Rasmussen: McCaskill +10 in Missouri

[TroyD]

A genuine poll number, or an attempt by Rasmussen to push Akin out of the race?

MISSOURI [McCaskill +10]

McCaskill - 48

Akin - 38

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

[brooklynite]

1. How many people here were obsessing about Akin being "up" by 1 point in the PPP poll?

[former9thward]

16. PPP has shown itself to be without credibility.

They clearly manipulated their poll numbers to try and keep Akin in the race. If they do that once they will do it over and over. I would never trust their numbers again.

[TroyD]

17. What about Rasmussen?

How do we know Rasmussen isn't manipulating their numbers for the opposite reason today?

[former9thward]

18. Maybe they are.

Those are two polls to put on ignore.

[oregonMakr]

23. Rasmussen is a GOP poll trying to get Akin to bow out.

PPP is a Dem poll trying to keep Akin in the race.

[Marsala]

19. Yeah, I'd like to believe better of PPP, but that was a ridiculous sample

I suppose it was possible that they really found that many Republicans, but it was quite the convenient outlier.

[TroyD]

2. Can't see the cross-tabs yet

RCP lists the poll, but the link to the cross-tabs only works for those who subscribe.

[WI_DEM]

3. Who knows? It's a nice number but I still don't trust RAS.

[CabCurious]

36. I agree. If anything, this makes me distrust them even more

[Yavin4]

4. A 10 point lead is still depressing

Akin should not be getting ANY support whatsoever.

[TroyD]

5. We don't want the lead to be too big!

Otherwise he might withdraw!

[CabCurious]

37. It is way too late for another GOP person to step in with a chance

[alcibiades_mystery]

8. Perhaps, but this is a massive turn-around

McCaskill was sunk as recently as last Friday.

[stlsaxman]

6. that is a REALLY GOOD question...

i suspect it is the latter, as Rasmussen is the goto poll for FOX/NPR.

[jpbollma]

10. I Didn't Think He Could Withdraw at This Point

Won't his name now be on the ballot no matter what?

[leftynyc]

13. As I understand it,

he can ask for a court order to be dropped but he'll be handed the bill for re-printing the ballots (which any of the righty superpacs will be happy to pick up). I think Ras is a shitty poll and are likely trying to get him to leave the race.

[lastlib]

20. ...and the SOS would probably fight it.

meaning they'd be stuck with him til it's too late to get anybody else in Akin's place.

The practical truth is, they're stuck with Akin.

[FBaggins]

29. There wouldn't be much choice.

The statute says that the court must grant the request "freely" unless the opposition shows "good cause".

IOW, there's no burden on him to prove that he has an acceptable reason to drop out. We would have to demonstrate a reason why it shouldn't be allowed (not enough time to change the ballots, etc).

"I can beat him easily but might lose to someone else" isn't a good cause.

This kind of thing has been brought to the courts a number of times in the past - including past the statutory dates that would otherwise appear to be prima-facia good cause (often to our advantage).

No... our best hope in this race is that his ego is big enough to keep him from even caring what he might do to the rest of the party. Luckily... that looks to be true so far.

[alcibiades_mystery]

7. Ouch

[FBaggins]

9. I suspect both PPP and Ras were PWIP

"Polls With a Purpose". PPP trying to give Akin a reason to believe that he could still win (and thus not drop out by the easier date), and Ras trying to give him a reason to leave.

That having been said, this one is almost certainly closer to reality - though I don't expect it to be enough to cause him to jump... until she regularly tops 50%.

[Arkansas Granny]

11. I've seen polls and articles that indicate that he is losing ground.

I haven't seen any yet that show her to be ahead. That would be good news, if true.

[Arkana]

12. Ahahahahahaha wow.

If Ras can only get it within 10, she's probably up 12 or 13.

[TroyD]

14. Found some demographic break-downs

Women: 52-32 Claire.

Moderates: 63-18 Claire.

[TroyD]

15. More breakdowns

53% of GOP says Akin should withdraw.

Only 26% of Dems want him out.

[iloveObama12]

21. Damn!that quick?

[catbyte]

28. love that killer grin!

[flamingdem]

22. The will extract him with pliars

before the next deadline. That or a big wad 'o dough and a threat to his grandmother!

[lastlib]

30. ...an' a liddle talk wid "Guido an' a coupla boyz"....

[flamingdem]

31. You know that's going to happen if his poll numbers don't improve

what's in the balance is Dem control of the senate.. they want to harass Obama for another 4 years, ouch guido nooooo

[FBaggins]

32. They may have to bribe him.

Without, of course, making it look like a bribe.

Some well-paying corporate board appointments announced after the election.

[TroyD]

24. Obama rising in Missouri?

are Obama’s numbers in Missouri rising right along with McCaskill’s?


That’s what some people on Twitter are saying ABC news radio just reported.

[Robbins]

25. People

I am a missouri DU member.Before the comments there was poll that showed most of missouri races expect Governor's race where
our Dem Incumbent Jay Nixon who has clear lead to be dead heat.Republicans had 1 point lead for President,Senator,and LT
Governor.While our attorney General who ultimetly declined to take part In lawsuit against Obamacare has 3 point lead.

Survery USA's fishy senator poll was only poll to have clear lead for Akin.Rest had at best 1 -3 points.

Obama Isn't really contesting missouri.Here In kansas City I have seen ads while watching MSNBC on Taxes probally because the
Iowa media market bleds Into here.But,we have had 2 different polls that have Romney with only a 1 point lead a dead heat.That
Is amazing when you think about It.It says Dems In St Louis and Kansas City are behind Obama.With this state's history of
antimormanism If there Is hugh turn outs In Kansas City and St Louis City and Country and decent turnout In Columbia from proobama
people then a narrow win By Obama Is withen the realm of possibilty.

I have always said this senate race Isn't over as some have thought.2000,2002,and 2006 shows race can change.

Akin's comments about woman can help McCaskill just like stemcell research helped her In 2006.

Right now Claire Is working on youth vote In Missouri by running ads on Akin's comments that assistance to pay for collage Is like
stage 3 cancer.And If Rove stays out of missouri now and It's just Akin vs Mccaskill she can win.

[TroyD]

26. InTrade = McCaskill at 60%

Intrade now has McCaskill at 60% chance to win.

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=745948

[catbyte]

27. Whoopsie! no wonder the GOP establishment had a fit

Let's hope sanity & compassion continues to win out all the way to November 6 and beyond.

[Jennicut]

33. Do the people that conduct polls want to manipulate the voting process?

Of course. Therefore, McCaskill probably has a 4 to 5 point lead. Which is very good. She wanted Akin to be the one to run against her and she got it. I don't believe PPP or Rasmussen did very good polls however. Which makes me realize always take polls with a grain of salt. They give some insight into a race but not always the total picture.

[TroyD]

34. McCaskill just commented on the Rasmussen poll!

http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/mccaskill-shoots-down-rasmussen-poll

[FBaggins]

35. She needs to keep her mouth shut

The last thing we need is for her to make it so obvious that she desperately wants him to stay in the race.

[TroyD]

38. I think she's trying to send a message

to Rasmussen that she is not fooled by his poll suddenly showing her with a huge lead.

[Robbins]

39. McCaskill

Good for her to say that.She needs people to not believe the race Is over,and make Akin think he has a shot at winning.

One thing to remember she ha slargely keep her powder dry for the fall campagin.