Nate Silver (538) says Colorado model DOESN'T predict Romney win...

[brooklynite]

Nate Silver ‏@fivethirtyeight
It's late, so I'll be blunt: I saw their paper and I think there are glaring problems with their methodology. (2/5)

Nate Silver ‏@fivethirtyeight
The U. of Colo. model fits the equivalent of 7 unknowns to 8 elections. That's not a good idea. (3/5)

Nate Silver ‏@fivethirtyeight
The Colo. model also assumes huge effects from unemployment if incumbent is a Dem., but none if he's GOP. Hard claim to defend. (4/5)

Nate Silver ‏@fivethirtyeight
Also, it's false advertising to claim CU model has predicted the last 8 elections right. It's a new model. Hasn't predicted anything yet.

https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight

[hlthe2b]

1. Yeah, Nate... I think I will take his assessment over these prof's approach to

predictive modeling

[still_one]

2. In addition it doesn't factor the war on women

Or destruction of social security and medicare plus a lot of other issues

[Panasonic]

3. Like I said yesterday

The CU researchers are smoking too much crack.

They keep forgetting one key factor: Republican obstructionism.

[LiberalFighter]

8. They aren't smoking too much crack

They are sniffing their ass.

[flamingdem]

4. K&R

[otohara]

5. CO Will Be Blue

And marijuana will be legal!

[Panasonic]

9. Yup..

Just bought some Vanilla Kush.. really good quality stuff...

[longship]

6. Call it the "Texas Sharpshooter Model"

You shoot at the side of a barn, then paint a target around the bullet hole.

I think that describes the methodology fairly well.

[davidpdx]

7. Glad to see Nate pick it apart

Hopefully he'll post more on the blog.

[marlakay]

10. My daughter just moved to Colorado

And registered to vote yesterday. She is for Obama.

she is in monument area. Her husband is in air force but he is keeping residency in Texas because of low taxes and fees.

She told me she is excited after all these years of her vote doing nothing in Texas to vote in a swing state.

[SILVER__FOX52]

11. I knew it was Crap.............

but hearing it from Nate Silver is great. We're going to see a lot of " swift boating " nonsense this Election, i.e. silly Polls, Rumors, etc. Don't believe anything you read a first blush. The right-wing Crazies are going to ramp-up their clutter and lies.