PPP: MA Senate--Brown leads by five-points

[WI_DEM]

PPP isn't being a pillar of good news today...

PPP's newest poll on the Massachusetts Senate race finds Scott Brown opening up a 5 point lead, 49-44. This is the first time Brown has led in one of our polls since June of 2011. Our last poll, in June of this year, found a tie and the two before that had modest leads for Elizabeth Warren.

Brown continues to do well because of his personal popularity and because voters see him as different from the Republican Party as a whole. 53% of voters approve of the job he's doing to 36% who disapprove. Incumbents with those kinds of approval numbers generally don't lose. Brown's approval has improved a net 14 points from March when he was at +3 (45/42). Warren's numbers are headed in the other direction. On that poll her favorability was 46/33 and now it's 46/43- her negatives have risen 10 points over the last five months while her positives have remained unchanged.

Massachusetts voters see the GOP as a whole as being extreme- 56% think it's too conservative to only 27% who consider it to be 'about right.' But they don't feel that way about Brown- just 30% think he's too conservative to 54% who believe he's 'about right' ideologically. 30% of voters who think Brown's too conservative is less than the 41% who think that Warren is too liberal. Additionally 49% regard Brown more as someone who has been 'an independent voice for Massachusetts' compared to 38% who feel he's been more a 'partisan voice for the national Republican Party.'

Brown has the lead on Warren thanks to a 58-32 advantage with independents, comparable to what he won against Martha Coakley in 2010. He has Republicans strongly unified around him (91-7) and he's pulling a pretty decent amount of Democratic support, 20%, with just 73% of her party's voters committed to Warren at this point.

Things are going well for Brown right now but there's still one major data point in this poll that could spell trouble for him down the line. 53% of voters would like Democrats to have control of the next Senate, compared to 36% who want the Republicans in charge. Brown is winning in spite of that because only 76% of people who want a Democratic majority are currently planning to vote for Warren. If Democrats in the final 11 weeks of the campaign are effective turning it into a referendum on which party they'd like to have control of the Senate for the next two years, Warren might be able to get the race headed back in her direction.
The race remains close but Scott Brown is proving to be pretty resilient despite his state's heavily Democratic electorate.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/08/brown-leads-by-5-in-ma-sen-race.html

[AtomicKitten]

1. crapcrapcrapcrapcrap

[Cosmocat]

5. Yep

I would have imagined that a pretty strong D state would get behind someone like Warren - a bit of modern icon as a democrat.

I get his appeal on some level - the looks, the charm, the moderate type personality (in the context of republicans being complete lunatics at this point).

But, it is going to be VERY hard for Ds to hold the senate without Warren getting it done here.

Honestly, it seems she needs a Brown slip up of some kind at this point.

[AtomicKitten]

9. Elizabeth needs a progressive superpac to go hammer & tongs on Brown.

He's been very accommodating to the banks, trying to loosen regulations, etc.

No mercy.

[grantcart]

20. they have an agreement, no outside PAC money on both sides. Its a good agreement.

[AtomicKitten]

21. ack

[Cosmocat]

25. That's nice

The R with the advantage gets the D to tie one hand behind her back.

I can GUARANTEE there is not a race where the D is the incumbent with a viable R challenger that has agreed to not have special interest groups come in and hit the incumbent with negative ads.

[Arkana]

2. Four words: Wait till the debates.

[bigdarryl]

18. There are no debates Brown backed out

[Politicalboi]

3. The people who brought us Rmoney

Are pulling for Brown. I was born there, sure glad we moved in 1963. These same people who had the chance in 2002 to check Rmoney out, but didn't. They didn't care he may not have lived in Ma for 7 years. They didn't care about his taxes. Shame on Ma. How can Obama win Ma if Warren loses? Obama and Warren are pretty much the same on issues.

[BeyondGeography]

4. Ouch

[villager]

6. New book idea: "What's the matter with Massachussetts?"

n/t

[mim89]

7. ...

Damn.

[TroyD]

8. Brown is clobbering her with Independents

Unfortunately MA is just not the liberal, progressive state it likes to think it is. It has a large 'Independent' population that was willing to vote for Mitt Romney and Scott Brown, and which apparently is STILL supporting Scott Brown.

In many ways it has fallen behind CA & NY.

Brown has successfully convinced Independents in MA that he is a moderate, and that he is not really a Republican. Unless Warren can show how he is lying about that and demonstrate his pro-GOP and pro-Wall Street record, Warren is at risk of losing.

[mim89]

10. .

my sisters going to UMass in the fall, good thing I told her not to register in NJ, but to hold off for MA.

We're gonna need every vote, its sad we can't even count on MA anymore.

[karynnj]

11. Your comment brings up an interesting point

Last edited Tue Aug 21, 2012, 05:07 PM - Edit history (1)

The students have not yet arrived in MA, therefore any out of state students who plan to vote in MA are not counted.

In addition, I suspect that in the debates, Warren will use the same tactic Kerry used against Weld - that no matter how nice Brown is or how "bipartisan" he will vote for Mitch McConnell for majority leader.

In 1996, Weld, beloved by the Boston Globe, had a 70 percent approval rating - higher than Kerry's by a lot. Now, Brown is NOT Weld, who was both more liked and more moderate - so this should work the same way - even if Warren does not have Kerry's experience.

[pstokely]

24. But what state should an out of state student from a swing state vote in?

Or a student from a state like MO?

[mim89]

28. .

that depends on the distance from her home. I went to school in Philly so if NJ was a swing state, i couldve still gone back and voted but if it was farther I probably wouldn't have.

[karynnj]

36. Absentee is very easy for NJ kids

[karynnj]

35. If you want to be strategic the one where it seems to make the most impact

You are right that many students do opt to vote in their home state as my middle daughter did in 2008. Though NJ was not a swing state, there was more chance that Lautenberg and Obama would need a vote than Kerry and Obama would in MA. This year, she is not a college student, but will be starting a job in MA.

But, a NJ student at a MA school might be more likely to vote in MA. Obama is pretty safe in both (as he really was in 2008). Menendez is highly favored to win - where Warren/Brown should be close. I suspect that there are far more NJ kids in MA than MO kids.

[Larkspur]

12. Bad news, but Brown had retaken a lead a few months ago and lost it

so Brown isn't safe and Warren is concentrating right now on getting her ground game going.
I was in the small town of Southbridge, MA last week to meet her. The phone bank there was packed with volunteers. MA Dems are motivated for Warren. Brown has state DINO's backing him and they give him a facade of bipartisan support.

Course, very recently Brown came right out and attacked Atkin for his rape comments and demanded that he resign, but what the MA Dems and Warren have to show is that Brown accepts the Republican Party plank that bans abortion in ALL circumstances, including rape. Atkins got caught telling the public the truth about the Republican position on women's reproductive rights.

The debates and the TV ads after Labor Day will be decisive battles in this campaign.

FYI, I'm a CT Dem.

[graywarrior]

13. He's got those "home boy" ads all over tv here

But they're not even talking about the issues yet. Once that happens, he's got a fight on his hands. He hides behind his truck and macho jacket.

[mim89]

14. please tell me...

please tell me people aren't falling for that truck b.s. again.

The guy makes a lot of money now, he's never was and definitely isn't now a man of the people. Unless those people are super rich

[chelsea0011]

27. Males still are. He is up 20 points among them.

And that will be a tough group to make in roads with, even if she does well in the debates. And there are debates scheduled. There is another posts saying there aren't any because Brown pulled out of them. He only pulled out of the Kennedy Ctr. debate because Vickie Kennedy wouldn't agree to not pick a side in the election.

[crimson77]

40. That barn coat is honestly a stroke of genuis, It what it represents.

Literally every father who runs errands on saturday morning or takes his son to hockey practice at 6am on Sunday has that exact same jacket. I know it sounds silly but it makes hime relatable.

[Blaukraut]

15. As graywarrior said upthread, Brown's ads are strictly personality based

If I were not aware of his political affiliation and votes in the Senate, I'd think he's a really nice guy who is looking out for us. One of the Brown bumper stickers says: "Scott Brown. He is for us"
Elizabeth Warren hasn't quite caught on with the voters yet. Her ads have been largely issue and resume based, but if she were to run a few that introduce her as a person, it could go a long way towards voters thinking they know her and like her.

Finally, we need more attack ads by third parties listing Brown's votes and Wall Street cronyism. His favorability rating needs to get knocked down.

edited for spelling

[johnnyrocket]

16. WTF Mass? I hope Elizabeth steps it up.

[CTyankee]

17. Now Hear This: Scott Brown voted against the Paycheck Fairness bill in the Senate!

saying he support the idea but didn't want to lay it on the employers...huh?

[crimson77]

19. I was at the farmer's market today and I saw something odd

I live in deep deep blue Newton and at the entrance I saw as many Brown Sign holders as I did Warren holders. Now I have made my dislike of her pretty clear, an email box full of jury decisions would show that. I thought it was odd that a place he should have no shot is showing him any kind of support.

[cash__whatiwant]

23. why do you strongly dislike her? nt

[chelsea0011]

26. It is not difficult to get Brown sign holders to show up anywhere and,

why do you think wealthy Newton wouldn't have a large support group for Brown? I don't live in Newton but I assume he got a sizable vote in his last election without carrying the city. What was it...60-40 for Coakley?

[crimson77]

31. I wouldn't know where to get that info.

If Brown got 40% in Newton he would probably have been doing a touchdown dance. When I go to give my name at the ward desk to vote, I always take a peek to see party affiliation of my neighbors, not one R in my ward. That isn't to say there aren't any secret R's, they just register Unenrolled.

[karynnj]

37. 67 -32 for Coakley

Here is an interactive map that gives the results for towns. http://www.boston.com/news/special/politics/2010/senate/results.html

Here's the 2008 Senate race map - http://www.boston.com/news/politics/2008/election_results/ma_ussenate/
and the 2008 Presidential race - http://www.boston.com/news/politics/2008/election_results/ma_president/

It is cool - even for a non MA person like me who had only a vague idea where Newton was!

[Arkana]

29. Why do you dislike Elizabeth Warren?

[crimson77]

32. Back when...

the race first started to take shape, the Mayor of my town, a really good guy I have known since high school, Setti Warren jumped in, as did several others. When the state party started throwing Warren's name around, she made it clear that she would not compete in any kind of primary, essentially cutting of both cash and support of all the other people running. I don't like that, if he lost fair and square I would have been able to suport her, but now I just can't. I know it makes me look bitter, but I'll own it.

[RBInMaine]

34. If you are going to be on DU, you are required to support the Dem candidate via the rules. Also,

would you rather have Brown? There is a much bigger picture and much more at stake than anyone's bruised feelings. I would urge you to move on and support this excellent Dem candidate.

[RBInMaine]

22. She needs to ATTACK HIM BRUTALLY ON HIS VOTING RECORD AND TIE HIM TO THE NATIONAL GOP !!!

[quitnesset]

30. I am concerned for Warren

her ads are just too nice.. they do nothing to tie brown to the problems.. the fact that he is not independent, but voted with the republicans 78%, that he takes money from Wall Street, and Big Oil... she needs to ask if people believe he could really be on their side after taking millions of dollars from fat cat wall streeters.. all her ads tell folks how good she will be for MA.. we know that! She needs to tell voters the bad things that will happen if brown is elected - like possibly control of the Senate, and approval of Supreme Court nominations. Elizabeth needs to make people see he is just as bad as the rest of the Rethugs.

[RBInMaine]

33. Yup. She needs to attack him as the hack for Wall St. & the Koch Brothers he is & his VOTES.

[thevoiceofreason]

38. Wait a sec!

The biggest reason I was aware of for the new numbers was the switch in polling from Registered Voters to Likely Voters. Not apples to apples. She needs to keep doing what she is doing. If there is big turnout, she wins because the LV model really drops participation levels in our groups, especially young voters. And she has great appeal with youg voters.

It's the ground game, folks.

[mvd]

39. That is too bad. Still plenty of time

She is one of the few with bold solutions that work for the 99%. Remember, Brown himself came from behind. I really want to see her win this because if she loses, the myth that liberals can't win elections would spread. An incumbent will be harder to beat, but Warren can do it if she does negative advertising which highlights Brown's true record being mostly in support of the Evil budget. The Evil budget is what I call the Ryan and Romney one.