2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumHillary Clinton May Be the Biggest Winner from the Blowout October Jobs Report
The news that the U.S. economy added a whopping 271,000 jobs in October, driving the unemployment rate to 5 percent a level last seen in 2008 is good news for thousands of newly employed Americans, good news for President Obamas approval ratings and good news for retirees and financial services firms, which have been waiting impatiently for the Federal Reserve to begin raising interest rates.
There is likely nobody happier, though, than the frontrunner for the Democratic presidential nomination, Hillary Clinton.
Despite a plethora of polling about candidates favorability ratings, trustworthiness and how much people would like to have a beer with them, there is a strong belief among many election forecasters that the most important factor in presidential elections absent utterly disqualifying mistakes by one of the candidates is the status of the U.S. economy.
Specifically, the thinking is that the economic trends that are in operation at the time of the election have a very significant impact on the public perception of the party holding the White House. An economy on the downslope is bad news for the incumbent party, while an economy thats improving even from a very low level is good news.
A month ago, when September jobs numbers disappointed by coming in lower than an already weak-looking August, there was widespread speculation that the U.S. economy might be sliding into a period of relative stagnation.
http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/2015/11/06/Hillary-Clinton-May-Be-Biggest-Winner-Blowout-October-Jobs-Report
Tierra_y_Libertad
(50,414 posts)Dawgs
(14,755 posts)And most people aren't happy.
upaloopa
(11,417 posts)Good for Hillary
Jim Lane
(11,175 posts)I've heard the theory that the single most important economic factor is how the unemployment rate moves during the summer before the election. If July 2016 is bad, the Democratic nominee won't get much benefit from a good report nine months earlier.
Aerows
(39,961 posts)My own feeling is that she won't.
Hiraeth
(4,805 posts)Slow down when reading subject lines ... else will see Clinton and blow job in same sentence and will be accused of Republican sensibilities.
Cha
(297,655 posts)Bernie's agenda.
The White House Verified account
@WhiteHouse "We've...multiplied the power we generate from the sun 20 times over." @POTUS #ActOnClimate
http://theobamadiary.com/2015/11/06/the-presidents-day-76/
The White House Verified account
@WhiteHouse Good news: The unemployment rate is at its lowest level since April 2008 → http://go.wh.gov/OctJobs
Mahalo for your OP!
Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)It will be good for Clinton starting her administration without this burden.
tokenlib
(4,186 posts)How many are service sector jobs with lower pay and benefits? How many people are underemployed and displaced from former living wage and benefit jobs? How many middle aged people just gave up and stopped looking for work? Are these the jobs we're looking for?
What's the real unemployment rate?
I don't trust these reports.. And don't get distracted by the bright shiny jobs report, and miss the big stinking pile of TPP that the "establishment" is trying to sneak by everyone....