Emerson Poll: Hillary 68%, Sanders 20%,

[Cali_Democrat]

Boston (Oct. 19, 2015): A new poll shows former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton extending her lead over Senator Bernie Sanders by a margin of 68% to 20%. This sizable boost may indicate she is winning over would-be supporters of Vice President Joe Biden, who was included in a prior poll in September, but not the most recent one.

Support for Sanders has remained flat since September at 20%. Biden’s window of opportunity to join the race may be closing; when asked if he should run, 43% of respondents said no, compared to 32% who said he should.

Clinton’s bounce might also be attributed to last week’s Democratic debate. Fifty-seven percent (57%) of those surveyed watched the debate, with 36% saying Clinton won, 17% giving the nod to Sanders, and 40% saying they were undecided about the outcome.

Read more:

http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_cddd7fd9d4d442c78a11742340cea678.pdf

[Cali_Democrat]

3. Where are you reading that? nt

[Mass]

4. Sorry - different poll. This one does not say where it is.

May be national, though I was not aware Emerson was polling nationally.

[brooklynite]

6. The Mass Poll is 59/25; the national poll is 68/20

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. WoW

The Mass Poll is 59/25; the national poll is 68/20

That was one of the states handicappers were giving SBS a shot in.

I don't know why. HRC beat PBO there and he had the backing of Ted and Caroline Kennedy.

[uponit7771]

2. So Hillary is up in Sanders own stomping grounds?! Yeah

[MineralMan]

5. Those are the numbers I would expect from a poll with Biden not

included at this time. If Biden were included, her numbers would be around 50%, as they have been in other recent national polls. Those choosing Biden in polling are switching to Clinton almost entirely when his name is not included, again as should be expected.

It's too early to say that Sanders has peaked, though. If his numbers don't rise, however, in the upcoming weeks, then it may be that he has peaked. The most recent NH poll also looks like he may have peaked, with the leader now being Clinton.

If Biden enters the race, I think Sanders will drop to third place nationally, but Clinton still maintaining a strong lead in national polling.

Future debates, if they include Biden, may shift numbers around a bit. He's a likable speaker with a strong presence on stage, and that will work to his benefit, but will not work to Bernie Sander's benefit. With two strong debaters on stage, his rather random debating performance will stand out even more and will not help him where appearances are measured.

Either way, I think the momentum has shifted in the primaries at this point. That's still subject to change, of course.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. WoW

[Cali_Democrat]

9. Maybe because he hasn't declared. nt

[Cali_Democrat]

12. Perhaps as time goes on and he doesn't declare, they think it's pointless to include him

nt

[ColesCountyDem]

14. And you're pointing out a distinction without a difference. n/t

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. It's going to give her a bigger bump in the Huff Po aggregate poll

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-democratic-primary

[BainsBane]

16. The MSM-Science conspiracy continues

[DCBob]

17. Looks like Sander's "window of opportunity" is also closing.

I knew this was coming eventually.. just didn't think it would come this fast.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

20. Some of the bed wetters were saying she should abandon New Hampshire

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NH_102015.pdf

[DCBob]

22. Yeah, that was ridiculous.

No way she is giving up on any primary or caucus.

[NurseJackie]

18. Now, THAT'S what I'd call a "surge" …

… if you know what I mean.

[workinclasszero]

19. Wow this is a HUGE lead!

I am so happy for Hillary and the party as a whole. It looks like democrats are going to unite with her and defeat the evil republican party next year!

Oh and elect the first female President in US history as well!

[Robbins]

21. all this proves

is there is no place anymore for liberals In Democratic party.it is purely centrist party.

time to give up on democracy.

[SoapBox]

24. Corporatist Capitalists Are Welcome!

...exactly.

[SoapBox]

23. But, but, but...Polls don't matter!

We had that screeched at us for so long and now, all of a sudden...they matter.

Ya right.

[sheshe2]

25. KnR

Love those polls! Thanks for posting the results, Cali-Democrat.

[jfern]

26. 68%? Junk poll!

[SleeplessinSoCal]

27. seems to be an outlier. the media spin can work wonders.

I've no idea what the real numbers are. But I give Larry David's Bernie on SNL more credence than the debate with spin attached to it.

It has been reported that Tina Fey's Palin and Daryl Hammond's Gore had a real effect on how people voted.

[Roy Rolling]

28. Small sample

I am no expert, but a sampling of 390 people seems awfully small to extrapolate to an electorate of a hundred million.

Of course, 13 months out I am skeptical of any poll remaining intact until the election.

[RoccoR5955]

29. I wonder who funded the poll

Often times polls are funded by organizations that want a specific result. Thus, they word their questions in such a way that they get the vote that they want.
I simply don't trust ANY poll any more.

[ram2008]

30. Ouch

I say that as a Bernie supporter, lol.

[retrowire]

31. The David Poll says otherwise...

Bernie: 95%
Hillary: 0%
Biden: 5%

[litlbilly]

35. I would trust this poll as any other.

Just look at the UK and now Canada. After the election, and Bernie gets voted in, all those pollsters will just be scratching their heads and saying "what happened?" These are not ordinary times and the polls are old school. Funny how HRC's cronies and now saying. wow, we are crushing it. Pay no attention to them, hitting rec's with all their buddies just to keep these OP's on the board. Just wait and see, Bernie will get there and it will be the actual people that make it happen.

[kimbutgar]

32. Seems to be that the PTB are afraid of Bernie.

Polls are only there to influence us.

I would vote for either Bernie or Hillary in the general but in my primary I feel the Bern!

[Phlem]

33. So which is it?

Polls bad or Polls good. I guess it must depend on whether you candidate is losing or not huh.

[azurnoir]

34. Out of 390 to 403 people polled

The Emerson College Polling Society poll was conducted from Friday, October 16 through
Saturday, October 17. The polling sample for the Democratic and GOP primaries consisted
of 390 and 403 likely primary voters, respectively, with a margin of error of +/-4.9% and +/-
4.8%, margin of error and 783 registered general election voters with a +/-3.4%, and a 95%
confidence level. Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system.

http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_cddd7fd9d4d442c78a11742340cea678.pdf

[Persondem]

36. Awesome!! K&R nt

[Agschmid]

37. Kick.