. He can actually lose NC, VA, FL, and OH and still have 272 electoral college votes.


New Mexico is solid blue. It is not a battle-ground state. NV leans blue. IA and CO slightly tilt blue. If we can hold these states, what happens everywhere else is irrelevant.

Thats why this poll is important.

[DCBob]

5. at least.

Ras almost always fudges on the key battleground states.

[WI_DEM]

3. and this is likely voters, too, so that is good.

[Ira]

4. Nate Silver on Rasmussen

Based on historical analysis, Nate Silver says that Rasmussen is one of the polls that have a “house effect” that always over estimates Romney support. If he is correct, the spread should be a few points north of 5%.

http://peanutgallerypolitical.blogspot.com/