PPP: Romney +1 in Wisconsin

[TroyD]

Ryan helps Romney to small lead in Wisconsin

August 21, 2012

Raleigh, N.C. – The selection of Paul Ryan as his running mate has vaulted Mitt Romney into a small lead in Wisconsin, PPP’s newest poll of the state finds. He’s at 48% to 47% for Barack Obama. 50% of the state disapproves of Obama’s job performance, an increase from 48% in a poll conducted in July.

Those surveyed in Wisconsin also indicate that the percentage in favor of Paul Ryan has increased, now at 49%. The state appears to approve Mitt Romney’s choice for his Vice President running mate, Paul Ryan. When asked, 51% of those polled stated that if they were allowed to vote directly for Vice President, they would chose Paul Ryan.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_WI_082112.pdf

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

1. Oh, well. We knew this was a possibility. Time to get to work.

[Floyd_Gondolli]

2. Seems like Wisconsin is trending red

Based on 2010 mid terms and the disappointing results from the Walker recall. I'd love to hear some perspective from someone on the ground there as far as the current mood of the state.

Either way Wisconsin still seems very winnable for the President.

[WI_DEM]

5. Well, I phone bank and stuff here so I'll give you my perspective

1) The GOP is energized much more than the Dems--that is especially apparent after the Recall and now with a Wisconsinite on the ticket for the first time.

2) The GOP got the Senate candidate to go up against Tammy Baldwin that it wanted in old man Tommy Thompson.

3) Younger voters are not as energized this time. I recall in 2008 that we had lots of college students phone banking but this time it's mostly older people such as myself.

4) It's the economy, Stupid! Obama is the incumbent and even though the GOP has done much to hurt the economy, voters tend to take it out on the incumbent.

That said here is the other side:

1) Paul Ryan gave the ticket a boost but it's no more than a toss up in the state where the VP nominee is from--that is not encouraging for repubs.

2) Tammy Baldwin can make this a future vs. past election with Tommy Thompson who has grown increasingly grouchy and wealthy since leaving the governorship. He, too, won't release his taxes.

3) While younger voters are not as energized, PPP also doesn't poll cell phones which many younger voters have. I'm 48 and I don't even have a land line, so did PPP not get a lot of Obama supporters, maybe?

4) It is the economy, but on the other hand unemployment is lower in Wisconsin than it is nationally.

5) The top of the GOP ticket (Romney) is so unlikeable--this in itself gives Obama a boost.

Finally, we are going to have fight hard for Wisconsin, no doubt about it. I knew it when Ryan was announced that it wouldn't be a cake walk. But we can win the state.

[TroyD]

3. Can no longer be taken for granted

The Democrats need to start by running ads in the cities of Wisconsin, and particularly with women voters, linking Ryan to Akin.

They need to drive his numbers DOWN.

[WI_DEM]

4. One interesting thing is that younger voters could be undercounted, too...

since PPP doesn't call cell phones. Heck, I'm 48 and all I have is a cell phone, too. But it's true it is going to be a lot closer with Ryan on the ticket and we'll have a lot of work to do.

[woolldog]

8. Regardless,

PPP had Obama ahead by 6 points last month. Presumably their methodology didn't change over the last month and that bias (if it exists) is baked into all their polls.

So there's been a big Romney surge. I think that's undeniable.

[pansypoo53219]

6. bet temporary.

[Arkana]

7. This poll was horrendously weighted.

40% of respondents "somewhat conservative" or "very conservative".

What the hell, PPP?

[Drunken Irishman]

9. LOL ... yeah, sorry, not buying it.

PPP is generally a good polling outlet, but even they can be wrong and they're wrong here. But it won't stop the media from using this as evidence Ryan is helping. They'll never cite the polls that show Obama up (almost all Wisconsin polls), but they'll certainly show the one or two that show him down.

Even DU does this. It's weird.