History says Bernie deserves a fair campaign

[angrychair]

During the first week of November in 2007, HRC was up an average of 22 points on then SBO (USA Today/Gallup had her up 28)
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html

HRC was crushing SBO in October of 2007:
"...and in October the same poll showed her commanding majority Democratic support, with 51% compared to Obama's 21% and Edwards' 15%."
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hillary_Clinton_presidential_primary_campaign,_2008

Then SBO didn't start polling north of 30 points, as a constant average, until January of 2008.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html

All major labor unions had endorsed HRC before December of 2007
http://www.gwu.edu/~action/2008/labor/laborendorse08.html

She had hundreds of endorsements from Congress and other Democratic Party elite and SuperDelegates
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Hillary_Clinton_presidential_campaign_endorsements,_2008

Will Bernie have the ability to swing back the other way as then SBO did? I Don't know but I hope so. I think he deserves a fair chance and a fair shake by everyone to try. Isn't the objective to have the best person for Dems and all Americans? Many, including me, believe he is that better candidate. Let's cut the "quite now for party unity" talk and let him run his campaign and let the American people decide.

[jfern]

1. Obama wasn't even polling above 25% until he won the Iowa caucus

[Thinkingabout]

2. He has had opportunity to sell his candidacy, he still has the opportunity to sell

His candidacy, it is his efforts.

[frazzled]

3. There were 8 candidates at that point in the 2007 primary season

There are only 3 now (and only 2 of which are making any progress). So you can't compare October 2007 with October 2015. It's more like post-April 2008, where the race was down to 2 candidates.

And let's remember (I remember it well, because I was a strong Obama supporter and watched every poll and primary, biting my nails): once it was down to those 2 it was a very close race that lasted all the way until June. Clinton won a lot of states, and in fact won slightly more of the popular vote. Where Obama succeeded was in having a superior delegate game and strategy early on that was impossible for her to overcome.

Any comparisons to this stage of the campaigns in 2008 is immaterial. And not just because, as people are wont to say, "Sanders is no Obama." It's a completely different primary race at this point, without a Joe Biden or Bill Richardson or John Edwards in the mix. Obama profited from their weak fundraising and performances and became, by primary time, a close contender—one who eventually won not because he got more votes, but because he garnered more delegates.

[angrychair]

4. I see your point

But don't completely agree.
As I posted above:
HRC was crushing SBO in October of 2007:
"...and in October the same poll showed her commanding majority Democratic support, with 51% compared to Obama's 21% and Edwards' 15%."
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hillary_Clinton_presidential_primary_campaign,_2008

And there was this observation from Gallup (bolded emphasis mine):

"The Democratic Race: Conditions Auspicious for Sen. Clinton to Win
Gallup’s 2007 national presidential polling strongly points to Clinton winning the 2008 Democratic nomination. Barring something unusual or otherwise unexpected, she is well positioned for the 2008 Democratic primaries. Obama has not been an insignificant rival: he came within single digits of tying Clinton for the lead at two points this spring. But he has recently lost ground and is now in the weakest position relative to Clinton that he has been in all year.

No other announced or potential Democratic candidate has come close to threatening Clinton’s front-runner status since the campaign began, including former Vice President Al Gore and former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards."

In other words, hands down, all consensus in November of 2007, was that no one could overcome her lead.

It is a primary race for the Democratic Party candidate for President until it isn't. He deserves to be in this race and he deserves to stay in this race till the convention if he wants.

[frazzled]

5. I completely agree that he deserves to stay in the race

as long as he wants. I never said he shouldn't. And I've really not heard anyone else say it either. I don't think anyone wants a coronation.

But that's not what this was about. It was about the aptness of comparisons to 2008.

[angrychair]

6. I appreciate the sentiment

While you might not think so, I think many HRC supporters would be very happy to have a clear path to the nomination with Mr. Sanders dropping out in November.

Lastly, while no two election cycles are alike I think there are many analogies between 2007 and 2015:
*Regardless of number of candidates still in the race, only 2 are of consequence, both in 2007 and 2015
*HRC had a clear lead in November of 2007 as she does in 2015
*she had all the union labor in 2007 as she does in 2015
*all major polling services had predicted HRC as the eventual winner in 2008, as they do in 2015
*she got more actual votes in 2008, as I suspect she will come close to in 2015
*SBO had a huge ground game building, was drawing huge crowds, more than any other canidiate, D or R. ( I know, I went to a campaign event in Virginia in 2007 and it was standing room only)...Bernie is drawing record crowds this election cycle (i know, I went to a campaign event in Seattle, there were thousands of people standing outside-including me-after filling 12,000 seat arena) more than any canidiate this election cycle.
*SBO had used Internet media in a way no other candidate had before in 2007. Bernie is using it to his advantage more effectively than any other canidiate this election cycle.
* SBO had huge numbers of individual donations, well outpaced HRC and all other candidates, in percentage of small donations of less than $200, like no other candidate in history, in 2007.
Bernie, has not only matched but is outpacing SBO at this point in 2007 and bringing in more campaign donations from individual donors less than $200 than any other canidiate, R or D in this 2015 cycle.

There are many valid and comparable similarities but is it like for like? No, of course not. There are still many factors that draw fair comparisons and show how the tide could very well turn to Bernie's favor next year just as it did for our president.

[UglyGreed]

7. K/R