CBS Nat'l Poll (Sans Biden) Clinton 56% Sanders 32% /With Biden-Clinton 46% Sanders 27% Biden 16%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Just days before the first Democratic candidate debate, Hillary Clinton is ahead of Bernie Sanders by 19 points in the Democratic race for the nomination nationally. Forty-six percent would vote for her. Her lead is similar to last month, but has narrowed since August. Potential candidate Vice President Joe Biden comes in third, with 16 percent, while the other candidates trail far behind.

2016 Democratic nomination for president
If Biden decides not to enter the race, Clinton's lead over Sanders widens. She would have 56 percent support, compared to 32 percent for Sanders.


http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-hillary-clinton-still-leads-democratic-race/

[Cali_Democrat]

1. So...Biden supporters prefer Hillary over Bernie.

No surprise.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. I don't think he's going to run...

Last edited Sun Oct 11, 2015, 03:48 PM - Edit history (2)

With the debates coming, now he can't announce for announce for another week lest he steal attention from the debates which will alienate everybody.


on edit-added comma after 'coming' for clarity.

[bvf]

8. What?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. Do I stutter?

eom

[hootinholler]

14. I'm not sure

he can't announce for announce for another week

I don't think it's quite a stutter, but it is a bit confusing.

Maybe I just need a hug. LOL

[DemocratSinceBirth]

20. Sure

Maybe I just need a hug. LOL

I can see why you would be in desperate need of a and that's why I am giving you a big internet

[bvf]

25. Yes.

Even after an edit.

Make that two edits.

Just admit it. You're lost.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

41. He is obviously isn't announcing today...He obviously isn't announcing tomorrow.

He obviously isn't announcing this week and overshadowing the debate he declined to participate in.

Soon enough it will be October 18th, Joe Biden will still not have announced, and this conversation will be moot.

[George II]

69. Generally when a candidate (potential) has something important to announce, they announce....

....that they'll announce it in X number of days/hours.

I guess that's the announce that he'll announce.

[enid602]

18. joe

He's waiting to see how Hill fairs. He was 'considering' a run to make sure there was a viable dem nominee given the severity of Hill's lambasting in the media and on the Hill.

[DCBob]

3. That's not what the Bernie Brigade has been telling us.

Good numbers for Hillary.

[Cali_Democrat]

4. They don't live in the real world.

They've been high-fiving each other acting like Bernie has already wrapped up the nomination and the general election.

Meanwhile the polls say something else entirely, but they think the polls are skewed.

[workinclasszero]

19. The talking point is now

....Wait till after the debate. All Americans will swoon at the feet of Bernie and realize what a bunch of idiots we all are.

[riversedge]

21. Chuckle.

[treestar]

52. Polls? Those are inaccurate now.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/21/opinion/sunday/whats-the-matter-with-polling.html?_r=1

Now that Bernie has decided to run, the entire concept is no longer any good!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251662866#post29

Another Bernie Revolution! He is unlike any candidate ever before, so this election is entirely different and all polls taken are inaccurate!

[Lucky Luciano]

62. Few of his supporters thought he would ever break out of single digit support.

He clearly has done a lot better than that.

I can't blame a Bernie supporter for their enthusiasm.

The Hillary supporters do seem arrogant and complacent though.

[George II]

73. I read somewhere here recently that Sanders is ahead in all 50 states, even though...

....not every state has even had a formal poll yet.

[orpupilofnature57]

5. MSM polls are the only polls where she isn't sliding steadily .

[hrmjustin]

6. What polls do you like to look at?

[Bobbie Jo]

11. This one!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=650529

[hrmjustin]

12. That thread is the gift that keeps on giving.

[orpupilofnature57]

33. And those aren't rigged figures . + 10000000000000000000000

[Bobbie Jo]

49. Exactly!

I voted 16 times!!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. What polls do you look at?

Thank you in advance.

[orpupilofnature57]

29. The ones backed up by parties without an axe to grind, MSM is a commercial for the 1% .

Your Welcomed .

[DemocratSinceBirth]

44. Here is a link to Huffington Post Poll Of Polls.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-democratic-primary


Are there any polls that meet your benchmark for objectivity?


Thank you in advance.

[kenn3d]

59. MSM Polls?

Huff Pollster National Democratic Nomination

Customized 1yr range (normal "Moderate" smoothing) with all Internet/IVR/AutoPhone polls removed and including Live Phone Polls only from the following MSM pollsters:

NBC/WSJ FOX Bloomberg CBS/Times ABC/Post Monmouth CBS McClatchy/Marist... (All rated A or B by 538.com). Which removes a lot of noise imo.

Clinton 42.9
Sanders 32.8
Spread 10.1
Note: The Oct 11th CBS poll which is the subject of this OP has not yet been aggregated into HuffPollster, and is therefore not included in the above chart. But the data from this latest CBS poll is unchanged since the previous CBS poll released 9/15. (C47/S27/B15)

FWIW (which isn't much really)

Anything can happen.

[orpupilofnature57]

76. Well 42 isn't 56 and CBS is MSM .

[kenn3d]

82. Indeed, CBS is MSM... but

Indeed, CBS is MSM... but
The current CBS poll (10/11) is not yet included in the HuffPollster aggregate charts.

The 42.9% data point is an average computed from all the composite MSM poll data over the prior 12 months.
The 56% data point is from the latest CBS Poll based on Biden NOT being included in the polling.

The chart posted downstream (http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251665427#post15) compares CBS poll data from 8/3 and 9/15, NOT the current CBS poll released today Sun Oct 11th.

I am a Sanders supporter, and I would agree that MSM coverage has an obvious bias against Bernie both in tone and time allotted to him. But I am not convinced that MSM polling is biased beyond its using the accepted method of relying on repeat calling of known responsive landline owners.

It is too early for these national polls to predict anything very meaningful about what may happen 5 or more months from now. If you're interested in following the minutiae of weekly fluctuations in the national polls, just watch the composite trend graphs and spreads. Don't be misled into thinking that any one poll (no matter how new or how poorly or excellently conducted) represents the state of the race at any point in time. The composite averages of many many many national polls can only gradually describe the contest in a very broadly averaged and generalized way that has little or nothing to do with the actual probabilities that your candidate can or will gather sufficient primary delegates to be nominated in the arduous state by state process that won't begin yet for months. The race for the nomination is not in any real way measured by this national polling. And the individual polls by themselves certainly do not indicate the current state of the race.

But...

Anything can happen. So support your candidate. GOTV!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. Do we have to do this again?

She is going to wallop them.

It is not going to be pretty.

[Bread and Circus]

17. It could go either way. We will just have to wait and see.

[orpupilofnature57]

38. One runs toward the truth, the other runs away, now who's who ?

He'll shine like a lantern .

[Art_from_Ark]

71. Go Bernie!

[leftofcool]

24. LMAO!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

27. You like apples

You like apples?

She's the one that's about get the can of whoop ass opened on her...


-Time Lord

Your boy in going to be the the hapless gentleman in the gray trunks:





How do you like them apples?

That happened in Vegas too, about two miles south on the Strip.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

50. And then you woke up.

How would you like your crow?
Roasted, baked, poached, seared or what?

Because you'll be eating that once Bernie comes out victorious.

Time_Lord

And then you woke up:


Oh, make sure you have a supply of:




around

[orpupilofnature57]

32. Only if you care about the way you look as opposed to the way you sound, it shouldn't be pretty .

[DemocratSinceBirth]

55. Was that a shot?

[retrowire]

46. point out when Hillary has done well in a debate. 2008 didn't fair well for her because of that. n/t

[DemocratSinceBirth]

53. Res ipsa loquitur

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/11/us/politics/in-debate-hillary-clinton-will-display-skills-honed-over-a-lifetime.html?_r=0

[retrowire]

56. I didn't really ask for speculation and hope. :/ n/t

[DemocratSinceBirth]

60. I will defer to the analysis of the NYT over that of a random internet poster, if you don't mind./nt

[retrowire]

75. trust MSM over the people all you want. n/t

[MineralMan]

57. I'll be very surprised if anyone gets more than a 5% poll bump.

Anyone who thinks Hillary Clinton will fluff these debates has a very short memory. I don't think they will change the polling numbers much at all, but I do think that Joe Biden will decide not to run and Clinton will get a big bump when he does that.

It could even be part of the overall strategy, but I can't be sure of that. We'll see.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

58. I take umbrage at the fact at folks who think Hillary is a door mat.

Anyone who thinks Hillary Clinton will fluff these debates has a very short memory

I take umbrage at the fact at folks who suggest Hillary is a door mat and I am not going to be shy about saying so.

[lunamagica]

77. This. I think everything you say here will happen.

I don't ever remember a debate giving a huge poll bump to a candidate. Not ever.

To think that debates cam make up a difference of 20, 30 points is just delusional.

[DCBob]

26. I think Hillary will come out ahead from the debates for a couple of reasons.

This will give her a great opportunity to clarify the nonsense swirling in the media regarding the fake email scandal. She will be very prepared and what she says will most likely satisfy many of her supporters who might be wavering. It also might bring back some who switched to Biden or Bernie. Bottom line I think her numbers go up a bit or at least stay steady... which is all she really needs at this point.

Secondly this will be Bernie's first big appearance before a national stage. Many have never seen or heard him before. I suspect many will be turned off by his gruff bulldog indignant style. I am sure the angry "pissed off" left will love it but they vast majority of voters are not angry or pissed off. They are definitely concerned and worried about the future but I think a calm experienced intelligent leader will likely be more reassuring to them than someone banging on a podium screaming how awful everything is.

[leftofcool]

35. My dog could beat Bachmann in a debate

[JaneyVee]

37. Sanders vs. Bachmann??? I'm not even sure he won that debate.

[DCBob]

72. LOL.. that's hardly a debate.

[lunamagica]

78. Sanders vs Bachman?

[BooScout]

89. Funny you should mention that 'debate'

BS didn't do so hot against her.

[BernieFan57]

15. Since the last CBS Poll? HRC down 11 points, Sanders up 10 points.

Huffpost Pollster shows an August CBS poll and the one you cite, no others.

[DCBob]

30. Welcome BernieFan.

It would be good to show the dates and parameters when you post a customized chart like that.

Thanks.

[BernieFan57]

42. Thanks. Go to huffpost and uncheck all the polls except for CBS.

That's all I did, and I mentioned the month at least. It was August 2, 2015 I think, and Sept 9, 2015.

The screencap generator at the site doesn't include the time line on the x-axis or other data.

Here's the link:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-democratic-primary#!estimate=custom&hiddenpollsters=ipsosreuters,morning-consult,yougoveconomist,zogby-internet,nbcsurveymonkey,zogby-internet-university-of-akron,lincoln-park-strategies-d,robert-morris-university,saint-leo-university,yougov,fairleigh-dickinson,ibdtipp,suffolkusa-today,nbcwsj,fox,bloombergselzer,quinnipiac,cnn,abcpost,monmouth-university,mcclatchymarist,reasonrupe,ppp-d,gravis-marketingone-america-news,emerson-college-polling-society,rasmussen,ppp-d

[DCBob]

67. There are only two polls on your graph.

I unchecked polling average to just show the actual polls and it show only two (see below).. not really useful.

[JaneyVee]

40. Now add Bidens numbers to HRC and then post the graph.

[BernieFan57]

43. I already did. Biden is that purple line beneath the Sanders line.

Here's the raw link that generated the screen cap:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-democratic-primary#!estimate=custom&hiddenpollsters=ipsosreuters,morning-consult,yougoveconomist,zogby-internet,nbcsurveymonkey,zogby-internet-university-of-akron,lincoln-park-strategies-d,robert-morris-university,saint-leo-university,yougov,fairleigh-dickinson,ibdtipp,suffolkusa-today,nbcwsj,fox,bloombergselzer,quinnipiac,cnn,abcpost,monmouth-university,mcclatchymarist,reasonrupe,ppp-d,gravis-marketingone-america-news,emerson-college-polling-society,rasmussen,ppp-d

[JaneyVee]

80. Then why is Biden still on your graph?

[BernieFan57]

81. You lost me. First you ask where is Biden, then you ask why Biden is there.

And it's not "my graph"-- it's a Pollster generated graph showing only the CBS poll.

The option doesn't exist to exclude Biden. If the CBS poll included him then it's going to be included in the data and the graphics.

[JaneyVee]

83. Reread my post. I asked no such thing.

I said take Biden away, add his numbers to Hillary, then post the graph.

[BernieFan57]

84. Oh, I see, you want me to change all of Biden's votes into Clinton votes?

I'm sorry, I can't do that-- that's not valid or legitimate, you just don't change other people's votes in a survey to suit your agenda or preferred outcome.

[JaneyVee]

85. Yet you post a poll including a non-candidate to make some sort of point.

[DCBob]

87. He's a newbie.. give him a break.

[ram2008]

16. Tuesday will be make or break day for everyone

The Numbers will definitely change.

[riversedge]

23. good numbers going into the debate.

[oasis]

34. No stopping her now. Hillary express coming through.

[leftofcool]

36. Ready for Hillary 2016!

[SoapBox]

39. Just wait until she finally gets her face in front of cameras for millions to see...

Since she's been virtually hiding out in the private loaner jet, attending dinners with billionaires at $2700 a plate or doing her "conversations" with small groups on an "invitation only" basis.

MILLIONS will be reminded why they are over 30+ years of the Clintons and Hillary being in our face...try as she might, DWS can stack the audience, hide the debates on weekends and let CNN pick who they want for a panel BUT Hill has to finally get in front of the cameras...FINALLY.

She's gonna drop like a rock.

..................

http://www.nationofchange.org/2015/10/10/candidate-scorecard-sanders-leads-populism-drives-debate/

"On the other hand, she has not yet chosen to challenge many of the ways this economy is rigged against working people. She opposes breaking up the big banks, a new Glass-Steagall Act that would separate Wall Street’s casino from federally guaranteed deposits, and a true financial transactions tax. She has not embraced expanded Social Security benefits or Medicare for All, the necessary next battle in health care reform. She doesn’t call for taxing investment income at same rates as the income from work, or for taxing multinationals at same rates as domestic small businesses by repealing the deferral of taxes on income earned abroad which gives multinationals incentives to shift jobs or report profits abroad (with an estimated $2 trillion now nominally stashed abroad to evade taxes). She’s not advocated new higher tax rates on millionaires and billionaires, and thus is vague about the scale of her public investment agenda."

[retrowire]

48. ^this^

I love how a few posts up, we Bernie supporters were told we don't live in the real world and all we do is high five each other.

The obvious is all around you, in the real world. Get out of the bubble. Talk to people other than those online and your close friends.

[Logical]

45. If Hillary is the nominee at least I won't have to worry about donating money to her. nt

[magical thyme]

47. So Clinton is down fom 47 to 46; Sanders holding steady at 27 with Biden in

and Clinton down from 58 to 56; Sanders up from 27 to 28 with Biden left out.
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/hillary-clintons-lead-over-bernie-sanders-cut-by-half-in-national-poll/

Statistically essentially the same as a month ago, trend flattening but not surprising given the nature of the time frame.

I expect more dramatic changes to resume -- either trends resuming or reversed -- with so many upcoming events.

[retrowire]

51. It's all about those trends.

And after this debate, Bernie's going to get a nice spike in support.

Hillary, more of a dip.

People need to stop clinging to individual numbers and look at the numbers as a whole, watch the trends. Numbers like to rubber band around. The statistics climb for Bernie, they drop for Hillary. Clear as day.

[PatrickforO]

54. It will be very interesting to me what happens after the debate on Tue night.

I am thinking Bernie will come out on top and give viewers a real education on issues instead of MSM talking points. Let's hope so.

[Plucketeer]

61. Polls trolls

I don't think we're getting the truth anymore. I think that's why record crowds are turning up wherever Sanders speaks. They want to familiarize themselves with what the truth really sounds like. They wanna know how to differentiate the sound of truth vs the squeak of a weathervane. Either that or those different towns and states have one hell of an excess of movie extras that the Sanders campaign hires for effect - ala Trump.

I sure hope it's illuminated as to just who it is that's financing HRC's run for corporate lackey.

[stonecutter357]

63. K&R!

[stonecutter357]

64. K&R!

[lib87]

65. The Debates Will be Interesting.

The numbers will shift somewhat but not flip. I look forward to watching and seeing how HC & BS debate each other.

I will have my popcorn ready to read the more outrageous comments on DU after the debate.

[jfern]

66. This poll has Hillary with a 33% favorable, 53% unfavorable election

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/10/11/1430703/-Hillary-Clinton-s-favorability-rating-33-53-among-general-public-in-new-CBS-News-poll

You only nominate someone with a negative -20 net favorable rating if you want to be sure to lose the general election.

[Prism]

68. This seems to jive with the common thought that Biden is drawing 2/3 from Clinton

And 1/3 from Sanders.

Clinton gains 10 pts without Biden, Sanders 5.

We've been hearing that 2/3 number for awhile, and it keeps holding up in polling.

I'd really like if they'd just stop polling Biden.

[SleeplessinSoCal]

70. The debates should settle some dust.

Anyone wondering about Sanders, and others like O'Malley, will get a sense of whether they want to spread the "love" around.

[johnson_z]

74. Things will change quickly

This poll is with out any (official) campaigning by the Vice President, I think if (when) Biden throws his hat in the ring, these numbers will change.

This is of course my utterly biased opinion, with just a little bit of wishful thinking mixed in.

[lunamagica]

79. K&R. Go Hillary!

[AtomicKitten]

90. In virtually every single national poll, she's under 50%.

link: http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-democratic-primary

[AtomicKitten]

93. I just did.

And as you can see, he's above 35%.