Map - Why Romney picking Ryan makes it all but certain Obama will win

[Rochester]

In short, it will be well-nigh impossible for Romney to win Florida now. For all the Republicans' howling about death panels two years ago, it's now Romney, not Obama, who's tied to a candidate whose stated goal, killing Medicare, is throwing older voters to the wolves, tantamount to euthanizing them if they can't pay their own way. And without Florida, I can see no realistic way for Romney to win.

Consider: Indiana will probably flip back to red this time no matter what. Let's be very generous and say that Ryan could overturn Obama's current 5-7 point lead in Wisconsin and turn it red. We'll also posit that Ryan could put enough of a dent in Obama's base of yuppies in Colorado, Virginia, and North Carolina to flip those states red - doubtful, but plausible. What now? Ryan helps Romney not at all in New Mexico or Nevada, and might even force Romney to spend some of his finite resources defending senior-heavy Arizona.

I can now turn some more implausible states red - neighboring Iowa, blue-leaning New Hampshire and Ohio - and Obama still wins!



If, against all odds and lots of polls, he can pull off all of these contortions, Romney needs one more state. Which state? Minnesota? He's too far behind there, and Minnesotans are too sensible anyways. Michigan? If there's a shred of doubt there, Obama can shore up Michigan with four words: "I saved your job." Oregon or Pennsylvania? He'll be lucky not to completely embarrass himself there.

All we have to do is not get complacent, vote for Obama and enjoy four more years (oh, how sweet it will be to own that phrase after 2004!). And fill Congress with Democrats, too. And start building up some candidates to run in 2016 for the open seat - maybe against Ryan!

[CaliforniaPeggy]

1. I like how you think!

[Deep13]

2. We're leading in VA, OH, and NC too. nt

[Sugarcoated]

3. I don't think Romney will get Wisconsin or Colorado. Or Iowa or Ohio, either.

Romney's in a world of hurt.

[DonCoquixote]

4. stop assuming florida is safe

The gov is working very hard to steal that state, and it could land another GOP creep in the top. That map would read over 270 if Florida goes red.

[Kalidurga]

5. We need an "I care about your family" campaign...

That is what it is boiling down to. Ryan doesn't care about the elderly members of your family. Ryan doesn't care about the college aged members of your family. Ryan would remove the safety net from struggling families even though his family benefited from having one. Then something about Bain would fire your mom and dad so that you need a safety net. Cue the sentimental music and highlight the programs that show that Democrats care about families, show happy smiling families that don't have to worry about putting food on the table, that have a college student coming home for Christmas, and a family member getting the care he or she needs because of the ACA.

[Rowdyboy]

6. Your electoral analysis is spot-on. Plus it makes me feel even better about the Ryan pick....

Of course, everything is conditional on being able to overcome the insane blockades to voting the Rethugs have erected. I'm not at all sure that its possible but if any team could possibly lose to Obama its Rmoney\Ryan

[flamingdem]

7. Remember though that the Medicare cuts only impact born after 1955 folks n/t

[davidpdx]

8. I almost wish they had been stupid enough to go closer to 1952

And threaten people who were turning 60 this year because that would sink them even further.

[flamingdem]

9. I agree. I think we're forgetting how selfish humans can be..

say they are life long repukes.. if they don't get hit by Ryans cut off date they might secretly think, ehhh whatever, I got mine.