Poll: Clinton opens huge leads in NV=Clinton 50, Sanders 34--& SC

[riversedge]

Reported just now on CNN



Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is opening a wide lead in the democratic presidential race in Nevada and South Carolina, a new CNN/ORC poll shows.cnn.com 00:55 8 mins ago

[quickesst]

1. Nice way to start a morning

[FarPoint]

2. Hillary always rises to the occasion.

[quickesst]

3. Good one!

Right back at ya!

[Rybak187]

4. What are the trend lines of the polls?

[Dramato]

5. The 16% in Nevada seems weak to me considering...

The high Latino population there.
And with several months to go Sanders may catch up .

[Fast Walker 52]

18. yes, doesn't seem that big of a lead at this point.

[mak3cats]

8. I have a spreadsheet that I've kept since July...

...with data from RealClearPolitics.

For Nevada and South Carolina (tables include the date the poll was issued, the state, the pollster, and HRC's points over Sanders)

07/16/15 NV PPP +37
10/12/15 NV CNN/ORC +16


08/03/15 SC Gravis +70
09/08/15 SC PPP +30
09/13/15 SC CBS/YouGov +23
10/01/15 SC Gravis +31
10/12/15 SC CNN/ORC +25

[Dramato]

10. Do those Gravis polls include Biden.?

[mak3cats]

13. Yes, both of them...

Here's the link to my data source:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/sc/south_carolina_democratic_presidential_primary-4167.html#polls

(I only started keeping track in July, but the data goes further back than that.)

[Dramato]

15. The only recent Likely Voters poll is CBS, where she led by 23% in September

The lead is now 25%.

Likely voters sample reduce Hillary 's lead as it contains more white voters than RV.

The CNN poll is LV sample.

[HerbChestnut]

6. That...doesn't seem so huge?

16% is not that much to overcome in one state.

[magical thyme]

7. +16 is actually smaller lead than her current national lead.

And without a prior poll to compare, we have no way of knowing if her lead has shrunk (although nationally she was mid-60s a few months ago) or grown.

The media's use of the word "open" in this situation is also rather misleading, since that would imply her lead was smaller or nonexistant in the past.

[Ed Suspicious]

11. Yes. It's a shitty headline that confuses the issue, but it allows them to report on something.

It's so obnoxious to me that the job of the media should be to shed light on issues, but instead they obfuscate in order to inflate their own importance.

[Babel_17]

23. Should of just reported on the increase in the chocolate ration

It's up to 25 grams now!

[frylock]

48. ++

[Babel_17]

49. doubleplusgood? Well played!

[stonecutter357]

9. K&R!

[hrmjustin]

12. Hillary will prevail!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. Thank you for the link./nt

[Reter]

16. Even her symbol sucks

It's an arrow pointing to the right. Fitting.

[SoapBox]

17. Polls don't matter!

That's what we've been told as a mantra!

Just wait till she plummets after Tuesday.

[workinclasszero]

19. Clinton opens huge lead....

I like the sound of that!

[KingCharlemagne]

24. Only bc u havent been paying attention. HRC hasn't 'opened' anything. The truth is that

her lead has shrunk, continues to shrink and will keep on shrinking once Sanders gets national media exposure.

IOW, you and other HRC supporters are whistling past the graveyard.

What did Marx say about history repeating itself?

[workinclasszero]

26. You Bernie fans just keep on unskewing the real polls

its all good.

Keep up the good work and yes history will repeat itself!

[MineralMan]

20. Nevada sends 39 delegates to the Democratic

National convention. South Carolina sends 57.

New Hampshire sends 32 and Iowa sends 54.

All of those states make up the earliest primaries. When thinking about primaries, it's important to consider delegate counts and compare them.

Here's a great site that lets you do that:

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/D

Scroll down a little and click on any state that interests you to find out when it's primaries happen and how many delegates come from that state.

[riversedge]

22. Thanks. MM Good information

[MineralMan]

25. My pleasure. I like information much better than

people's opinions when it comes to election information. It helps me get the facts I need to figure out my own opinion. I'm funny that way.

[riversedge]

35. Chuckle. I try to be 'funny' that way. no patience is

my primary problem many times. Have a good day. Windy over here across the St Croix Lots of leaves to rake at mom's house but thought I would wait to see if lots would blow into the neighbors lot. It is his oak tree anyway. te he.

[MineralMan]

44. The wind's going nuts over here, too.

My neighbor's elm tree will get stripped of leaves today, and they're all blowing into my yard. Our huge silver maple won't drop its leaves until sometime in November, so I'll be mowing and mulching leaves several times before the first big snow. Yuck!

I love having a huge shade tree, but pretty much hate dealing with the leaves. A mulching mower, though, makes the job a little easier and saves on fertilizer, too.

[MADem]

52. A mulching mower is effective in those situations....!

There's this option, too, as well:

[center]
'He who rakes LAST,

Rakes LEAST.'[/center]


Words to live by!!!

[MineralMan]

53. A rule to live by.

[Jim Lane]

41. Some of the same state-by-state information in map form

The map at http://www.electoral-vote.com/ shows each state's electoral votes and is color-coded to show approximately when the delegates are chosen. You can mouse over a state to get more information.

I like the Greenpapers site you linked to for its greater level of detail, such as the breakdown of each state's delegation to each convention. The electoral-vote map, though, makes the basic information more accessible, and having everything in one map gives you a visual representation of the chronological march through the nomination process.

[MineralMan]

43. Thanks. That's a good link, too.

It's good to have different ways to look at information.

[Romulox]

21. That's a massively negative trend-line from previous polls. D'oh! nt

[DCBob]

28. Previous polls from Nevada are ancient.

The last one was in July. Anything older than a couple of months is meaningless.

Also without Biden, Hillary's lead is big.. and in SC her lead is huge no matter what.

Bernie is toast once we get past East Sanderstan (aka NH).

[riversedge]

36. Had a good chuckle over your....

....East Sanderstan (aka NH).

[DCBob]

45. Glad you liked that..

I suspect the Bernie bunch don't.

[loudsue]

27. CNN really seems to be push-polling Clinton big time.

Of course, they are also effectively eliminating Bernie from the news altogether.

[BernieFan57]

30. They should be disqualified from hosting the first debate. Any debate.

Where's the league of women voters when we need them?

CNN ain't legit.

[riversedge]

37. Didn't they get out of the debate monitoring business?? a few years back??

[BernieFan57]

40. ~~League Refuses to "Help Perpetrate a Fraud"~~

The two parties pushed them out. As I've suggested in the past, the corporations that own the media and own so many elected officials love this.

League Refuses to "Help Perpetrate a Fraud"
10/03/1988 | by LWV
NEWS RELEASE
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE:
October 3, 1988

LEAGUE REFUSES TO "HELP PERPETRATE A FRAUD"

WITHDRAWS SUPPORT FROM FINAL PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE

WASHINGTON, DC —"The League of Women Voters is withdrawing its sponsorship of the presidential debate scheduled for mid-October because the demands of the two campaign organizations would perpetrate a fraud on the American voter," League President Nancy M. Neuman said today.

"It has become clear to us that the candidates' organizations aim to add debates to their list of campaign-trail charades devoid of substance, spontaneity and honest answers to tough questions," Neuman said. "The League has no intention of becoming an accessory to the hoodwinking of the American public."

Neuman said that the campaigns presented the League with their debate agreement on
September 28, two weeks before the scheduled debate. The campaigns' agreement was negotiated "behind closed doors" and vas presented to the League as "a done deal," she said, its 16 pages of conditions not subject to negotiation.

Most objectionable to the League, Neuman said, were conditions in the agreement that gave the campaigns unprecedented control over the proceedings. Neuman called "outrageous" the campaigns' demands that they control the selection of questioners, the composition of the audience, hall access for the press and other issues.

"The campaigns' agreement is a closed-door masterpiece," Neuman said. "Never in the history of the League of Women Voters have two candidates' organizations come to us with such stringent, unyielding and self-serving demands."

http://lwv.org/press-releases/league-refuses-help-perpetrate-fraud

[riversedge]

46. ah yes. so soon I forget. Thanks for this. Much appreciated. It is a shame that the

League no longer does the debates.

[loudsue]

50. Good grief! I never heard about that, and had wondered what happened to them.

This needs to be widely publicized. damn that pisses me off.

[DaveT]

29. Crowing about polls more than a year before an election

is pretty silly.


I'm a Sanders supporter, and I confess that other Bernie fans also crow about poll results that mean almost nothing.


On the other hand, using the actual data from a poll to debunk either the headline over it or the spin being put on it is not silly, but necessary for understanding several other things than who is going to win. Sanders supporters have been using the fact that Bernie is gaining strength -- on the whole -- to debunk the Clinton Narrative of Invincibility.

Back on the first hand, Hillary still has a national lead.

On neither hand, the fact is no one is going to vote for months.

At this point, I don't see how anybody can say we do not have a contest with the outcome in doubt. Is there anything wrong with that? Unless your own favored narrative is that the other guy doesn't stand a chance.

[LettuceSea]

31. Unless you're the front runner, I wouldn't spend a dime in Nevada

That state goes to the front runner, unless you pay Steve Wynn a lot of money

I love how they vote in the casinos. That seems legit.

[rjsquirrel]

32. HUGE! YUUUUGE!!!! STUPENDOUS!!!! THE BEST!!!

16 points you say?

Inevitability ain't what it used to be.

[William769]

33. Kick & recommended.

[Live and Learn]

34. Enjoy it while you can. nt

[riversedge]

38. Should Biden decide to sit out the race for the presidency, Clinton's lead grows in both states.....

Thank you.



.............Should Biden decide to sit out the race for the presidency, Clinton's lead grows in both states. In South Carolina, a Biden-free race currently stands at 70% Clinton to 20% Sanders with O'Malley holding at 3%, and in Nevada, Clinton gains 8 points to 58%, while Sanders picks up just 2 points and would stand at 36%.

In South Carolina, Clinton's advantages stem largely from Sanders' unpopularity with black voters, who made up a majority of Democratic primary voters in the state in 2008, the last time there was a competitive Democratic primary. Back then, black voters broke 78% for Barack Obama to 19% for Clinton.

In the new poll, 59% of black voters say they back Clinton, 27% say Biden and just 4% for Sanders. Among white voters, Sanders has the edge, 44% to 31% for Clinton and 22% for Biden. Without Biden in the race, it's a near-even split among whites, 48% Clinton to 47% Sanders, while blacks break 84% to Clinton and just 7% would back Sanders.
Bernie Sanders' political career


These two states, along with Iowa and New Hampshire, are the only ones permitted by both major parties to hold primaries or caucuses in February, and the outcome of the contests in these early states can make or break a presidential campaign.

[pinebox]

39. More like a huge drop

from the lead she had in July. As already stated in this thread, if anything, Bernie is catching her and considering it's in a state with a huge Hispanic population, is it any wonder why after remarks Hillary made recently?

Hillary Clinton: Unaccompanied Minors 'Should Be Sent Back'

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said Tuesday that unaccompanied minors who crossed the border illegally in a massive influx over recent months "should be sent back" to their native countries, but also that they should be reunited with their families -- which sometimes requires them to stay in the United States.

"They should be sent back as soon as it can be determined who responsible adults in their families are, because there are concerns about whether all of them should be sent back," the potential 2016 presidential candidate said in an interview with CNN's Christiane Amanpour. "But I think all of them who can be should be reunited with their families."
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/06/18/hillary-clinton-immigration_n_5507630.html

[frylock]

42. Clinton OPENED with huge leads in NV & SC

[HooptieWagon]

54. Sanders has closed the gap a lot.

Only 16% in NV several months out? That's def doable.

[DCBob]

47. I suspect the Hillary campaign is happy with those NV numbers.

Nevada might have been good state for Bernie since it has small African American population.

[pangaia]

51. I'm not worried.