What matters are the state polls from the states in which their primaries are upcoming.
The states that have impending primaries are the states in which the campaigns are geared up. Their campaign ads are running, they are doing public appearances and rallies and most importantly--the voters are fully engaged and paying attention.
If you look at Iowa, it's quite interesting. Obama was behind by 10 in Iowa, at this point during the 2008 primary. Sanders is now behind by 15 in Iowa.
Obama trailed in EVERY SINGLE national poll (during the fall before the Iowa caucuses). Hillary lead them all. She also led in ALL STATES--and in most by 30+ points. I remember her leading by 50 points in many state polls.
The truth is--the national polls and the polls in these states--where the campaigns haven't even begun and the people are not paying attention--mean nothing.
Hillary had the "bazillion to two" phenomena going on in 2008, and Obama won the nomination.
If you want to look an accurate bellwether, look at Iowa and NH--the first states to vote. I would say the numbers will change even further as the campaigns have not reached their pinnacles. There's not a lot of events happening, but I imagine things will kick into high gear within the next few weeks.
Hillary may win Iowa. She may not. She may win the whole thing. She may not. Given what we saw happen in 2008, it's anyone's race to win.
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