Hillary is doing steadily worse in swing state polls

[cali]

In a new CO poll she trails big time.

Colorado could be big trouble for Hillary Clinton.

The Democratic front-runner in the 2016 presidential race trails all the leading Republican contenders by 11 percentage points or more in the key swing state, a new Quinnipiac University poll shows.

<snip>
http://www.cnn.com/2015/11/18/politics/colorado-quinnipiac-poll-clinton-trails-rubio-carson/

In Florida, she also trails. And Ohio.

She'll be the democratic nominee.

Whether she can win the general election, well, that's another story.

[ThePhilosopher04]

1. I don't think she can win the general ...

she's doing too good of a job alienating real progressives who likely won't turn out to vote for her. Democrats need high turnout elections to win, she's doing a bang up job making sure the opposite is true.

[NCTraveler]

6. By registering voters at all of her events? nt.

[Fawke Em]

2. She won't.

I have been predicting she loses Ohio, North Carolina and Florida and possibly Colorado. I may have to move CO to the "definite" column soon.

[Stallion]

41. ....And She Would Still Win the General Election with 270 EVs

if the other traditional Democratic states vote for Hillary

http://www.270towin.com/

[vadermike]

3. Ok

So we should just give up and the GOP win. It's impossible for HRC to win next year if she is the nominee? I have noticed that quinnipiac has been the worst pollster so far and is seeing different results compared to others but if is correct we would lose in a landslide cause Q also has Bernie losing as well

[Fawke Em]

5. Other than on social issues, there isn't much difference.

That's what makes people stay home.

[cali]

7. I didn't say that we should give up.

I didn't say it was impossible for her to win. I simply pointed out a trend. And it is not limited to Quinnipiac.

[Robbins]

9. reality

Bernie has room to grow.Clinton doesn't.She is well known.if people now after years don't like her what would suddenly change in
a year.

You nominate Clinton say hello to President Trump.

[ThePhilosopher04]

12. The GOP will have already won if Hillary is the nominee ...

there's not a dimes worth of difference. Wall Street will continue to be encouraged to loot the general public, there will be no fight for a real minimum wage, perpetual war will continue, I could go on.

[Beacool]

56. I think that there are some of Sanders' supporters who secretly wish that she loses the ge.

Just so they can point a finger and say "we told you so". As if their candidate could do better.

[NCTraveler]

4. Really not going to get much info where assumptions can be made this far out.

Look at the field of candidates still in. I remember the exact argument as to why Obama couldn't win from Clinton supporters, now as can be seen here it is from Sanders supporters. See, you are doing the same thing Clinton supporters did in '07. As I often say, it's politics. lol. Polling changes over time. This poll is a snapshot of today with respect to an event that isn't even really close. I do get Sanders supporters must make this argument right now. There isn't much to go on besides electability. Simple fact is, the winner of our primary will take on the republicans with all of our support. This is kind of just a wake up call as to how much work we have to do in order to get progressives elected.

[vadermike]

10. Yeah

Plus the fact we know Q has been overweighting their polls this cycle with 2014 style R turnout which is not accurate for 2016 I hope

[Kentonio]

14. Well..

It'd probably have to begin with Democrats actually supporting a progressive candidate when one is available, instead of insisting the only option is more of the same old.

[cali]

15. Sure. It's just a snapshot, or rather a series of snapshots, and I'm not saying she can't win

I am saying, that for a variety of reasons, some specific to her, some not, she can lose.

[NCTraveler]

17. This is one of the most interesting posts I have read here.

In a national election one can either win or lose. I agree. We have a lot of work ahead of us.

[Tommy2Tone]

55. All our support?

I have read many a Bernie fan state they will never vote for Hillary.

[sabrina 1]

8. I don't agree she will be the nominee. Nor did I think so at this point in 2008.

[Robbins]

13. I refuse to concede she will be nominee

we have seen this show before.and it didn't end the way Clinton wanted the first time eather

[Hepburn]

11. Nominate her and we give the GE to the Repukes.

Her negatives are waaaaaaaaaaaay too high. She will give us tRump, Rubio or one of the other disasters as POTUS.

JMHO

[99th_Monkey]

16. Never mind that Sanders beats Trump in polls, pulls 21-25% of Vermont GOP voters

and would get HUGE numbers of Independents, Greens, and otherwise disaffected voters
in a GE election, voters who would not vote for Hillary if she paid them to.

Never mind all that, because "It's Her Presumptiveness' turn", consequences be damned.

[Beaverhausen]

18. Which member of the GOP circus do you think can beat her?

[cali]

19. I think trump and Rubio can.

[OilemFirchen]

34. Trump will not be the Republican nominee.

Until the Republican field is winnowed down to two or three, head-to-head polls like this are as worthless as Republican Primary polls.

[cali]

36. Oh, I think it's quite possible he will.

[OilemFirchen]

38. Of course you do.

That's why you said so, innit?

[AgingAmerican]

21. With little to no exposure of the Democratic brand

Probably whichever gets the nomination. She will not win on name recognition alone.

[AgingAmerican]

20. It's DWS/Hillary's 'name recognition only' campaign strategy

No exposure for the Democratic brand or taking 'moderate' non positions on issues.

[ibegurpard]

22. She is going to kill us down-ballot

[upaloopa]

23. We don't even know who will be the repub

nominee. Repubs will not vote for who ever the Dem candidate is. I doubt independents will turn a sharp left corner to vote for Bernie

[ibegurpard]

25. her favorables are underwater with independents

And they all know who she is. She's been in the public eye for my entire political lifetime.

[Prism]

24. I share your grim diagnosis

She will be the nominee, and she will lose the general.

She's not a good campaigner, her negatives are high, and as the recent debate showed, the longer she's left out in the open to say something unscripted, the worse it goes for her.

She is a walking human gaffe mill.

In 2008, it felt like it was story after story of the Clinton campaign scrambling to cover highly damaging unforced statements from the candidate and her surrogates. And that was in a Democratic primary.

Unleashing her in the general? God help us.

I truly think our only hope is that Republicans nominate someone absolutely unelectable. And even then, we'll have to buckle in for 4-8 years of Demcorp policies and appointments continuing to bleed away the American middle class.

(Welcome back, btw!)

[closeupready]

26. If she loses in the general (which I do think will happen),

and we get a GOP White House, then if his first term is a disaster, would we have a better shot at winning it back in 2020 than if he was moderately successful for two terms?

[Prism]

28. Depends on the candidate

If we run someone like Elizabeth Warren, we would have a solid chance. If we nominate another Kerry (who was very lackluster and had very little charisma), it would be a potential problem.

And then there's the question of whether or not we can wrestle Congress back.

I think, if a Republican wins next year, we almost might be better off with Trump rather than Rubio or Bush. I just don't see the GOP establishment playing nice with a Trump.

With an establishment president, who knows what they'd ram through.

[closeupready]

29. Trump is definitely to best outcome on a list of bad ones.

Kerry, I've become convinced, didn't really want it, after all. He ran for it, for whatever reason, but when he realized he'd have to really fight, and give up some of his private-life privileges, he was like Jeb, 'if I can't just stake a claim, end of story, then I've got better things to do.'

[Jarqui]

31. If she loses, which I think is likely - she's already behind in the battleground states now -

then the Dems are likely to lose down the ticket.

Along with the gerrymandering and Koch money, there's a darn good chance the GOP hold the House and Senate.

With a GOP president, House & Senate, goodbye Obamacare and many of the good things that we worked so hard for in 2006-8 that have been achieved over the last 7 years, hello new GOP war somewhere and things like income inequality, immigrant deportation/reform, environment/climate change, gun control, economy, corporations owning our politicians, etc, etc are going nowhere we like.

It's depressing and frightening to contemplate but not that far fetched right now. Look at the head to head polls in the battleground states while realizing a well known candidate has a tougher time getting their numbers to go higher.

[restorefreedom]

27. from my contacts in colorado,

they are big on bernie. don't think she has a chance there anymore

[Dawson Leery]

30. The Quinnipiac poll (R-New Haven) has Cruz beating Hillary in the General Election.

Think about that for a moment.

Sad little Bernistas will find anything to hit Hillary with.

[ibegurpard]

32. yeah

That's pretty fucking terrifying don't you think? And if you think it couldn't happen you must have been a kid in 2000 and 2004 and most certainly don't know anything about Reagan.

[cali]

33. Sad little hilyarians can't deal with a simple post about polling trends regarding

the general election.

[dsc]

40. I did discuss why I think the poll is wrong, you ignored it, surprise.

[Beacool]

54. The truth is that some of you are under the misconception that Sanders is electable.

How so? How's a self described "Democratic Socialist" going to win in a general election. That's more wishful thinking than reality.

[dsc]

35. If Cruz or Rubio or Trump

beat any Democrat, let alone Hillary, in the women's vote in Colorado I will climb Mt. Everest in the nude. This poll has Rubio up by 9 among women, Cruz up by 5 among women (the numbers vs Sanders are 7 and 4 respectively). Now again, if this happens on election day I will climb Mt. Everest in nude.

[OilemFirchen]

37. Sanders loses to them all as well.

Against the only potential nominee among those listed (Rubio) they are tied.

Your concern is noted.

[Robbins]

39. Your forgetting

Bernie has room to grow.she doesn't.People know all about clinton.They don't know that much about bernie due to MSM and DNC.

[OilemFirchen]

42. I'm not forgetting anything.

In the cited poll, there are 15% "Don't know / NA". Of those 15%, some are undecided. If you give all of them to Sanders, the result is Clinton 55%, Sanders 42%.

BTW, among those self-identifying as "Very Liberal" that category is 6%. The largest uncommitted category is "Moderate / Conservative" at 18%.

[jeff47]

43. Apparently you're forgetting this thread is talking about the general election.

It is quite possible to win the Democratic primary and then lose the general election. Showing a Clinton/Sanders match-up really doesn't change the general election results from the poll.

[OilemFirchen]

47. And, as I stated, both lose to all of the listed Republicans.

The theoretical lack of name recognition wouldn't significantly impact those numbers, especially considering Sanders' inability to win the nomination. I'd think both observations are relevant.

[jeff47]

44. I'm looking forward to all the "serious" people declaring that Clinton was too liberal.

Third way can not fail! It can only be failed!

[demwing]

45. BTW - Welcome back

[ieoeja]

50. Already gone again.

One questionable hide. One good hide. Gone til December 6th.

[demwing]

61. well...fuck this shit

[EndElectoral]

46. She would definitely galvanize the Republican base.

[MaggieD]

48. So is Bernie

Maybe him branding the party as socialist isn't helping. You think?

[Beacool]

49. And Sanders would do better?

"Among Democrats, Clinton has a clear lead with 55% support to Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders' 27% and former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley's 2%."

[ibegurpard]

52. using the logic that all the Democrats will vote for Democratic nominee

Yes.

[Beacool]

53. Nonsense.

Hillary will do better in any of these states than Sanders.

[peacebird]

51. I don't think she will win the nomination, but I am sure if she does that she will lose the general

[LonePirate]

57. I would love to hear how Clinton loses the GE.

There is absolutely no indication the blue wall is crumbling. She will win 90%+ of the Black vote. She will win 70+% of the Latino vote. She will likely improve on the 56% of the female vote which Obama received in 2012. She likely receives well north of 60% of the millenial vote. How in the world does she lose the GE when none of these things are in question?

[Hepburn]

58. Link?

[TwilightGardener]

60. Because whether those groups you cite actually go out and vote is a different story.

[TwilightGardener]

59. If it's Trump or Cruz, the media will help her out, big time.

If it's Rubio or Bush (safe establishment guy who can follow orders and not be insane) it will be more difficult.

[panader0]

62. Kick