In Florida, Tampa Is Essential to Romney Election Hopes
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/29/in-florida-tampa-is-essential-to-romney-election-hopes/
The Republican Party has good reason to hold its national convention in Tampa, Fla. The Tampa area is the most competitive section of the most competitive region in one of the most competitive states in the nation the perfect place to seek a glimmer of extra advantage in a closely-fought presidential contest.
In many ways, the Tampa area was the weakest link in the regional coalition that Barack Obama built to win Florida in 2008. The Tampa-St. Petersburg media market is home to a quarter of Floridas registered Republicans, and Mr. Obama carried Hillsborough and Pinellas Counties home to Tampa and St. Petersburg by a smaller margin than Floridas other major population centers. If Mitt Romney wants to win the state, it represents the most attractive target.
And winning Florida is a must for Mr. Romney. Based on the simulations that the FiveThirtyEight forecast model ran on Tuesday, Mr. Romney has only a 0.3 percent chance of winning the election if he loses the state.
It is hard to conceive of Mr. Romney winning the election but losing Florida because Florida is an ever-so-slightly Republican-leaning state. If he loses it, hes probably having trouble elsewhere on the map as well. Its quite unlikely that Mr. Romney loses Florida but wins a state like Michigan or Pennsylvania, for instance.