Thom Hartmann said something important about the polling methodology today...

[AZ Progressive]

He said that most of these polls only consider "likely voters", which actually is defined by someone who has voted in at least the last 2 primaries, maybe the last 2 to 4 primaries.

Thus the current polling ignores any potential for young voters to participate in the primaries as typically they don't participate much compared to older voting groups.

If Bernie is able to mobilize millennials to vote in the primaries (which looks likely), the current polling is effectively meaningless as Bernie's support is actually higher.

[MohRokTah]

1. Dean was going to mobilize the youth in 2004.

Edwards and Kucinich were going to mobilize the youth in 2008.

Ron Paul was always going to mobilize the youth to vote.

There's a word for the campaigns that depend upon mobilizing the youths in unprecedented numbers.

They're called "Losers".

[Bjorn Against]

4. Obama mobilized the youth vote in 2008, he did not lose

Those who dismiss young voters are the real losers.

[MohRokTah]

6. No, he really didn't.

The youth vote was not appreciably larger in 2008 that it was in 2004. He took young people overwhelmingly in 2008, but it was his popularity amongst minorities and with women that won him the nomination.

Two demographics that Sanders is sorely lacking in.

[Bjorn Against]

18. The census bureau disagrees with you.

The 2008 presidential election saw a significant increase in voter turnout among young people, blacks and Hispanics," said Thom File, a voting analyst with the Census Bureau's Housing and Household Economic Statistics Division. "But as turnout among some other demographic groups either decreased or remained unchanged, the overall 2008 voter turnout rate was not statistically different from 2004."

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/releases/archives/voting/cb09-110.html

[MohRokTah]

19. You are citing turnout in the General Election, not the primaries and caucuses. eom

[Bjorn Against]

23. Well it just so happens that young voter turnout increased in the primaries as well...

http://www.pewresearch.org/2008/02/11/young-voters-in-the-2008-presidential-primaries/

[Rogue Democrat]

30. Use that flyswatter!

Facts defeats made-up shit. Thank you Bjorn Against!

[MohRokTah]

36. Not appreciably. Eom

[Bjorn Against]

37. An increase from 9% to 14% is huge

That means that there were over 50% more voters in that age bracket in 2004 than in 2008. It is laughable to see you try to pretend that is not an appreciable difference.

[MohRokTah]

40. No, it really isn't

Certainly not enough to affect likely voter polls.

And there are ZERO statistics on caucus goer numbers because those numbers are not tabulated, only delegate counts to state conventions are tabulated in caucuses.

Furthermore, if you recall from 2008, Hilary Clinton won the popular vote in the primaries. It was by overwhelmingly winning the delegates in those state conventions from caucus states where Obama gained his insurmountable lead.

[AZ Progressive]

10. That was before the millennial wave

Millennials are making a huge impact on America, as seen especially within the last 5 years.

Millenials know that they are changing America and thus have the confidence that they can do further change in America.

[MohRokTah]

12. She me the stats on Millenials in the 2014 election.

OOPS, they sat it out in droves.

[giftedgirl77]

2. Thom Hartman told me that Bernie Sanders was giving out

unicorns that shit $20 bills to everyone who signs up for his grassroots campaign.

[MohRokTah]

14. THREAD WIN!!!!

[giftedgirl77]

29. Thank you....

I have come to the conclusion that no grown-up conversations shall occur on this board
..

[leftofcool]

28. ROFLMAO

[PBass]

3. "Don't trust the polls" is not a realistic position to take. (NT)

[Bjorn Against]

11. In a primary election it is a very realistic position to take

If you look at the history of Presidential primaries you will see that it is not at all uncommon for polls to change drastically in the months before the election. Thinking the polls are not going to change between now and the election is a lot less realistic than thinking they will change. At this time in 2007 Hillary had a huge lead over Obama.

[PBass]

16. I didn't say that polls don't change. I said that not trusting polls is not realistic. (NT)

[Bjorn Against]

17. It is not realistic to trust polls in a primary election

We have seen far too many primary elections in which the polls have been off by huge margins to place trust in them.

Polling in General Elections is far more accurate, but polling primaries is very difficult and given the huge shifts we have seen in past primaries it is really not realistic to trust primary polls.

[PBass]

21. I wouldn't trust ONE poll, but when all the polls seem to be saying the same thing,

I think it's foolish to ignore them. Whether it's a primary or general election. YMMV.

Feel free to school me on examples where the primary polls were dramatically wrong. But I have a feeling those examples will be rare.

[Bjorn Against]

25. Look at where both Obama and McCain were polling in 2007

Both of them were trailing by large amounts at this stage in the process but they both got their party's nomination.

On edit: For an even more stark example look at the polls for the 2012 Republican nomination, I think nearly every candidate in the field led the pack at one point or another.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. Would someone please inform Mr. Hartmann that different pollsters use different screens.

Thank you in advance.

[PatrickforO]

7. I've been saying this all along.

Many, many people are in for a surprise when the votes start rolling in.

[taught_me_patience]

8. if your campaign is counting on millenials

To mobilize, its doomed to failure. Especially given that millenials prefer your opponent.

[yallerdawg]

9. Of course!

Millennials - that 80,000,000 voting age demographic - are not counted in polling (right).

The pollsters need to track down the "unlikely" voters to get a true representation...

[Dem2]

13. lol

now I know how to make a pretzel

[Godhumor]

15. Not quite how likely voters are decided

Most pollsters that use a historical screen generally define it as voting in one of the previous two primaries.

And the 18-24 demographic is notoriously unlikely to die up at the polls regardless of enthusiasm. Maybe this will be the election that bucks the trend, but no one is betting on it.

[99th_Monkey]

20. Not Only That: What Harman may not have, but is also true

is that previously registered Independents, Greens, and yes even Republicans who change their
registration to vote for Bernie are not counted either as "likely Democratic voters"

[yallerdawg]

24. Sanders Republicans?

And I thought Democrats were screwed up!

[99th_Monkey]

27. I'm glad you are amused about it. This is why Bernie will definitely be a far-stronger GR nominee

But it's only ONE of several important reasons Democrats -- and by extension the nation -- need
Bernie to be the Democratic nominee. Disaffected pissed-off Republicans with more than 5-6 brain
cells still functioning really would rather vote for someone where they at least KNOW what they
are getting, because of his authenticity factor and rare integrity. It resonates with their humanity.

Republcans for Bernie: https://www.facebook.com/republicansforbernie/posts/1466058607031191

Why Surprising Numbers of Republicans Have Been Voting for Bernie Sanders in Vermont
http://www.alternet.org/news-amp-politics/why-surprising-numbers-republicans-have-been-voting-bernie-sanders-vermont

Bernie Sanders On Reaching Out To Conservatives: I Got 25% Of The Republican Vote In Vermont
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2015/09/18/bernie_sanders_i_got_25_of_the_republican_vote_in_vermont.html

[yallerdawg]

31. "... his authenticity factor and rare integrity. It resonates with their humanity."

Don't they get that in Ben Carson?

Republicans - Repubicans! - are going to turn to the democratic socialist?

I guess your giving up on Democrats?

Smilies help keep this civil.

[99th_Monkey]

33. Yes, some DO fall for Trump or Carson hate-based idiocy, but that's NOT who I'm talking about

Hint: 75% of Vermont Republicans DO still vote for the GOP candidate, running against Bernie. <--NOT
who I'm talking about.

I'm talking about the 25% of GOP who cross-over to support Bernie for above mentioned reasons.
Anyone pretending this won't be an important factor in the 2016 GE is kidding themselves IMHO.

[yallerdawg]

34. Okie dokie.

You have found your path to victory.

And this won't end until November 2016 - "You can still write the name in!"

[99th_Monkey]

35. I could do write-in, but will choose not to.

I don't vote for 'spoilers', which is why I'm supporting Bernie in Primary.

[yallerdawg]

39. Well, in that case...

your supporting Bernie in the Primary doesn't bother me at all.

I wish I had your faith.

Supporting the Democratic nominee is what is most important.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

22. Iceberg polling

[NorthCarolina]

26. I'm not worried about the polls, they're highly manipulated for results

acceptable to the establishment.

[antigop]

32. Hillary's Campaign Manager: "A lot of the public polling is not very reliable"

Taken from:
Hillary Clinton Aides Shed Light on Bill’s Role in Her Campaign
http://time.com/3920153/bill-clinton-hillary-campaign-adviser/

Mook also dismissed recent poll numbers that suggest Hillary Clinton’s favorability numbers are slipping. According to a CNN poll published last week, 57% of Americans think the former secretary of state is not trustworthy. “A lot of the public polling is not very reliable,” Mook said. “I don’t pay a whole lot of attention to it.”

[appalachiablue]

38. +1. Mook's statement about polls should be written in neon letters.

[yallerdawg]

41. That statement was from June 12, 2015.

I wouldn't ask him now.

Statewide opinion polling for the Democratic Party presidential primaries, 2016




Key:

Green - Hillary Clinton ahead, 29 states + 5 shared

Blue - Bernie Sanders ahead, 1 state + 5 shared

Gray - No polling data in last six months, 14 states & D.C

[appalachiablue]

43. Mook said that last summer I knew. His view of polls now is considerably different I'm sure.

[AZ Progressive]

42. Another thing: Millenials have more skin in the game with college debt

Much of the economic issues are more important to them than they have ever been.

[appalachiablue]

44. Absolutely. That is a huge issue with millennials understandably. A candidate who

acknowledges the urgency of climate change is also critical, maybe more than whether candidate x is the first elected to the executive office.

[Bleacher Creature]

45. What stage of political grief is "unskewing"? eom