My House of Representatives prediction: Republicans will maintain control

[Marzupialis]

Some here believe the Democratic Party will take the House, apparently based on wishful thinking and nothing else. I don't hold that view, so I will issue my own prediction here. Let's see what Intrade, Realclearpolitics and Nate Silver predict.

Intrade, a very popular prediction market here (at least when it predicts good things for Obama regarding the Presidential election) has a probability of Republican control in November of 85%. Link

Realclearpolitics lists 183 seats as Democratic as of today, 229 Republican, and 23 are tossups. This is not good. Link

Nate Silver wants to be right no matter what happens, perhaps because he screwed up in 2010 and wants to be more cautious this time. This is why he recently posted this ambiguous article saying that

a) "In the House, by contrast, Republicans are reasonably clear favorites to maintain their majority"; and

b) "I might take Democrats’ side of the bet just on the general principle of long uncertainty early in a political cycle."

So Nate Silver's contradictory message in this useless non-analysis is that he is betting in favor of the party whose opponents have a "reasonably clear" chance of winning. If the Democrats flip the House Nate will be able to say, "I told you so. I said I took the Democrats' side of the bet!". If the Republicans maintain control, he will argue: "See, I told you so. I said Republicans were reasonably clear favorites!"

My firm conclusion: We're not gaining control of the House.

[Motown_Johnny]

1. We need to see how badly Ryand hurts the (R)s down ticket.

It is to soon to know.

[HopeHoops]

2. Sadly, that's my assessment too.

[Vogon_Glory]

3. The only polls that count are the ballots cast on Election Day

The only polls that count are the ballots cast on Election Day. Maybe the Democrats will retake the House and Nancy gets her gavel back, maybe the crooks, ideologues, obstructionists, and liars will remain in control of the House of Representatives. Either way, we must try to oust the villains.

I stronly urge progressives and centrists--and even moderate conservatives--to go vote for Democrats as soon as early voting and absentee voting starts. Voting ends when the polls close on Election Day.

[flamingdem]

4. Maybe all this nuttiness about R&R is to distract us from other electoral fights

that really matter.. we need congress back or Obama will face more obstruction

[jaysunb]

5. Well...if we say we "can't"

we probably "won't."

[LiberalFighter]

6. Focus on your district(s).