DC insiders think Bernie Sanders lost the debate. Here's why they might be wrong.

[babylonsister]

http://www.vox.com/2015/10/14/9530603/bernie-sanders-debate


DC insiders think Bernie Sanders lost the debate. Here's why they might be wrong.

Updated by Andrew Prokop on October 14, 2015, 12:10 p.m. ET @awprokop

snip//

But the debate wasn't just about party insiders or the views of pundits. And there are reasons to believe actual voters watching might come to very different conclusions than the professionals did. Consider the following.

1) After the first Republican debate in August, Marco Rubio was generally acclaimed as the winner. Practically no one in the media thought Ben Carson had won, because his performance seemed so stylistically unimpressive. Yet it was Carson who suddenly surged in the polls, up to second place, where he currently remains. DC insiders totally missed it.

2) Big majorities of post-debate focus groups conducted by CNN, Fox News, and Fusion all judged Bernie Sanders to be the winner. Now, focus groups are hardly scientific — the Fox News one after the first GOP debate thought Donald Trump had collapsed, yet he actually went up in the polls afterward. Still, it's interesting that all three came to the same conclusion.

3) Sanders has risen to second place in primary polls by repeating a few basic themes: He wants to challenge the power of the wealthy, to take on Wall Street and corporations, and to make America more like the social democratic Nordic countries. He hit those themes hard, and clearly, throughout the debate — in political parlance, he was "on message."

4) Political commentators like me have been covering Sanders for months, and his message is old hat to us at this point. So we give him no credit for repeating those basic themes that have made him so popular on the left, and focus instead on moments where something "new" happens, like his awkward handling of the gun issue.

5) But many voters haven't been following the race so closely. Beforehand, a third of Democrats said they didn't yet know enough about Sanders to have an opinion on him. Even many of those who did know about him likely hadn't been exposed to him all that much. So when Sanders makes the case at length for why he's a democratic socialist, many of these voters might not have heard that before — and might like it.

6) One of Sanders's most important moments in the debate — his defense of Clinton and criticism of the media over the email issue — was generally scored by pundits as a victory for Clinton. My colleague Ezra Klein, for instance, suggested it showed Sanders didn't have the instinct for the jugular that will be necessary to take down the frontrunner.

7) But to Democratic voters, it could also speak to Sanders's character, and mark him as a different kind of politician, who's not interested in negative campaigning. Indeed, Fox News's focus group wildly praised Sanders for this — it was their favorite moment in the entire debate.

8) Sanders won the most new Facebook followers, according to data from Crowdtangle. He added more than 35,000, increasing his following by 2 percent, to 1.69 million. Clinton added about 18,000, increasing her following by 1 percent, to 1.54 million.

9) Sanders also dominated in Google search traffic of the candidates who were onstage. Political scientist John Sides wisely cautions that we have no idea why people were searching for Sanders, and what they might have thought of the results. Still, one of the biggest challenges for a non-frontrunner is to capture the interest of the public — and Sanders clearly did that.

10) Overall, we won't know how or whether the debate moved the polls for some time. But over fifteen million people watched it — enough to make it easily the most-watched Democratic debate in history. And it's worth remembering that those millions of people might be impressed by very different things than DC insiders.

[Maedhros]

1. Nobody should make the mistake of assuming that DC insiders are being honest in their evaluation.

They have an agenda, and they are pursuing it.

[INdemo]

48. Ecactly

And I would not expect DC insiders to declare anything or anyone else but Hillary.
When she talked about going to Wall St and telling them to "cut it out" was the biggest line of Bull Shit I have ever heard from any candidate ever going back to 1952
I am going to give
more to Sanders and I wish Indiana was an early primary state

[demmiblue]

2. Interesting read. Thanks! n/t

[HassleCat]

3. Politics as warfare

Sanders' defense of Clinton in the face of the email non-scandal is a telling moment. He wants to elevate the level of the debate and stay on the issues. If the Democrats follow his lead, they will win by large margins next November. Voters are tired of endless attack ads, going negative, repeating rumor as fact, and all the rest.

[silenttigersong]

20. Sanders

also took an arrow out of Clinton's quiver.No doubt her campaign would use any comment about emails to align Bernie and his supporters with the GOP.

[magical thyme]

40. he also, as a side effect, weakened her

She hasn't been able to shut down the email controversy for months. Quite the opposite, her refusing to follow her advisor's advice, instead stonewalling and then her defensiveness have enabled it to drag on.

He shut it down in a couple sentences.

[jwirr]

29. As I watched his defense of Hillary the first thought that

came to mind was - This is why we like him. He did the right thing. He was authentic.

I will admit that I also liked Hillary's response to him. At that moment in the debate we were seeing the real people and not the practiced politicians.

[ejbr]

34. +1 n/t

[Snotcicles]

4. That is exactly why I will become unaffiliated after the primaries are over. edited

I already have a new DU handle picked out (if we ever get an amnesty like before).

[restorefreedom]

13. what do you mean by amnesty and new handle? nt

[Snotcicles]

15. Switching to a new username while keeping all your senority stats. They did it once before. nt

[restorefreedom]

16. forgive my ignorance on this,

but if someone wants to keep all their stats, why would they want to switch their username? I've been on du for a while but I just do the basics...post, reply and occasionally start a thread.

[Snotcicles]

18. Well, it's my opinion but although it has served me well I feel I have outgrown the one

I currently use. I have changed how I view political issues and the processes and the party's and would like my username to make a statement that reflects the change.

[restorefreedom]

23. ahhhh. one last question

if you dont mind.. so once a year, or once an election cycle, or whatever, du lets us pick a new handle?

ok two questions.. will we know its you? (or whoever)

thx in advance for the info and your patience!

[Snotcicles]

24. No it only happened once that I can remember and it was long ago, and I passed on it.

I think it was in 05. And you had the choice of declaring your aka or not. I would declare if I did it because I have nothing to run away from. I would just like a change, and it is all anonymous away. Do you have something new you would like to use also?

[Snotcicles]

26. I just looked at your profile, you were a member back than. You don't recall? nt

[restorefreedom]

31. i dont

i might have been more hit or miss back then

[restorefreedom]

30. hmmmmm.. i never thought about it until just now

i joined during the cheney regime when it felt like our freedoms, including even the freedom to choose our leaders fairly, were being obliterated, hence the name. i guess my concern now that i think about it is that almost every organization i run into that includes the word "freedom" usually is an antithetical freedom crushing wingnut group, so i might like something that reflects a true progressive persona, maybe something environmental. and like you, i would disclose my former identity, since i have "gotten to know" others here.

and fwiw, snotcicles and and underpants are my two fave handles on du...always makes me smile!

thanx for all the info

[Snotcicles]

32. Oh yeah I can see your point, It would be like having French or Fries to deal with. lol

There are others that remember the event because they responded back a short while ago when I brought it up.
Have a good evening.

[restorefreedom]

33. you too! nt

[chervilant]

5. Bernie is "on message"

EVERY time I see him -- and I use that absolute deliberately.

I remain hopeful, even though I know the corporate megs want Hillary.

[Metric System]

6. I found him to be weak on foreign policy. Income inequality is his passion and his area of knowledge

and that's about it. In other words, a single-issue candidate.

[Motown_Johnny]

7. Weak on foreign policy? You have got to be kidding!

He laid out a perfectly reasonable "doctrine" for his foreign policy and gave examples of military interventions that he had both voted for and against in the past. All were perfectly consistent. He was also right on every vote (unlike she who shall remain nameless).

His stance on a no fly zone in Syria also was consistent with his views and also, in my opinion, the correct choice.

Hillary called the Iranians her "enemies". WTF was that? If you think that statements like that make someone strong on foreign policy, maybe you should consider supporting Trump.

[HooptieWagon]

10. Hillarys big foreign policy test was Iraq War vote.

She failed miserably.

[floriduck]

25. To paraphrase Bernie, "The American people

don't care about your damn opinion."

[Todays_Illusion]

38. But Bernie had the wisdom to vote against the Iraq invasion. So what do you base that comment on?

specifically? Because his replies,while not shifting around and dissembling were direct and obviously his sincere opinion, not political talking points. I found both Hillary and O'Malley's "foreign affairs," comments to be mostly well used talking points.

[magical thyme]

41. Bernie lays out his position on the Iraq War Vote.

He gave the Dems everything they needed to vote against it. They ignored it.

Mr. Speaker, in the brief time I have, let me give five reasons why I am opposed to giving the President a blank check to launch a unilateral invasion and occupation of Iraq and why I will vote against this resolution.

One, I have not heard any estimates of how many young American men and women might die in such a war or how many tens of thousands of women and children in Iraq might also be killed. As a caring Nation, we should do everything we can to prevent the horrible suffering that a war will cause. War must be the last recourse in international relations, not the first.

Second, I am deeply concerned about the precedent that a unilateral invasion of Iraq could establish in terms of international law and the role of the United Nations. If President Bush believes that the U.S. can go to war at any time against any nation, what moral or legal objection could our government raise if another country chose to do the same thing?

Third, the United States is now involved in a very difficult war against international terrorism as we learned tragically on September 11. We are opposed by Osama bin Laden and religious fanatics who are prepared to engage in a kind of warfare that we have never experienced before. I agree with Brent Scowcroft, Republican former National Security Advisor for President George Bush, Sr., who stated, ``An attack on Iraq at this time would seriously jeopardize, if not destroy, the global counterterrorist campaign we have undertaken.''

Fourth, at a time when this country has a $6 trillion national debt and a growing deficit, we should be clear that a war and a long-term American occupation ofIraq could be extremely expensive.

Fifth, I am concerned about the problems of so-called unintended consequences. Who will govern Iraq when Saddam Hussein is removed and what role will the U.S. play in ensuing a civil war that could develop in that country? Will moderate governments in the region who have large Islamic fundamentalist populations be overthrown and replaced by extremists? Will the bloody conflict between Israel and the Palestinian Authority be exacerbated? And these are just a few of the questions that remain unanswered.

If a unilateral American invasion of Iraq is not the best approach, what should we do? In my view, the U.S. must work with the United Nations to make certain within clearly defined timelines that the U.N. inspectors are allowed to do their jobs. These inspectors should undertake an unfettered search for Iraqi weapons of mass destruction and destroy them when found, pursuant to past U.N. resolutions. If Iraq resists inspection and elimination of stockpiled weapons, we should stand ready to assist the U.N. in forcing compliance.

[WillyT]

8. HUGE K & R !!! - THANK YOU !!!

[HooptieWagon]

9. First honest pundit appraisal I've read.

Here on DU, were already familiar with the candidates, minds are largely made up. The debates aren't going to change that. But for millions of viewers, that was their introduction to Bernie. Indications are that many like what they see, but it will take some time to determine how much support he picks up, and how solid it is.

[Wellstone ruled]

11. After hearing and reading

all these critiques and comments coming out of D.C. based Pundits,did they watch or listen to the debates? Sure as hell tells you what the so called insiders in D.C. are saying or thinking. Most of these folks probably filed their so called reports form some Bar Room in Virginia. Just look at the verbiage and canned phrases,pretty much the same copy.

[JDPriestly]

46. My view also..

Here's why Bernie won.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251681349

[bumprstickr]

12. numbers 8 and 9 are significant to me.

Indicates an upsurge of interest and looking for info about Sanders.

very encouraging for the real alternative here.

[madfloridian]

14. My view...the nation met Bernie last night and had a favorable reaction. So he won.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/128062229

[bbgrunt]

17. He also won by standing toe to toe with the

front runner and showing that he has a definite presidential bearing.

[Thespian2]

19. K & R !!!!

I think the large audience will help get Bernie's message out to more voters...thus, Bernie wins...

[Fred Sanders]

21. Focus groups and on-line polling the Day After is the focus for some folks!? Interesting.......

[Vattel]

22. Plus Clinton was avoiding questions or being dishonest at several points in the debate.

Dishonest about TPP, dishonest about Snowden, refusing to address the inconsistency in calling herself a moderate and a progressive. She also made that embarrassing remark about telling Wall Street to cut it out. And her defense of the war in Libya was beyond pathetic.

[pangaia]

37. When she called herself a progressive I almost threw my keyboard at the monitor.

[monicaangela]

45. LOL!!!!

You too! I watched on TV, and had to switch to a different channel for a few minutes to regain my composure. Talk about misinformation. And, that comment about her going to Wall Street and telling them to knock it off made me realize just how stupid she thinks the electorate in this nation is. We need to give her a big surprise when we go to the polls to vote for the nominee in the Primary, we need to vote for Bernie Sanders and write in on the form Hillary Clinton, are you kidding? I'm too intelligent to vote for her.

[winter is coming]

50. When she said, "I take a back seat to no one..."

my spouse snorted and said, "You're not even in the car!"

[monicaangela]

43. Spot ON Vattel!!!!

You are correct, she bobbed and weaved, obfuscated and played the gender card every chance she got. She also swerved when the comment about nobody wanted to begin what many feels amounts to a terrible trend of electing family members to run this government. She was terrible to say the least when she claimed to be a progressive. She is a war hawk, more conservative than many republicans when it comes to the military, she's anti-immigrant, and would do absolutely nothing to stop the Oligarchs that have taken over our political system, and if left to continue under another Clinton administration will take the rest of the country as well.

[NCjack]

27. The folks who made the mess think Bernie is the wrong guy to continue making the mess. Well,

they are correct. Bernie is the "clean-up" guy.

[Uncle Joe]

28. Kicked and recommended.

Thanks for the thread, babylonsister.

[Todays_Illusion]

35. The voices of speakers/writers of DC insidersand those claiming to be DC insiders by the propaganda

are not in the business of informing, they are in the manipulation game only, they are committed to telling you what you must think about everything.

I find it personally offensive and

I no longer bother reading, or listening to what any of them say except to note what it is they are lying about each time.

[azurnoir]

36. No DC insiders want everyone else to think Hillary won

it's a propaganda technique keep saying it until........

[monicaangela]

39. Smile!!!!

D.C. insiders and the MSM would never, ever say Bernie Sanders won the debate. Bernie Sanders is opposed to everything these leeches are for. He wants to break up big banks, he wants to provide health care and education for the citizens of this nation, he wants to tackle racial injustice, he wants to re-instate Glass Steagall, he wants to get rid of citizens united, he wants to find a way to fix our terrible immigration system, he wants to in fewer words, do everything that would be the best things to do for this country, and that would get in the way of the Oligarchs...by the way, that's who the D.C. insiders and the MSM work for. I believe that is it in a nutshell. Thanks for your thoughtful comment, and yes, Bernie Sanders did win the debate without a doubt.

[Jack Rabbit]

42. When it come to measuring the pulse of the people, political insiders don't know anything

They still think we believe Reaganomics good thing, which is why New Democrats exist to be the Republican wing of the Democratic party.

We know when we've been sold out and by who. So stop the charade, already.

Unscrew the locks from the doors,
Unscrew the doors themselves from their jambs!

. . . . . . -- Walt Whitman, "Song of Myself" from Leaves of Grass

[OhZone]

44. Real non-freeped polls say Hillary won.

http://www.oann.com/dncdebate/

[JDPriestly]

47. Here is why Bernie won. http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251681349

Bernie created all the memorable moments -- and without putting anyone on the stage down.

I can't remember that much about what Hillary said.

I remember clearly what Bernie said on certain questions.

His comment about the "damn e-mails" showed that he is the kind of guy you want to have on your side. As George W. Bush boasted -- the guy you want to have a beer with.

Hillary is to high-class college for anyone to want to have a drink with her.

She can't help it. That's who she is.

Obama is a guy you would love to have as your neighbor. So is Bernie. That's why Bernie won the debate and will win in November 2016.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251681349

[babylonsister]

51. I've heard and seen a lot today, didn't get to see much of the debate, but I

thought Hillary was excellent. We are lucky we have two great candidates.

I recommend you watch what she said.

[JDPriestly]

52. I watched. She is not the candidate to enforce regulations on Wall Street.

She is not the candidate to raise the cap on Social Security payroll taxes.

She is not the candidate to really say no to the TPP and re-negotiate our trade agreements.

She speaks eloquently, but does not say much that is certain and concrete.

Se still speaks in generalities.

I do not trust her. It all sounds vaguely nice.

Contrast that with Bernie who says he ants free college for ALL students because today's college degree is like yesterday's high school degree and tells you how he is going to and who is going to pay for that.

Hillary is a nice person, but not a great candidate in my view.

She is not strong enough

As Bernie often points out, the Republicans and Hillary and many Democrats voted to fight the Iraq War, but they did not vote to fund that war.

And now they want the middle class and the poor to pay off the debt for that war.

No way. Hillary was a part of that mentality, a part of that decision.

[JDPriestly]

49. Bernie won. Here's why!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251681349