Morning Consult National Poll Clinton 57% (+1) Sanders 26% (-2)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

On the Democratic side, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton leads her nearest rival by 31 percentage points. Clinton takes 57 percent of the vote, compared with 26 percent who favor Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.). Just 2 percent said they would vote for former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley (D).

Sanders challenges Clinton only with the youngest set of voters; among those between the ages of 18 and 29, Sanders and Clinton are tied at 43 percent. Clinton leads by wide margins among liberals (57 percent to 32 percent), Hispanic voters (52 percent to 38 percent) and African Americans (80 percent to 8 percent), the bedrocks of a Democratic primary electorate.

Democratic voters who cite national security as their most important issue trust Clinton much more than the broader electorate: Those voters favor the former Secretary of State by a 61 percent to 13 percent margin.

http://morningconsult.com/2015/11/terror-attacks-spotlight-voters-growing-security-concerns/

[lunamagica]

1. K&R. So, it's a TIE with the millennials

So much for the meme that millennials overwhelmingly support Sanders.

[NurseJackie]

7. Yes! That tid-bit stood out for me as well. Very interesting. (nt)

[litlbilly]

10. This just proves these polls mean nothing. Enough with polls already.

How does this get all the K&R with so few responses? Don't trust that either. These polls you guys put up will just sink like the rest of them.

[lunamagica]

13. "This just proves these polls mean nothing. Enough with polls already."

That's what Romney used to say...

[sufrommich]

14. And this dude:

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/unskewed-polls-founder-i-was-only-wrong-because-i-didn-t-consider-voter-fraud

[George II]

24. Yes, it's a "tie" between the two for millennials, but that is the age demographic that....

...historically has the lowest turnout.

From the US Census Bureau, here are the % of voter TURNOUT for each age group in 2008:

..18 to 24 years 49%
..25 to 34 years 57%
..35 to 44 years 63%
..45 to 54 years 67%
..55 to 64 years 72%
..65 to 74 years 72%
..75 years over 68%

The highest turnout rate was of voters 55 and up.

https://www.census.gov/hhes/www/socdemo/voting/publications/p20/2008/tables.html

[Iliyah]

2. K & R

[JaneyVee]

3. And only a +/-3.3% MOE.

Nice.

[NurseJackie]

55. Wow! I'd overlooked that part! You're right ... NICE!

[brooklynite]

4. Why Hillary Clinton is focus on raising money as much as she is...

...according to Robby Mook, the plan is that the Primary will effectively be over by March (50% of delegates awarded) and they want to start targeting the prospective Republican candidate far in advance of the June convention. However, GE funds can't be spent until the end of the Democratic convention at the end of July. Hence, the need for as much Primary funding as possible.

[Iliyah]

5. True dat

GOPers are well endowed and is a power house. What's good for the country and her people, it's their weakest link. Smart move with HRC campaign. She is a force to be reckon with also.

[BlueMTexpat]

22. LOL - I choked a bit on this

GOPers are well endowed ...

but I then realized that you likely mean well funded.

[sufrommich]

6. The Young Rascals were the first band I ever saw in concert.

I'm just throwing that out there as a kick for this great news.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. First group I ever saw in concert was the Eagles.

I saw the Eagles, Jimmy Buffet, and Hall and Oates at the Tangerine Bowl in Orlando, FL for $10.00

(LIVE FROM THAT ERA)

[zappaman]

39. Well, at least one of those bands had soul!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

40. The Eagles are an amazingly gifted band.

When I was a young man I loved the SoCal sound-the Eagles, Jackson Browne, and Linda Ronstadt.

[zappaman]

41. Sorry, but I gotta side with the dude on this one.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

43. I grew up in FL and dreamed of living in SoCal

I finally got here but now I am almost too old to enjoy it.

[zappaman]

60. I've been here 30 years!

Grew up on east coast as well.
Still love it here!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

62. i would have loved it more if I was thirty years younger...

Reminds me of Rodney Dangerfield who was said to be better because he didn't become famous until late in life and was too old to take advantage of the perquisites that come with fame.

[PosterChild]

64. My first: Alice Cooper . ...

Mom: who's she ? Us: LOL - except we REALY laughed out loud because the was no Internet or texting !

[Buzz Clik]

9. From this day in 2007:

Clinton 44.3%
Obama 22.6%

[lunamagica]

11. Interesting...How many delegates and endorsements did Obama have at this point?

[Buzz Clik]

17. Delegates? Same as Clinton: 0

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. From this day in 2015

I am so confident that Hillary will be the nominee that I am willing to wager $500.00 that she will be the nominee that if I win I will give the $500.00 to charity as I am not motivated by filthy lucre or pecuniary gain. If I lose I will give the person who takes the wager $500.00 to do with as he or she pleases.

[lunamagica]

16. Funny that none of those who are oh, so sure Sanders is going to win have accepted.

Don't they have any charity they care to support? Or is it something else?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. They could even pool their money to put me on the spot.

[a2liberal]

66. It's because we can get better odds elsewhere

And yes, that means people think Sanders has a lower chance. But if I can get about 5:1 odds at a prediction market like predictit.org, regardless of how confident I am in Sanders winning why would I wager $500 with you for a chance of winning $500 when I could wager $500 there for a chance of winning $2000? And yes, I do own some Bernie nomination shares there (though not $500 worth)

P.S. you can also go bet on Hillary there if you're eager to do so, though you would only win ~$125 if you win... If you truly believe the odds are 12:1 you still come out ahead in expected value

[treestar]

30. Any takers yet DSB?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

32. None...

I hardly ever, ever, ever...wager...When I go to Vegas I might spend less than twenty dollars in three days wagering. And in this instance if I win I get nothing and if I lose I will be out $500.00 which I will sorely miss.

[Hiraeth]

48. Right here is the difference between HRC supporters and BS supporters. HRC people have that kind of

to throw around. BS supporters don't. How nice of you to have that much money to put where your mouth is. Wish I did.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

49. I don't even have my own checking account...

But I would do without to give $500.00 to charity.

I am about to leave my 450 square foot rent controlled studio apartment I share with my gf in my customary attire; a years old t-shirt, basketball shorts, and a pair of well worn sneakers.

The difference is one group of supporters believes in their candidate, to the point of great individual sacrifice, and the other doesn't.

[Hiraeth]

50. what I am hearing is that you are a blowhard and I don't believe you will do it.

you are shooting off your mouth to look big on the internet.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

53. We can set up a paypal today...

what I am hearing is that you are a blowhard and I don't believe you will do it.you are shooting off your mouth to look big on the internet.

You couldn't be more wrong about me, really.



At the moment I can only put $150.00 in it. By the time the primaries end I will put the remaining $350.00 in it. There will be a total of $1,000 in it when you match it...When I win I will keep my $500.00 and give the $500 I won to charity and verify it.[/i

I reckon I have to put $75.00 a month in it until June after the $150.00 so nobody is going to miss it.



I believe my chances of losing are so small as to be negligible, literally less than one chance out of twelve or so... Folks play Russian Roulette with much lesser odds and infinitely more at stake.

[Hiraeth]

56. What does your gf think about all this?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

59. She will be fine with it...She gives 10% of her income to charity...

As I said I have $150.00 I can put in a pay pal account today and $75.00 a month I will put in to June.

I will do without niceties like the salads I buy from McDonalds and a drink... Eliminating that will get me to the $75.00 a month mark. I can order off the $1.00 menu.

I like my odds of not losing; They are about 1 in 12:


http://www.predictwise.com/politics/2016DemNomination

[Hiraeth]

61. So then, you have not discussed this with her. Interesting.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

63. I still have residual commissions , albeit very small ones

I still have residual commissions , albeit very small ones, from clients I have had over a decade. It literally comes out to $324.00 a year so I am close.

Your dilatory tactics are noted...Losing $500.00 would be a hardship to me but considering I lost hundreds and hundreds of thousands when I lost my home, my business, my car, my savings, and my investments in the Great Recession $500.00 is insignificant. Filthy lucre or pecuniary gain isn't my motivation. i don't own a car...My most valuable possession is my Lenovo laptop that I received for my birthday.

If you believe I will abscond with the PayPal funds we can set up some controls.

P.S. My chances of losing are so small as to be infinitesimal. I am more worried my SoCal apartment will be rocked by an earthquake.

[Duval]

51. Holy Smokes! I can't afford to bet $25.00!

[Freddie Stubbs]

21. So, she is doing much better against Sanders than she was against Obama at this point

[Godhumor]

23. Do you get why the 2015 poll results are much better for HRC than the ones in 2007?

2 hints:

Look at % of total support for Clinton 2015 vs 2007.

Look at % of total support not claimed by the two leading candidates in 2015 vs 2007.

[Buzz Clik]

26. Just reporting the numbers. That's it.

but, yeah -- I recognized both items instantly.

[George II]

29. Sanders doesn't have one tenth of the charisma and appeal that Obama has, and....

....Obama didn't alienate hugh groups of Americans.

[Buzz Clik]

31. I disagree.

Sanders has roughly one tenth the charisma as Obama.

[Hiraeth]

58. "Obama didn't alienate hugh groups of Americans."

..... reassuring to know that the redneck/racist/rightwing Christian, bigoted population of the USA is so small

[MaggieD]

15. You mean people still aren't feeling the Bern?

What happened to the surge?

[Buzz Clik]

19. Now, you know that polls are controlled by the 1%.

So, Sanders is probably leading.

[MaggieD]

20. LOL!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

25. If you believed that for a moment you would commandeer me to give $500.00 to charity

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=820728

[Buzz Clik]

27. I don't believe it, but...

... I don't wager. A fool and his money...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

28. The $500.00 goes to charity.

You could go to the group and probably raise $5.00 from every member.

I am essentially wagering $500.00 to win $0.00

That's the power of conviction.

[DownriverDem]

36. Oh please

All that matters is Nov. 2016. Hillary is the best Dem candidate to run. I like Bernie, but we haven't seen nothing yet with what the repubs would do to him with all their millions. Don't you Bernie folks wonder why the repubs have not opened fire on him yet? It's because the repubs want Bernie to be the Dem nominee. They believe by attacking Bernie as the socialist/commie candidate it will be a win for them.

[tritsofme]

33. BS! The poles are skewed!1!1!1!

[SunSeeker]

34. And Hillary's line on the graph is pointing up, while Bernie's is pointing down.

Another huge difference with this date in 2008.

[DownriverDem]

35. Elections are won in the middle

I have followed Hillary since her work on the Watergate Hearings. She is running the same primary campaign as Obama did in 2008. All that matters is racking up delegates. I have waited forever to be able to vote for a qualified woman for president. I will proudly cast my vote for Hillary, but if Bernie gets the nomination, I will vote for him. I really think that the fact that Hillary is female is not registering with many Bernie supporters. They have no idea what her win would mean to many of us. To have her follow the first black president is just icing on the cake.

All that matters is Nov. 2016. I've been around the block a few times, but have never been attacked and called such horrible names by many Bernie supporters. Then it became clear that those hateful Bernie supporters were really repubs who want Bernie to be the Dem nominee. Repubs fear Hillary getting the presidential nomination.

[Blue_Adept]

45. The psychological impact is going to be crushing for conservatives

Not only another loss after losing twice to Obama, but following him up with her and then the Clinton name on top of it is just going to cause some heads to explode.

[Kentonio]

67. Well done.

You managed to accuse Sanders supporters of being sexist AND secret Republicans in a single post. You must be very proud of yourself. Perhaps come Nov 2016 you'll receive the reward you so richly deserve for it.

[BrainDrain]

37. oh yeah...

another meaningless poll.

Now if we had a Morning Wood national poll...THAT would actually mean something.

[azurnoir]

38. ......

[Loudestlib]

42. Why should I vote for Hillary

I'm voting for Bernie in the primaries but why should I vote for Hillary in the general election if she wins the primaries.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

44. You should vote for that candidate who most closely reflects your views and can govern...

You should vote for that candidate who most closely reflects your views and can govern effectively in every election.

[Loudestlib]

46. That's my delima.

I don't think Hillary reflects my views.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

47. Follow your conscience.

For me almost anybody with a (D) after their name is better than anybody with a (R) after his name.

[riversedge]

52. and this was a POST--2nd Dem debate. Impressive

[Vattel]

54. Yes, we know, the dishonest hawk is winning. That is sad.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

57. Thank you for your input and may the rest of your life be the best of your life.

EOM

[Cha]

65. Thank you, DSB!

[Alfresco]

68. Hillary has ...

the BIG Mo on her side.

[Bobbie Jo]

69. K&R