What the national polls show and analysis

[Cheese Sandwich]

Huffington Post (Average of several polls)

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-democratic-primary


Real Clear Politics (average of several polls)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html

Analysis: Hillary is winning but Bernie is actually doing pretty well considering what he's up against. But hey there are going to be more polls later that will reflect the second debate and recent events like the terrorism.

Prediction: Bernie will win after making an awesome speech about democratic socialism that changes America forever.

[NuclearDem]

1. Some fine, objective analysis.

Completely grounded in reality as well.

Just fire all those morons with the stats degrees and run with this.

[Cheese Sandwich]

2. Yep thanks

[Godhumor]

6. I've already turned in my copy of Excel

But Bernie is doing better than I expected, to be truthful.

[72DejaVu]

3. Prediction:

Bernie fans will present NBC with millions of signatures on their petitions to have Bernie host Saturday Night Live.

They will agree to have him host, and the show's rating will be higher than the series finale of M*A*S*H.

Bernie will be so funny, while simultaneously making the case that America is a oligarchic hellhole, that by the time the show ends, his poll numbers will top 90%.

Hillary will withdraw from the race on Sunday Morning. O'Malley will try to counter the Bernmentum by doing a voiceover on The Simpsons, but no one will recognize him, and his campaign will collapse as well.

[Cheese Sandwich]

4. come on person look at these charts

[Adrahil]

5. Lol.... Your "prediction" reminds me of this:

[Cheese Sandwich]

9. LOL yes that's not too far off...

Well I'm not sure how firm or committed some to the Clinton voters are at this point. She's almost like the "generic Dem" on the ballot, like the default choice.

It doesn't seem very likely for Sanders to win at this point. I was just trying to be optimistic.

[Adrahil]

10. I detected a bit of humor in your post.

I am a Clinton supporter, but I do deeply admire Bernie Sanders. I do not think he can win the generals, but I'd still proudly pull the lever for him, if it came to that.

[HereSince1628]

7. Charts show me that among dem leaning respondents there's not enough of them undecided

If Sanders is going to get the nomination, it's going to take a flipping of 8-10 percent of Clinton voters, or getting a huge proportion of non-dem leaning voters suddenly participating in the primaries. He's also going to have to win among the remaining undecided. While the undecided have not quickly announced being drawn to Clinton. There's no reason to believe that they are dominated by people who lean to 'other than Clinton'.

Sanders might appeal to many independents, and non-dem lefties, maybe even some republicans tired of the status quo, but they must play in the primaries to make a difference. I haven't really seen evidence of that shift forming at this time.

So, my take on Bernie's chances is, he needs a national event that moves many dem leaning polling participants towards him.

He clearly would benefit from some big movement that involved minorities. While I have no crystal ball, that actually seems like a very big job under within the prevailing environment.

[Cheese Sandwich]

8. Yeah probably.

What you said is right but...

Let's say maybe Sanders voters are being underpolled somewhat, like if they're being missed because of cell phones. That can be part of the equation. Also if he's bringing in a lot of first time voters than can affect this. At this point the best chance for Sanders is really if Clinton makes a huge fumble and the media heavily reports it. It just doesn't seem very likely.

[NCTraveler]

11. When is his speech? Thanks. nt.

[MisterP]

12. Sanders' increase is completely solid and not subject to horse-race rules, wherease Clinton's "bounc

is strictly from Biden backers, one mainstream candidate transferring to another even as the mainstream's total keeps shrinking