My "make or break" moment predictions for Clinton, Sanders, and O'Malley
(I honestly don't understand Chafee's campaign at all so I'm leaving him out.)
1. Sanders must either win one of IA or NH, or be within 10 points of Clinton in both
2. O'Malley absolutely must break single digits in both NH and IA, and beat Sanders in both SC and NV
3. Clinton absolutely must not lose SC (now that Webb is out this isn't as much of an issue) or NV, and must win 3 of the first 4
The comparisons of Sanders's current campaign and Dean's 2004 campaign are IMO overstated, but there is one crucial similarity: if he delivers disappointing results in both Iowa and New Hampshire, he will have trouble. He needs to show his supporters that there are enough of them to actually have a chance here, and early poor showings could be very problematic.
Obviously, the most tenuous candidate (other than Chafee) is mine, so let me explain my thinking on his campaign:
O'Malley is, bluntly, banking on an implosion in one of the two bigger campaigns, but even before that he has to stay in the race long enough to exploit it should it happen. If there is a "Dean Scream" moment from Sanders, O'Malley is generally running to the left of Clinton, and so can take up the "I'm not Clinton" banner. On the other side, if Sanders succeeds in turning the race into a real race and makes Clinton's chances seem more dubious, O'Malley is also running generally to Sanders's right and can take up the "I'm not Sanders" banner. (Though I don't think Clinton's campaign could truly implode that way Sanders's could: this route would involve a fight most of the way to the convention.)
If O'Malley makes a surprising showing in IA ("surprising" meaning 12% or so) and in NH, and then beats Sanders in both SC and NV, suddenly he is the dark horse competitor, and a lot of the dynamics here change.
But, in both cases he will need to show viability in the early primaries. IA is absolutely crucial here -- if he does not break 10%, I unfortunately have trouble seeing how he can continue. In some sense Sanders's advantages in NH work to O'Malley's advantage in that, since all he has to do is, again, make a decent showing.
Then the fun begins, assuming he is still in the race: in both SC and NV O'Malley can at least conceivably beat Sanders -- and he has to do it in at least one of them, and if it's only one he needs to make it close in the other one. He absolutely has to make this a three-person race, and he only has through NV to do that.
Long-term thoughts: If Sanders continues his campaign through SC, he will probably slog on for a while. If he wins one of the first two states, he probably will; if he doesn't, it becomes more difficult.
Clinton, meanwhile, is actually probably not banking on Super Tuesday, because she tried that 8 years ago. A strong victory in both IA and NH would be huge for her, and like I said would make Sanders's campaign harder going forward. But most importantly: she absolutely cannot lose NV or SC. If she loses either then suddenly the institutional support will get more and more shaky.
Surprisingly, I've come to the conclusion that Sanders has the least to lose in the early matches. An absolute drubbing by Clinton in both IA and NH would be problematic, but if he's going for a slow burn focusing on the rust belt and midwest there's no particular reason for him to care about early losses as long as they are close, particularly if donations keep coming in.
So, those are my thoughts, at least: Clinton must take SC, NV, and at least one of IA and NH. Sanders needs to keep close in IA and NH, and can probably write off SC and NV more or less. O'Malley must break into double digits in both IA and NH, and must beat Sanders in both SC and NV.
And then comes Super Tuesday...
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