New Ohio/Univ of Cin Poll

[woolldog]

It's a tossup

http://www.ipr.uc.edu/documents/op082312.pdf

Obama (49) Romney (46)

MOE: 3.4%

[scheming daemons]

1. if it was 49-46 Romney, concern trolls like you would be calling it a

"Romney lead"


The President is AHEAD in Ohio. Spin it as negative all you want.

[liberal N proud]

2. University of Cincinnati - They probably only polled in the southern part of the state

[woolldog]

15. You're kidding. nt

[Cali_Democrat]

3. Ohio will be VERY tough for Romney to win

Obama's bailout of the auto industry is seen as a huge positive in that part of the country. Romney writing an op-ed titled "Let Detroit Go Bankrupt" probably killed his chances in Ohio.

Also, Romney's Bain record of outsourcing and killing manufacturing companies certainly won't win him any votes.

[Ashleyshubby]

4. It's a 3 point lead, not a "tossup"

"statistical tie" is a myth.

[crimson77]

5. On another thread, the OP made a point that new voter ID laws would subtract anywhere from 3-5 pts

from Pennsylvania. Does anyone know if that is true for every state that laws are like that. Because if it is there isn't enough Mylanta in the world for me in the last week of this campaign.

[Marsala]

10. Pennsylvania has by far the worst new voter ID laws

Ohio has restrictions on early voting and stuff. Bad, but not as bad as Pennsylvania.

[yellowcanine]

6. only a "tossup" if one doesn't consider all of the other polls which also show leads for Obama.

If it were really a true tossup the lead will trade back and forth more than it does in Ohio.

[TroyD]

7. That's a good point

The large majority of polls have shown Obama ahead in Ohio throughout 2012. There was also another poll today that I posted that showed Obama ahead 6 points in Ohio (CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac)

Usually the only polls that have shown Romney ahead there have been Rasmussen and Purple.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/oh/ohio_romney_vs_obama-1860.html

[Dawgs]

9. Not usually, but all since February, when Fox News had one showing Romney winning.

Ohio has looked really good for Obama since forever. Romney is in deep shit if he can't come up with something big before the election.

[aaaaaa5a]

8. Agreed. Folks a race isn't a tossup when the lead is 3-6 points in EVERY poll. NT

[brooklynite]

11. Here is MY definitive prediction for Ohio...

Polls will come out in the next two months saying President Obama is ahead

Polls will come out in the next two months saying Mitt Romney is ahead

The actual vote in November will be close.

Have I left anything out?

[tnvoter]

12. I was given a neighborhood tour of Columbus last

noticed very few yard signs in general. Even still, Obama signs outnumbered Romney signs in three of the most likely "red" neighborhoods: Bexley, Upper Arlington and Dublin.

Romney is not doing as well as he should in Ohio.

[WI_DEM]

13. Of course another poll out today (CBS) gives Obama a six-point lead.

[woolldog]

14. "tossup"

For all those reacting angrily to the categorization of the race as a "tossup":

(1)

(2) this is what the poll authors say, not my characterization. The first line of the poll, if you bother to click the link is: "Ohio battleground a tossup"

If this upsets you, you really should take it up with the pollster, not me.

[Cali_Democrat]

16. I think there may be some confusion

between this specific poll and the other polls. The author might have characterized this Ohio poll as a tossup, but DUers were taking exception to classifying Ohio in general as a tossup because poll after poll shows Obama ahead.

[Blaukraut]

17. Woolldog, step away from the polls!

It's understandable that you're worried, but you're going to make yourself sick.