Carville-Greenberg Memo: Early Warning: Ryan Medicare Plan Imperils Battleground Republicans

[flpoljunkie]

Emphasis mine.

Early Warning: Ryan Medicare Plan Imperils Battleground Republicans

August 22nd, 2012
written by: Erica Seifert

Even before Mitt Romney named Paul Ryan to the ticket, our Battleground polling results indicated an erosion of support for Republicans, largely based on Paul Ryan’s plans for Medicare and entitlements. The advantage Republicans held among seniors in 2010 has been completely decimated. Across these Republican districts, incumbents now hold just a two-point lead with voters over age 64—a group Republicans won by 18 points in 2010.

Not surprisingly, the leading factor in this shift away from the GOP is Paul Ryan’s war on Medicare. By a decisive six-point margin, voters in these districts now say they trust Democrats more than Republicans when it comes to Medicare. Among voters in the 27 most competitive Republican battleground seats, Democrats now hold an 11-point advantage on Medicare.

We are in the business of predictive politics, so you’ll forgive us if we pause for a moment to say… we warned them two years ago. Immediately following the 2010 election, we offered our analysis of the “shellacking” suffered by Democrats at the midterm ballot box. We acknowledged the wounding outcome but — after careful analysis of our own poll results — we saw a broader and more important message in the midterm: Democrats did not lose because voters wanted to move in the direction that Paul Ryan and the House Republicans have since tried to take the country.

Back then we wrote:

There is no evidence that this was an affirmative vote for Republicans. Their standing is no higher in this year’s post-election polls than it was in 2008 and 2006. There is a lot of evidence that voters do not share Republicans’ priorities, particularly on Social Security and Medicare, and voters did not mandate a consuming focus on spending cuts and deficit reduction…[the results do] not translate into a mandate for Republicans to slash spending… and squander the next two years trying to repeal health care.

more...

http://www.nationalmemo.com/carville-greenberg/early-warning-ryan-medicare-plan-imperils-battleground-republicans/

[enough]

1. Starting to hope this MIGHT possibly have an effect in my district.

PA - 06. Incumbent Jim Gerlach (R) has been pounding on the "Obama is taking away your medicare" since the day after O's inauguration. They obviously are counting on seniors to maintain the small margin by which Gerlach keeps winning his congressional seat. If seniors move away from blind faith in the Republicans on this issue, it could really be significant in this district.