2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNYT Poll: Hillary Clinton appears to have neutralized the Bernie Sanders threat
For months, the punditrys core assumption about the Democratic presidential primary has been that Bernie Sanders authenticity and unabashedly robust agenda to combat inequality pose serious threats to Hillary Clinton. The underlying idea has been that Clintons aura of triangulatory (is that a word?) centrism would cause serious skepticism among liberal Democratic voters, and any Clinton efforts to move to the left would risk seeming inauthentic, unprincipled, and superficial in comparison to Sanders.
Todays New York Times/CBS News poll seriously undermines this assumption. The poll shows Clinton leading Sanders by 52-33 among Democratic primary voters nationally.
And it also finds that Clinton has effectively tied Sanders or leads him among Democratic voters on the issues that were supposed to give him the advantage:
Among Democratic voters, a total of 84 percent are either very confident (39) or somewhat confident (45) in Clinton to make the right decisions about the economy. For Sanders, the total is 68 percent (32 percent very confident and 36 percent somewhat confident).
Among Democratic voters, a total of 67 percent are either very confident (25) or somewhat confident (42) in Clintons ability to help reduce the gap between the rich and poor. For Sanders, the total is 64 percent (30 percent very confident and 34 percent somewhat confident).
Among Democratic voters, a total of 70 percent are either very confident (30) or somewhat confident (40) in Clintons ability to make the right decisions when it comes to regulating large banks and financial institutions. For Sanders, the total is 65 percent (29 percent very confident and 36 percent somewhat confident).
Among Democratic voters, 62 percent say Clinton could bring about real change in the way things are done in Washington, while 51 percent say that about Sanders.
That last finding cuts against Sanders argument that he is the candidate who is not aligned with the establishment and thus is the one who represents genuine change.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2015/11/13/morning-plum-hillary-clinton-appears-to-have-neutralized-the-bernie-sanders-threat/
Fred Sanders
(23,946 posts)along the same lines as Obama for 8 more years.
brooklynite
(94,573 posts)MohRokTah
(15,429 posts)Fred Sanders
(23,946 posts)MohRokTah
(15,429 posts)AgingAmerican
(12,958 posts)Most call it 'Flip Flop'
PBass
(1,537 posts)I believe that most people are scared of big political changes, and prefer incremental change.
Also, look at all the big changes the Tea Party faction in Congress have been able to accomplish (basically nothing except gridlock). Sometimes, it's not what you can promise, it's what you can deliver.
reformist2
(9,841 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)That is a hell of a durable lead.
At this rate the Vermont independent might catch up by some time in the 22nd century, lol
ibegurpard
(16,685 posts)How many times has Bernie's obituary been written now?
litlbilly
(2,227 posts)really are skewed. They are missing about half the electorate, and that's what they want. When Hillary draws 28k people to a rally that aren't bought and paid for, Ill be convinced.
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)EOM
litlbilly
(2,227 posts)litlbilly
(2,227 posts)I was also accused of being a troll because I have less than 200 posts. Ive been a member over 3 years, I just don't waste a lot of time typing, I am a reader not a poster unless I am compelled.
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)And are weighted to reflect what percentage of each population demographic will actually vote. Real polls that follow a set methodology, even bad ones, will never be off by a factor of 50% from who actually shows up to vote. Not even close.
The polls are not skewed and certainly not for that reason.
litlbilly
(2,227 posts)and they are simply not polling correctly for the times. You will see.
Rogue Democrat
(71 posts)Will be the message from the millennials.