Is Bernie Sanders winning? And how do you know?

[brooklynite]

For some candidates, it may be acceptable to state a position and let the chips fall where they may. But generally (and especially when the Presidency is at stake), the goal is to win: to earn enough delegates from enough States to win the nomination.

With respect to the Clinton-Sanders contest, claims that Clinton isn't winning by a significant amount (based on polling trends, endorsements, campaign organization, etc.) are frequently challenged by Sanders supporters. However these challenges seems to be based on 1) the emotional resonance of Sanders' message to the poster; 2) anecdotes about Sanders' supporters among one's family and friends (or sometimes encountered at a store or restaurant); or 3) claims of a significant share of disaffected voters who are never picked up in polling samples, but who are prepared to vote en-masse for him.

Yes, I'm aware that "no votes have been cast" and "the only poll that counts is the one on election day". But the campaign has been underway for six months, and many voters have made decisions or are leaning one way or another.

So - a simple question: is Bernie Sanders ahead of Hillary Clinton? In which States? And what is the basis for your claim?

(nb - I acknowledge that I have intentionally left Martin O'Malley out of this discussion. With all due respect to him, I'm not seeing any sign that he's reaching a level of support needed to be considered "competitive". Nothing personal)

[treestar]

1. of course he is silly!

The polls are commissioned by the oligarchs!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!111!!!!!



It's all a big conspiracy, I tell ya!

[think]

24. Correct the Record isn't exactly a poor mans super pac.

[BlueCaliDem]

29. No, no, NO! They're commissioned by Wall Street! *That's* the conspiracy!

And only Wall Street hedge fund managers, brokers, and shareholders of the 1% vote in each and every one of those polls!

Oh, and 75% of SEIU members are actually Wall Street 1%ers, too.

[Kalidurga]

2. He already won

I know because Hillary fans are running around trashing him for no apparent reason when just a few months ago he was our bestest friend ever a true hero to the working class.

[brooklynite]

3. I see - and since Sanders supporters are trashing Clinton that mean's she's won?

(that might explain a few things...)

[Kalidurga]

4. You mean talking about her record?

Sure if you want to go with that.

[Thinkingabout]

27. It may be a little of talking about her record and a lot which belongs to the trash can.

[Android3.14]

5. Sad

Bernie is ahead with ethical and informed voters.

[brooklynite]

6. Hmm...will "You're too STUPID to vote for Sanders" be a bumper sticker?

Might be a good conversation starter.

[Dawgs]

9. Don't you mean, "You're too STUPID to vote for Hillary" bumper sticker? n/t

[procon]

15. There's a poll for that?

Self identified ethical and informed voters only?

[mythology]

17. Which is why we all so fondly remember

The inspiring presidency of Adlai Stevenson.

It's really kind of amusing that some people can get so hung up on the minor differences that they would imply that anybody who prefers another candidate (or is happy to vote for any of them) are unethical and uninformed.

[Ed Suspicious]

28. The minor differences are really quite major. True, they aren't as pronounced as between a liberal

and the car filled with fascist clowns, but the differences are not so small as many would have us believe.

[frylock]

41. To be fair, Adlai Stevenson's social media presence really sucked.

[yardwork]

44. True. Really thoughtless oversight on his part.

[1StrongBlackMan]

18. "Ethical and informed voters"? WOW. Well ...

I guess I should be relieved that this kind of comment is being directed beyond the DU's African-American Group.

[Android3.14]

20. That's a bizarre response

But I'm glad you feel relief.

[1StrongBlackMan]

23. I'm pretty sure it would sound bizarre to you ...

Given your contributions to the discussions in the AA Group, vis-a-vis, Bernie and that African American electorate.

[leftofcool]

21. No kidding wow!

Isn't it usually the AA group being told they are unethical and uninformed?

[1StrongBlackMan]

25. Yep ...

And the poster above that found my post bizarre, was among those saying it.

[Thinkingabout]

30. Not from what I see, she is much ahead in endorsements, looks like Sanders is

Not convincing his co workers he is better. Bad statement, nothing to back it up.

[Nitram]

35. "ahead with ethical and informed voters" LOL

Is that a scientifically-based statement or just an uninformed personal opinion?

[KingCharlemagne]

7. Only a fool would argue that Sanders is currently 'winning,' much like

only a fool would argue that HRC already has the nomination sewn up. A lot can change between now and Feb. 1 and I would say most Americans won't seriously tune in until aftEr the holidays.

[randome]

10. I think the 'celebration' resides in the fact that the GOP still has too much power.

Neither Sanders nor Clinton will be able to make much headway against the laziest group of politicians we've ever seen so...we may as well have Clinton, which gives us our first female President and the possibility of eking out some compromises with the aforementioned obstructionists.

Whereas with Sanders we get neither of those.
[hr][font color="blue"][center]Don't ever underestimate the long-term effects of a good night's sleep.[/center][/font][hr]

[Nitram]

36. That's the same logic Republicans like Cruz use to persuade Republicans to vote for him.

"We lost to Obama because Romney wasn't conservative enough."

[Nitram]

39. Oh I think it does, because moving to the extreme right...

... is not going to make a GOP candidate more electable. Just as moving farther to the extreme left is not going to make a Democratic candidate more electable.

[Nitram]

45. Oh, I agree. but I'm not sure about a majority of the electorate. nt

[DianeK]

43. Now There's a Bumper Sticker one can proudly display..

HILLARY CLINTON BECAUSE WE MAY AS WELL!

yeah!

[NurseJackie]

12. TECHNICALLY SPEAKING … yes, it's absolutely true … Bernie still "has a chance".

And, technically speaking, I suppose the same thing could be said about Roseanne Barr. It could happen. It's definitely a possibility.

REMEMBER: No vote has been cast yet, so if Roseanne's supporters could get their ground-game together and manage to sway enough opinions and get enough supporters to (at the very least) write-in her name in states where she's not officially on the ballot ... well, then ... she could be the surprise candidate and WIN THIS THING!!

Endorsements? Endorsements-schmendorsements! Who needs endorsements?? Sheesh! Endoresments aren't voters!! Roseanne is smart enough to know that endorsements now means returned-favors-later and she won't play that game!

Money? Who needs dirty money? She don't need any stinking money!! She's the best candidate because she's REFUSING ALL DONATIONS! She's pure! She doesn't even want YOUR money because she doesn't want YOU to be bugging her for favors.

She is the ONE-TRUE-GRASSROOTS-CANDIDATE. Word of mouth is how she'll win! Talk to your friends. Talk to your neighbors. Make your own Zazzle bumper stickers!

You know, because NO VOTE HAS BEEN CAST, and because ITS NOT OFFICIAL, there's STILL TIME for Roseanne to be the nominee.

Polls be damned! They're all rigged anyway! It's voodoo! (And for those playing Anti-Hillary Bingo: Triangulation! Oligarchy! Third-way! Establishment! Status-quo! War-monger! IWR! Vince Foster! Whitewater! Benghazi! Email! Wall Street! 9-11! Coronation! Conspiracy! DWS! DLC! Brain tumor! Land-lines! M$M!)

Roseanne COULD BE the nominee. It's now up to her supporters. Look people, it's NOT OVER!! It's NOT a "done-deal". Don't believe the hype! There's still time if we just stick together and post more on Democratic Underground (the center of the political universe, and the place where ALL undecided voters come for unbiased information.)

If enough people vote for Roseanne SHE WILL WIN! I GUARANTEE IT!! Now, get to work!! Post harder!!

http://www.roseannebarr2016.com/

[pinebox]

13. He is

and here is one such example



The mere fact that millions upon millions are supporting a candidate who is very anti-establishment, who is this generations FDR and who soundly resonates with younger voters by a massive margin gives me hope for our future. It's time honesty comes back into politics.

Yup, he's winning in many ways and that goes far beyond an election.

[yardwork]

46. Wow. That photograph changes everything.

[Gothmog]

14. Ignoring polls and polling is not a great way to run a campaign

I still remember Rove and Romney ignoring the polls in 2012 and being shocked when romney lost

[NurseJackie]

19. +1

[riversedge]

16. Bernie is picking up more voter support than Trump or Carson from Republican voters.

Well of course Republicans want Sanders to win the primaries as they know they will hit him with the Socialist label during the GE (if by some unearthly miracle he makes it). They know Hillary would be hard to beat.



Tweet I just ran across... (really do not know how accurate it is--yet I have seen lots of posts here on DU saying the same)

@GinsburgJobs @fuegoside @politicususa I notice that Bernie is picking up more voter support than Trump or Carson from Republican voters.

[Samantha]

26. And that is one of the things that distorts his standing

The cross-over is not mentioned publicly, and the polling obviously does not include it.

I wonder how many Independents are planning to vote for Sanders.

Sam

[NurseJackie]

32. I wonder if the polling organizations already know which states have open primaries, and

which states only allow registered Democrats to vote in Democratic primaries. Seems like it would be pretty easy for them to find out and consider as part of their polling process.

[riversedge]

33. It is a mystery.

[whatchamacallit]

22. I don't know if Sanders is winning

I only know who deserves my vote and who doesn't. I'm voting For Bernie Sanders.

[djean111]

31. Me too.

I doubt whether these OPs are really meant to get Bernie supporters to switch their support, because that would be ridiculous.
Just little pointless jabs, IMO.

[Nitram]

34. I can't believe how many Sanderistas have posted...

...stuff saying things like, "I haven't seen any Clinton lawn signs where I live" or "no one I know is going to vote for Clinton". That's what passes for meaningful information in Bernie's World.

[moobu2]

38. More American people changed their support from Bernie Sanders to Hillary Clinton.

171 changed from Bernie to Hillary
156 changed from Hillary to Bernie

Source: an internet poll.

[frylock]

40. The frequency of these posts telling us that he's losing tells us he's winning.

if Hillary is winning, then why don't her supporters act like it?

[Nitram]

47. I suppose the frequency of Bernie supporters' posts that Bernie's actually winning...

...tell us Clinton's winning? A very weak argument, Frylock. We expect better of you.

[Gothmog]

48. Romney and Karl Rove ignored the polling in 2012

I really do not care what Sanders supporters believe any more than I cared that Rove and Romney were convinced that Romney would win in 2012.

[Alfresco]

49. Where is the data?

Opinions or predictions based on anything else are not credible.

[SidDithers]

50. Obviously, he is...

Sid