Can Martin O’Malley Pull Off an Upset?

[elleng]

'If you depend on cable TV news and the national media to know what’s happening in the presidential nominating contests, you think the big news from the Iowa Democratic Party’s Jefferson-Jackson Dinner was that Sen. Bernie Sanders focused his remarks on the records of Hillary and Bill Clinton. But if you watched the speeches on CSPAN, you might have a very different take: former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley could be the story coming out of the Iowa caucuses.

The Iowa Events Center was packed with supporters for all three campaigns, and anyone watching live on CSPAN saw raucous displays of enthusiasm for all three candidates. But there was one major difference. While the Sanders and Clinton campaigns paid for their supporters’ tickets, O’Malley supporters bought their own tickets. That bodes well for O’Malley in a state where voters have to be committed enough to a candidate to spend hours on a cold winter day at a caucus.

O’Malley doesn’t have to place first to “win” the Iowa caucuses. He needs to beat the expectations. In 1984 longshot candidate Gary Hart only garnered 16 percent of the caucus vote, but that was enough to unexpectedly come in second behind former Vice President, making Gary Hart the story coming out of Iowa and setting him up for an upset victory over Mondale in the New Hampshire primary.

Martin O’Malley knows this story. He was a young field organizer for Gary Hart’s 1984 campaign in both Iowa and New Hampshire. And it’s a story that could repeat itself in 2016.'

http://www.reardonreports.com/can-martin-omalley-pull-off-an-upset/

[MineralMan]

1. I doubt it very much,

but good luck. Seriously. Keep pushing.

[restorefreedom]

2. its anyones at this point

despite the corporate owned m$m's desire to crown hillary

i would be surprised if she gets the nom. i will not be surprised if om or bernie gets the nom.

[Boomer]

3. No. eom

[bigwillq]

4. Probably not

But I wouldn't mind if he did.

[sadoldgirl]

5. Only if for some reasons

HRC's popularity sinks dramatically.
Sorry,because I think that he deserves better.

[FSogol]

6. Yes. He's done it before. n/t

[cwydro]

7. I like him.

And I'm watching.

Once again I want to commend the O'Malley folks here for not acting out like the supporters of the other two candidates.

Thank you.

Many of us are paying attention.

[elleng]

9. Thank YOU, and I'm glad you're paying attention.

[Snotcicles]

8. It will take a miracle. nt (spelling edit)

[cwydro]

12. Perhaps. But I thought that about Obama too.

Stranger things have happened.

[jfern]

10. He's my second choice

And I hope that Bernie is the second choice of most O'Malley supporters.

[askew]

23. Bernie is this O'Malley supporter's second choice.

[zappaman]

11. Interesting.

It's certainly possible!

[Peacetrain]

13. Yes he can.. absolutely can

Most people do not understand how the Iowa caucuses work.. especially the Democratic caucuses .. the republicans are basically a straw poll..but the Democrats work hard.. and you have to reach viability to get a delegate... I have seen it in action.. when people start talking to each other.. and if your candidate of choice does not hit 15% of the people present..your candidate is out and you have a choice of leaving or joining a different candidates group.. and that is where the work begins..

And you have to be a Democrat to go to the caucus.. no independents or unaffiliated.. its for party delegates..

[elleng]

14. Thanks for the explanation, Peacetrain.

[one_voice]

15. I loved his speech..

Saturday night. My daughter watched too and really liked him.

Still wishing he got more tv time (talked about more often)--though I've seen him popping up more often; and that's a good thing.

[elleng]

17. Glad your daughter liked him.

He was just on Chris Hayes show, was on Morning Joe today, and hopefully more to come; I'm with you.

[elleng]

18. That won't happen, surely now now. Traction is growing.

[Agschmid]

25. Actually he is improving in the polls...

He also has a pretty lean campaign so I think he is in for a while. He will get even more visibility at the second debate now that two have dropped out.

[virtualobserver]

29. The most important detail is that there are only three people left

that will make a huge difference for him

[Agschmid]

30. Yup.

[book_worm]

19. maybe--if he received even 15-20% of the vote there would be

a lot of talk of how he did better than expected.

[Nedsdag]

20. Let me think about this.

Nope.

[Samantha]

21. Anything can happen in politics at any time

It is an extremely unpredictable arena.

Sam

[bigtree]

22. depends, I think, on Iowa

... and NH and Nevada.

[ismnotwasm]

24. It ain't over until it's over

He has an incredible amount going for him, and even though I'm a Hill supporter, I want to see more of him, hear more of him. He is exactly the kind of Democrat we need to help shape policy

[Agschmid]

26. Yup.

[CajunBlazer]

27. Why We Shouldn’t Give a Damn Who Wins the Iowa Caucuses

http://www.cajunscomments.com/why-we-shouldn…-iowa-caucuses/ ‎

[Fred Sanders]

28. Martin has accurately claimed he has jumped into a solid third place...seriously, folks need to give

the man a second look.

Been a while since I said it.....a younger, much less cranky version of Sanders?

[virtualobserver]

32. yeah, and less of a shouting weathervane than Hillary

"less cranky version of Sanders" harumph!

[moobu2]

31. No, but If Republicans and Bernie supporters tear down Hilly enough

I hope he does. There's no way in hell Bernie Sanders could ever get elected in the general.

[madville]

33. No

He has 0% chance of getting the nomination unless something crazy happens like Hillary drops out suddenly.

Right now I put it at about 80% for Hillaryand 20% for Bernie, and that's being generous to him.

[Koinos]

34. Despite the tough odds, I would not underestimate him.

[Attorney in Texas]

35. Even a 100-to-1 long-shot wins sometimes. If I was O'Malley, I'd go all-in on South Carolina.

It may be true that O'Malley doesn't need to win Iowa if he beats expectations, but expectations are that he will come in third, and I don't think he can come in better than third in Iowa. Same in New Hampshire. South Carolina is less clear. Among the pre-Super Tuesday states, South Carolina seems like O'Malley's best shot.

Hart '84 is a bad model. Besides the fact that Hart '84 didn't get the nomination, that was a crowded field and so a candidate with 16% could come in second. O'Malley would need to do at least twice as well as Hart '84 to have any realistic hope of coming in second in Iowa '16.

[Jim Lane]

36. Odds against, but that's what makes it an upset.

Eight years ago McCain's campaign for the Republican nomination was given up for dead. Polls at this point in the cycle generally had him in third or fourth place, behind Giuliani, Thompson, and sometimes Huckabee. Granted, he was averaging around 14%, a dismal showing but still better than O'Malley is now. On the other hand, McCain was better known, having been a Senator for many years and having run a credible national campaign eight years earlier. O'Malley still doesn't have that kind of name recognition and therefore has more room to increase his numbers.

The moral is that, when not one single actual vote has yet been cast, one should not be too confident in making predictions.

Besides the obvious O'Malley-catches-fire scenario, he also has some possibility to emerge as a compromise candidate, everybody's second choice. The Sanders supporters, thinking Clinton too conservative, can note that O'Malley is also running to her left (and, on gun issues, even to Sanders's left). The Clinton supporters, concerned about electability (Supreme Court!), can note that O'Malley is not a septuagenarian Jew with the word "socialist" on his CV; furthermore, the word "Governor" is on his CV, as it was for four of the last six Presidents.

As a practical matter, this scenario is very unlikely. It depends on both Clinton and Sanders failing to secure a delegate majority, with O'Malley doing well enough to be considered a credible option. That's quite a parley. But, if it happened, it sure would be an entertaining late spring and early summer!

[NurseJackie]

37. Realistically, he likely understands that he's running for VP, or …

… he wanted to establish himself now so that he can have a better showing in 2024 (running either as the incumbent VP, or as a strong challenger).

I like him just fine. He and Hillary are the only two Democratic candidates I will happily vote for in the general election. For the remaining one, I'll just hold my nose and vote for him anyway.

[lovemydog]

38. Yes.

American politics can change pretty quickly.

I'm sick of the in-fighting between Clinton and Sanders supporters. They are obviously different people with different backgrounds. But as to what they could actually accomplish as President, I think the differences are exaggerated by their 'true believer' supporters to the point of absurdity.

O'Malley will get more traction after the next debate. He is great on policy. He is well-liked by people who support both Clinton and Sanders but strongly dislike Sanders or Clinton.

He needs a fair shake. While I'm leaning toward Bernie in the primaries, I haven't completely made up my mind. I want to see much more of O'Malley. Also I really enjoy engaging in dialogue with O'Malley supporters.

[LostOne4Ever]

39. Sure he can

[font style="font-family:'Georgia','Baskerville Old Face','Helvetica',fantasy;" size=4 color=teal]I don't really think things really get started until like a week or two before the first primary.

I wish your candidate the best of luck[/font]