IPSOS REUTERS-Clinton support strongest since February

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Clinton support strongest since February
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's support neared 60 precent, while Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders has also held steady in the 30 percent range.

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR131/

[Renew Deal]

1. That's because nobody likes her

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. Some folks confuse DU and their random conversations for proof .

EOM

[ibegurpard]

3. a majority of 1/3 is still.a minority

General Election match ups do not replicate these numbers. She is polling behind or slightly ahead of the scariest Republicans. Her negativity ratings are high and she has little room to move on them. Despite these warning signs you continue to happily steer the HMS Hillary straight towards that iceberg. God help us all.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. Yet she is favored at the predictions and betting markets

Yet she is favored at the predictions and betting markets:


http://www.predictwise.com/politics/2016president

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/winner


And voters when they are asked invariably say and believe she will win the election:



Please excuse me if I choose to rely on that evidence and not the idle musings of a disgruntled partisan on an internet message boards.

Thank you in advance.

[ibegurpard]

8. betting and predictors are not factoring many things

Like her high negatives and lack of support with younger voters. You're going to be relying on a spectacularly bad Republican campaign and amazing turnout from traditional Democratic constituencies (yesterday's results should be a huge wakeup call to you but I doubt you'll pay any attention).

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. The peer reviewed research indicates the best predictor of electoral success...

The peer reviewed research suggests the best predictor of electoral success is actually asking voters who they think will win:

Simple surveys that ask people who they expect to win are among the most accurate methods for forecasting U.S. presidential elections

pg.1

http://forecasters.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/gravity_forms/7-2a51b93047891f1ec3608bdbd77ca58d/2013/07/Graefe_vote_expectations_ISF.pdf

And the same peer reviewed research suggests predictive/betting markets are useful predictive tools as well:

Studies of prediction market accuracy for election forecasting commonly compare the
daily market forecasts to results from polls published the same day. These studies generally find
that prediction markets yield more accurate forecasts than single polls.

pg. 4

http://www.predictwise.com/politics/2016president

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/winner

Does all this suggest she will be our next president? No !!!. Does all this suggests she has a substantially better chance than all her Democratic and presumptive GOPU opponents? Yes.


As to you pointing out yesterdays polling numbers, of course, I saw them. I just don't put much stock in polls within the MOE a year out from the election. This is why:

[onehandle]

5. She's surging. The 'Not Hillary' Party peaked two months ago.

On to the General Election...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. What do you think of my observations in Post 3?

The peer reviewed research indicates the best predictor of electoral success is actually asking voters who they think will win and predictive/betting markets are highly useful predictors as well, ergo:

http://forecasters.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/gravity_forms/7-2a51b93047891f1ec3608bdbd77ca58d/2013/07/Graefe_vote_expectations_ISF.pdf

[onehandle]

7. Too early. The GE numbers will be fluid until well into the primary.

Wait until Spring.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. I agree...

Most of the G E match ups are within the MOE.

I got overly excited at the beginning when HRC had these huge leads...It was the heart overruling the head.

But we have some structural advantages like demographic trends and the Blue wall the GOPU doesn't have.

[ibegurpard]

10. a number of the states in the blue wall

Are entirely governed by Republicans. Keep whistling.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. As some of them in the previous five elections were....

a number of the states in the blue wall.Are entirely governed by Republicans. Keep whistling.

If you have evidence that having a governor of the same party is determinative in having a nominee from that party winning its Electoral College votes please cite it.

Thank you in advance.


P.S. Off the top of my head I know the biggest Blue Wall prizes are CA and NY and both were won by Democrats while GOPU governors were in office.

[ibegurpard]

13. Not just governors

The whole enchilada.
The Democratic Party is bleeding heavily and you are paying no attention.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. The party has huge problems but its beyond my ken to fix them.

But that is for another discussion...


The "in" party historically gets punished at the polls... The GOPU lost a ton of seat under of seats under Nixon, Reagan, and the Bushes. We lost even more seats under Carter, Clinton, and Obama.

The best way for the Democrats to reverse their losses would be to lose the presidency and let them "get blamed for everything" because most folks believe the president is responsible for everything but so many vulnerable people would get crushed if the GOPU virtually held all the levers of power it would be unnecessarily cruel.

[JaneyVee]

14. K AND R!