At least for a little bit, Clinton and Biden are 1st & 2nd most likely candidates to be president

[Godhumor]

http://www.predictwise.com/politics/2016president

It will change soon enough, I am sure, but predictive markets currently think two Democrats are more likely to be president than any Republican.

2016 GE Winner:

Clinton 42%
Biden 12%
Bush 11%
Rubio 10%
Sanders 7%

First time this campaign two Democrats have been at the top of the list. Of course, with how fast predictive markets move, Bush or Rubio could quite possibly tie or inch past him before this thread sinks. But for right now, it is nice to see.

[JaneyVee]

1. How accurate is this?

What is their record?

[Godhumor]

2. It is an aggregation site of predictive markets

Like the old intrade from past elections. Basically, it tells you in real-time where investors are spending their money.

It can fluctuate a bit as people buy and sell, but predictive markets tend to be smoother than polls.

As far as accuracy goes, it is more a measure about the likelihood of something happening than level of support. Sanders 25% polling average has translated into about a 7% chance of him actually becoming president by investors.

I find predictive markets fascinating. You can very easily spend time each day on Predictwise to see how investors react to news and current events.

[BernieFan57]

4. Like Intrade, you say? Like this? Look at what happened at this time 8 years ago....

See what happened?

[Godhumor]

5. Yes? That is what predictive markets do

Not sure what point you're trying to show here, as investors moved to Obama as he strengthened his hold on the nomination; as they should.

In this case investors have been consistently high on Clinton and have moved to Biden as being the most likely to become nominee if she falters. He would be higher, but there is a reluctance to buy into him too much in case he doesn't declare.

[zappaman]

3. O'Malley might sway if he does well in the debates.

Who knows?

[rsmith6621]

6. Thanks for sharing.....

....Your dream.... Clinton is in email trouble and Biden is waiting in the wings for it to blow up on her.

Never heard of that survey site.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. Thank you for the link./nt